The Politics Thread

[DRW50]

 

Are there any polls from MN?

Zucker loves Trump so he'd love to help him win Miinnesota with fawning coverage, and it's a state that is predominantly white, which could also help him. I wonder if Trump going there is more of a head game than anything else though. It gives me bad memories of 2000 when W was doing the same in places like California. The Supreme Court made sure he won. I hope that doesn't mean the rig is in for Trump as well. 

 

Momentum does seem to be very much going Trump's way. I hope the early vote and Obama and others working so hard to motivate voters will be enough. The Senate is likely already gone, which is bad enough, but a GOP Congress and Trump would be hell beyond telling.

Edited November 5, 2016 by DRW50

[Vee]

I don't know where you're getting this. Every article, media report (and poll) I've seen explicitly says Hillary has the momentum, not Trump. She's also still well in the lead. The Nevada early turnout alone has many pundits burying him.

 

And no, I don't think he wins Michigan. I also don't think we'll lose the Senate.

Edited November 5, 2016 by Vee

[JaneAusten]

You do realize that combined CNN, MSNBC, and Fox draw 10 million viewers at most. So exactly explain to me how these networks are representative of the American people. They cater to old white people.

 

There are no polls or momentum showing Trump having any chances to win Minnesota or Michigan. Clinton had ONE BAD POLL in Michigan and all of a sudden the sky is falling. And in what world do you live unless you glue yourself to CNN telling you Trump has all the momentum. Are you even paying attention to the Latinx vote and what happened yesterday? Good grief Carl I am a pessimist but you really are way ahead of me.

 

Clinton in the last few days has regained her footing. And now there are 2 new polls out today showing her ahead by 1 in both Ohio and Iowa but ok Trump has all the momentum, He fired his pollster so he doesn't have any internal polling telling him anything is reachable in Michigan and Minnesota. And inside sources now say his goal is to beat Romney's electoral college count. And by the way with the close race in Arizona and the continuation of Latinx voters being underpolled and the high Latinx turnout there don't be shocked to see Clinton take Arizona and see Texas closer than projected.

 

And I am going to Iowa tomorrow with many carloads of HRC volunteers to help GOTV there. My niece told me dozens of charter buses were lined up at Clinton campaign HQ in Brooklyn with volunteers going to PA to help canvas there today and tomorrow.

[DRW50]

 

I don't think they're representative of the American people - I do think they set the narrative that can affect votes and depress turnout. 

 

I mostly follow sites like TPM and Politico, and they've shown tightening polls in MI, NH, etc. with some states or reports that suggest Clinton or a toss-up (FL, NV, NC). I don't bother with CNN, as they're in the tank for Trump. But I was going off that post soapsuds made which suggests they're pushing hard that he's going to win MN and MI, and combined with some of the polls for MI it made me wonder more about the momentum shift toward him in the final days. 

[JaneAusten]

NC and FL have been close so what is the news there. Michigan I don't buy and NH has likely tightened. But I will ask you again. Have you been paying attention to the fact Latinx voting is up this year by 130%? Do you know Latinx's are underpolled(Obama was polled to win Nevada by 2% in 2012 and won by 6%) and the turnout is much higher than 2008? I don't know what to tell you. One of the Nevada polls I saw had 0 latinx's in it so with the incredible turnout for Latinx's you think those polls are accurate. I work with 3 latinx teachers and we have discussed the election off and on for months and they have ALL said Latinx people are going to turn out this year like you have never seen. And they have all said Univision and Telemundo have been hammering Trump for months as well as Latinx radio and papers. They all said turnout was going to be high in 2016 for Latinx voters and was going to be their year. And it's way up in Florida in fact much higher than even Clinton's campaign projected.  I guess if you want to continue to be pessimistic that's fine but when there is actual evidence seen yesterday in Nevada and Arizona that turnout is high(not a poll number) and you'd rather believe polls that doesn't include Latinx voters I can't convince you otherwise. There is always a chance that things could turn out worse but frankly I don't see the evidence myself at this point. I guess we can agree to disagree.

Edited November 5, 2016 by JaneAusten

[ThePrinceOfSunspear]

Where are you getting that momentum is with trump tho DRW50?

 

i think whatever impact this FBI stuff might have has was stalled by Wednesday/Thursday. Only certain cites and channels were still harping on about it and no polls showed a major dip for the Secretary because of it. Not even Politico. 

 

At at this point I just want it to be over. Hillary and her team are so smart tho with all these events/concerts with the celebs to build up turnout. 

[DRW50]

 

You don't have to tell me anything. You're free to put me on ignore if you wish. I'm just giving my opinion that I feel like he has momentum and even if he doesn't, the media is making sure people think he does, likely to help depress Democratic turnout. I've heard about the higher Latino vote turnout, yes, and I've heard about the concerns about depressed voter turnout with other groups, which I thought was getting better, and yet yesterday or early today I ended up seeing articles saying Democrats are still worried about it. So it seems like a mixed picture. Right now I'd say she will win narrowly, with Republicans sweeping downticket races. I just don't really know where the race is because so many want him to win, from Russia, to the FBI, to the press, and I'm used to a lot of Republicans falling in line and independent voters buckling to fear, while Democrats are more hesitant. Hopefully that won't be true this time around. It's just that we're still hearing in the last days before voting about more polls going his way, his moving into more safe blue states, etc. It gives me bad flashbacks to years like 2000 where even with Gore winning the popular vote, the rig came in for W and Karl Rove. 

[DramatistDreamer]

And keep in mind that tomorrow (Sunday) is Souls to the Polls day when many Black Churches have initiatives to get their congregants in the early voting states to go and vote.

[JaneAusten]

I don't want to put you on ignore. I enjoy reading a lot of what you post. And maybe the pessimism is something I tend to see in myself. And if I sounded condescending I apologize. This election more than any other is very personal for me for many reasons.  The gender card is something so many want to ignore because she's Hillary Clinton but to me it stands front and center in terms of everything else and explains the negativity everywhere about her.

[Vee]

The media is clearly reporting on Hillary's momentum, though. Literally, it's headlines and stories with the words "Hillary" and "momentum". We can only blame the media so far. I understand being worried, but there's a difference between legitimate concern and letting the concern-trolling of overhyped outlier polls or right-leaning Politico get the best of us. Most everything is moving in Hillary's direction. I'm not seeing polls going his way, I'm not seeing serious and consistent or reliable reporting claiming he has truly breached the blue wall. And I'd need more than outliers or a handful of headlines to buy into that kind of counter-narrative. There's a reason the mainstream press isn't running with it, either.

Edited November 6, 2016 by Vee

[DramatistDreamer]

Nate Silver is in full Twitter meltdown, it seems. People are challenging him and he doesn't like it one bit. This election has taken its toll on a lot of people, so it seems. Folks are losin' it.

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Edited November 6, 2016 by DramatistDreamer

[ThePrinceOfSunspear]

Exactly I mean let's be rational about this. / healthy dose of fear is good to make sure people turn out but at the same time we have to blatantly obvious. 

 

The media wants ratings. The only way to get them is for this election to appear close so people can tune it immediately at 7pm to see what's going to happen. The narrative has to be "its close and Hillary may lose."

 

That doesn't mean a single thing.

 

at this point the only thing I'm worried about is if Hassan will win over Ayotte in New Hampshire and if a miracle will occur in Florida and Murphy ekes it out over Rubio....

[Vee]

Meanwhile, Nate Silver is losing his [!@#$%^&*] on Twitter over having his (overly-cautious, IMO) polling model questioned. He factors in every single outlier and BS poll and then his model becomes schizoid. I think he's a good guy but he got flattened by having Trump win the primaries - which he insisted couldn't happen - and has been wildly overcompensating ever since, and it's made him irrational and his model deeply flawed.

[JaneAusten]

He is overly compensating and he's even been caught unskewing polls and his explanation frankly didn't make sense.

 

I think who's especially getting under his skin are the PEC followers(Sam Wang). Wang is the only one from close to the beginning who predicted Trump was going to win and everyone laughed at him. He stood his ground. And people also talk to Silver and Wang about Brexit while Silver insists the polling got it wrong and Wang said from the beginning polling was a tossup. I think it kills Nate that Wang has been the most accurate predictor in 2008, 2012 and now but unlike Silver, Wang does this more as a side project because he knows people are interested and he's interested. And his predictions in all the elections including the senate elections in both years were 100% correct. Silver may have gotten the presidential race in 2012 and all the states right but he didn't get the senate correct.

 

Wang is a good guy and conceded to Silver on the Baseball playoffs because he doesn't "know" baseball but otherwise the election? Those were Wang's words not mine lol.

 

Silver has almost turned into a pundit. Some of those articles on 538 are utterly ridiculous and worthless.

[ThePrinceOfSunspear]

What is PEC?