September 13-17, 2010

[Saving ATWT]

I'm speaking about one week in which OLTL will be going head to head with 'special' programming that has been promoed by both soap and mainstream press. In general, OLTL is doing well, better than AMC, better than ATWT did, and will quickly rebound. I disagree with people who don't think OLTL will pick up viewers, in particular with the 18-49 demo. Older viewers do have set patterns; however, younger people have more flex and might end up really liking the youth-based stories on One Life. Maybe older viewers are just burned out with the genre. Remember, no other soap will be on air against OLTL to any new viewer won't have another option. I tend to think GH is out rating Days because it is the only 3pm option. I'd hate to see GH ratings if the show was up against Y&R...damn

[quartermainefan]

That is very optimistic, but history does not bear this out. Where did the 2 million Passions viewers go to? Where did the 2 million Port Charles viewers go to at 12:30?

It just seems when a soap goes off the air, the audience just goes away. I hope you are right though, but this doesn't seem too likely.

[Saving ATWT]

I consider this situation a lot different than other examples such as AW, Passions or even shows in the 3pm EST slot like SB. Firstly, it is earlier in the day--CBS has 2.3 HH watching B&B and it seems like some of these fans will want drama and not more TALK. OLTL will have no soap up against it, a captive audience. I do not predict the show will get Bell sort of ratings; however, the gains made could be enough to make OLTL the top ABC soap. All three shows are very close in the ratings so even a modest gain would be enough just enough to place One Life on a ratings par with GH. For the last three months, AMC, OLTL, GH, Days, and ATWT have basically been in a dead heat--.4 points doesn't mean jack to a network and does little to impact ad pricing. Also, this should give OLTL modest gains in demos. ATWT didn't get that much youth but there is a steady core up for grabs and these viewers are not old enough to be burned out on the genre or remember the good old days of extras and overall quality. BTW, ever notice that CBS tends to write their young characters a bit older and their kids are more Macy while ABC is more AE Outfitters? The younger characters on OLTL all look rather Ken and Barbie

[Eric83]

I just don't get why people who have been watching ATWT for YEARS will just now start watching OLTL. My mom has watched ATWT since the 70's, and now that it's gone she is down to just watching Y&R, and will watch the L&O repeats or a movie on Lifetime, or one she saved on her DVR.

OLTL may get a few ex-ATWT watchers, but they're not going to get enough to show a significant increase in ratings. It's just illogical.

It's still illgoical to think it will drop .3 out of nowhere. You've given OLTL a 1.5 in other predictions. For some odd reason you never thought it was the slighest bit possible ATWT would be in last place. LOL

[Cyberologist]

That seems to be a pattern for quite a few years now for the most part.

No Fringe Report means something is up. They don't waste time tooting their

horn when its all good.

[Saving ATWT]

First, this isn't about me liking or disliking any particular show. There were weeks I predicted ATWT would rank 1.5--that was GL rank during the final months. I am shocked neither ATWT or OLTL has done it so far considering they have both hit 1.6. Last week was good for all soaps; however, people tuned in for the second to last week of ATWT and lifted the how up to fouth place. There has been a lot of press about the finale and that puts it on a par with 'special' programming which can wreck competing shows. It is very logical to expect a .3 movement--and that is a very small movement that, say 5 years ago, would not have even been noticed.

Your mom is older and older people tend to have more set viewing patterns. People 40 and below show a lot of shifting when it comes to viewing and will find the content they want on any channel or online. The tail end of Gen X and Y are not network loyalists who stay glued to the same channel for three hours. This is why Mad men does well with the young and quite poorly with older viewers. This is why Y&R is number one in key demos yet ATWT was last with those same viewer. Yes, your mom will not flip channels but OLTL could easily pick up 500,000 new viewers, mostly young, especially as the economy tanks and people drop cable. There is nothing illogical about such a conclusion. I've seen a lot of people site the end of AW and SFT and point to how the event had no impact of ratings for surviving shows. Those were pre-digital times and do not relate. GL was in many markets a morning soap so, again, does not relate. SB has such weak ratings that it can't really be cited. I will say that GH is only #2 in demos cause it has to other soap to fight off. It wins by default and not because of Guza's stunts. OLTL is actually a far better show and will do quite well over the next few months.

Also, it is illogical to think that the finale of a 54 year old soap that is getting a lot of press would rank last place. The show was bad last week and still came in at 4th place.

PS: .1 is only about, give or take, 100,000 viewers so there is nothing illogical about OLTL taking that sort of hit this week (-300,000); also, in the weeks to come, there is nothing illogical about OLTL gaining 300,000 ex ATWT viewers out of 2.4 million which would give it a very logical 2.0-2.1 in Households. This is just basic math. Math is logical, viewing trends are logical but you are not.

[marceline]

ATWT viewers will not switch to OLTL. Hell, they were barely watching ATWT. All this means is that Law & Order just picked up a bunch of new viewers.

[NYC123]

I agree. OLTL will NOT pick up ATWT viewers. People are not going to turn to a different channel to watch a different soap. People who watched ATWT will be completely out of the soap world. Period.

[DRW50]

I agree that OLTL won't pick up ATWT viewers but OLTL did have John holding a globe on Monday's episode, and they recapped all the stories for new viewers. I wonder if this Monday or Tuesday will have any ratings spike.

If OLTL was thinking about that then they would bring in a beloved ATWT actor for a brief stint, as they are doing with Kim Zimmer. This could help sort of draw people in who loved P&G soaps.

I wish they would have Colleen Zenk Pinter as a not really dead Melinda, or as a new Edwina, or something. Or Eileen Fulton could make recurring appearances as some sort of major stockholder at BE or something.

[Saving ATWT]

I still say 3-400,000 ex ATWT viewers will make the switch to OLTL making One Life the top ABC soap. The ABC shows are almost tied and this should be enough to put OLTL on top or, at the leastm save it from the ax. Bye, AMC

[me4ryky]

The idea that one show will benefit from another's demise is very idealistic in this digital age. I'm not old, but I guess I am set in my ways. I watched CBS when I lived with my parents years ago, but I've watched GH since grade school. I watched because my friends watched. I no longer watch CBS soaps since I no longer live with my mother. If GH went off the air, I'd be done. Actually, I haven't enjoyed it for the past few years & my viewing has diminished drastically. If they don't put out what I consider quality, then I'm not watching. I'm not going to switch soaps and suffer through figuring out who's who just because it airs at a convenient time.

[edgeofnik]

After ATWT ratings didn't change a bit after AW went off the air, even though they picked up 4 AW characters, were P&G soaps, etc., I realized that it's pretty rare for viewers to just switch networks because they like soaps -- the reason they tuned in everyday, was because they LOVED their soap and were loyal to it. It's really too bad it doesn't work that way.

[marceline]

Exactly. It's not like people have a hole in their schedule that must be filled by another soap. It just means their DVR has one less show on it.

Soaps aren't just competing with other soaps, they compete with everything else on television. They're competing with L&O, the Food Network, Gilmore Girls reruns, etc.. and when you look at daily viewings of L&O or Cold Case they function as a soap, just with far better writing and production.

[NYC123]

Wow 300-400k. That's NOT happening for ANY Soap.

I know many ATWT fans who just said they are DONE with soaps in general. I really do wish that viewers will just swtich to different soaps. IMO ATWT fans will tune into CBS soap. Fans usually stay within their networks. Very rarely do we see people tunning into a different network after their soap is gone.

What happend to Passion viewers? They didn't go to ATWT or OLTL. What happends to PC viewers? That didn't help the ABC lineup. What happend to AW viewers. Didn't help CBS/ABC. We gotta face it. As the shows get canceled they ain't switching. Most of them are done. Once AMC/OLTL/GH is gone I am done with soaps.

[Sylph]

I haven't asked you this in a long time, though I think I did do it once: do you still think soaps will be resurrected at one point in the future and what do you believe the format will be? A lot like today's daytime soap operas or something more in the vein of a telenovela?