DRW50

I couldn't get much rest either. I hope you have a good night.

Sorry if this was already posted. Jon Ralston, a big Nevada forecaster, has, after mentioning the strong Republican turnout for weeks, suggested that Harris will win the state - narrowly. Very narrowly. He was a few points off in other elections so the same may be true here, but we'll hope for the best. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/editor-jon-ralstons-2024-nevada-election-predictions Joe Rogan endorsed Trump. Probably something that would have had much more of an effect weeks ago and seems to have been heavily manipulated by Elon. Still, in such a tight race anything can make a difference.

He's so two-faced, given that he was calling Harris "trash" tonight. Speaking of trash, some white nationalist got fired from their campaign recently (compared to the many who are still there). https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/04/white-nationalist-trump-campaign-00187282 Seeing some of them trying to use Tim Alberta to launder their images makes me roll my eyes, but if Trump does lose, I hope this means they will finally move on and stop trying to dredge up the new version of him.

One of the reasons the GOP and their outlets have ramped up the extremist rhetoric is likely to further numb the average citizen into accepting or encouraging violence. Comparisons to Nazi Germany are overdone but I do think we are heading that way in terms of public response to slaughter. I think Elon is power-mad and his anxieties over aging and one of his children transitioning made him the perfect target for the bro brainwashing. And he was apparently always a shitty person, whether or not he used to support candidates who weren't shitty. I stay on Twitter because there is still TV and movie discussion I won't get elsewhere, and some of the political talk still draws me in, but I don't know if I can without drastic changes.

Thank you @TheyStartedOnSoaps Always a delightful surprise to get "new" material from this period. I am so enthralled with Rita Lloyd's work as Lucille.

A pro-Trump influencer says a Russian agent paid him $100 to post a fake voter fraud video. It wasn’t the first time | CNN Politics

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/11/04/election-deniers-were-aimless-now-with-musks-help-theyre-an-army/

The fight for the Latino vote in one Pennsylvania county. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/04/latinos-decide-election-pennsylvania-00186534 The article is better than the propagandistic title.

There are few of us who pay attention to most of this to begin with, but the biggest difference is a lot of the ugly moments that get coverage end up being tied to simpler talking points for voters - the dogs and cats stuff about immigration, this nonsense about squirrels as government overreach in blue states, the FCC complaint about the media being against him, etc. One of the reasons the Puerto Rico stuff may have hurt Trump is because it wasn't tied to any of those themes a lot of voters seem to (if polls are any indication) be focused on this year. I think we see that Trump, but when people are dressing up in garbage bags at his behest, I am never sure if we are in the minority. I guess we'll know in a few days.

Apparently, Trump got some free advertising on NBC due to one of his FCC picks pitching a fit over the SNL cameo being so close to the election. Just another reason I wish her campaign had had second thoughts as even a puff piece ended up with churn to "prove" the system is against him. I can't remember if it was @Vee who posted this a while back or if I am mixing it up with another article, but even with Tim Alberta being GOP-sympathetic, it did give me insight into the two worlds of the Trump campaign and how his campaign managers have been forced into the old "let Trump be Trump" mentality at his events even as they stick to a more traditional campaign elsewhere. (they also try to blame a lot of the ugliness like cats and dogs and MSG on one staffer, which seems convenient) https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/trump-2024-campaign-lewandowski-conway/680456/ The news cycle is dominated with distractions about squirrels, raccoons, dogs, cats, garbage, drowning out positive stories from Harris, while his ads that are constantly on stick to much narrower topics - immigration, economy, and insisting Harris is the same as Biden. The same stuff Wasserman (who gave the game away on his views back in 2022) wants him to do at rallies. There's also a large amount of transphobia in the ads, of course. I don't know if the latter moves voters, but the rest is what has kept the election close, and I don't think it's gone away. The visibly decayed Trump of his rallies isn't the man half or more of the country see. They make him their own, whatever they need him to be. It takes so much to change that, and I am not sure this is the year or candidate who will make that happen, if any candidate even could.

I would have liked that. Bringing Tom back when John Bolger was there could have worked, as it's not like he worked long with Grant anyway.

This would have been a year or so after Michael was let go from AMC due to his issues so I think P&G would have been wary. I appreciated the Ross/Philip relationship, but I never thought it was strong enough to where the full absence of Justin for all those years was warranted. I think there was still story for him, and I might have brought Jackie back from the dead - maybe she had to fake her death because of some criminal activity she witnessed, or something along those lines. She might have started a new family while she was in hiding.

It's a shame there is so much baggage with Melissa Reeves as even with all of that and even with knowing how many years she phoned in her work, it still feels right to me seeing her back as Jennifer. Nice to see Marie back too. I'm glad they saw that as a moment to include in the promo. Who shot EJ? More like can they send some Alex's way next...

Thanks. I was mostly just going on that poll and some of the other polls/early voting stuff but hopefully she can get the Blue Wall.

Thanks. It's hard for me to imagine her struggling in the Blue Wall and taking Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia, but we'll see. Is that the same polling where the race was tied nationally or is this a later version?

You're right about the poll being a barometer, it's just difficult to know how much of a barometer it is this year when few polls have shown the same result for her in the Midwest in places that have gone Democratic more recently than Iowa has. I see that Morning Consult put out a bunch of polls tonight that have Trump winning all the swing states (they didn't poll Nevada) but PA (tied), AZ (tied), Michigan (Harris +1). They had been more on Harris' side earlier, IIRC, rather than being known as a GOP poll. So it's another reason the Iowa result is a big question mark for me. I do see what you are saying about Selzer, and I want to believe it's true.

There's also a political cameo in this sketch. The sketch is...decent, I suppose. It works better if you've never seen the earlier versions, especially the one in 2019.

I wouldn't say that I think Harris is being too bold or confident. I think she's been cautious as she was often right to be and then when that wasn't working as well, has come out a bit more in the last month or so of the race. I just think it's the wrong show to go on right before an election that is so fought along class lines because the show is often seen as an old liberal nag these days, fodder for endless material with the left and right. No one is basing their vote on SNL, they never were (2000 might be the only time), but it's not where I would have gone in such a close race. I think the Selzer poll is wrong not so much because of my fears and more because I don't remember Harris or any of her surrogates going there, so if they didn't see it, I think they must have known more than we do. It certainly could be right, but it's just come out of nowhere compared to how he's polling in other Midwestern states. Given that Selzer is a respected pollster, it makes me wonder what is going on with polling in general, considering that Trump has outperformed polling twice and now suddenly this pops up. The situation from four years ago is one of the reasons I'm going to struggle with the election until after the fact. Everything should have gone the right way then, but Trump still nearly won, and is polling better and performing better in the swing states now than he was in 2020. So much has to be different from 2016 and from 2020, and so much has to swim against (if we believe polls) the public sentiment about Biden and about the direction of the country. When something like that Iowa poll comes along that seemingly has no grounds and even the pollster themselves seemed confused by, I end up being more hesitant about what we don't know and what other surprises, some not as good, may be here Tuesday night. I want to believe it can happen, but right now I just go back to much support Trump has and how much history tends to repeat itself. All I can hope is somehow that doesn't happen this time.

I don't think you're wrong, I just think Justin was a character he could have more easily slid into because he probably could have played the lighter moments and he did work decently well with Grant. The only thing missing is the intensity.

Since they changed directors around the late '00s the actors seem to stare much more openly at cue cards. There are still parts of SNL I enjoy (not tonight, admittedly), but the political cold opens have been the worst part of the show for at least 20 years and this one didn't change my opinion. I do think Kamala was fun and she and Maya had a good rapport. I'd recommend people just skip the leadup, unless they want to see a lot of "well this happened" and chewing scenery. James Austin Johnson is also very good as Trump, as he doesn't try to play him as "cute" or "funny," but I hope I never have to see that impression again soon.

I'm really heading into 2016 PTSD now - SNL in the political narrative (with some already trying to spin this as her not going to Michigan instead of New York when she didn't have anything scheduled tonight anyway), rosy polling, Trump seeming downbeat. Dave Weigel mentioned that Ann Selzer herself doesn't want to be known as any gold standard, so I don't think she is putting this out for attention or because she's being paid to do so. It does make me wonder compared to some of the early voting reports in places like Wisconsin, where there were claims of a low vote in Milwaukee, a vote in the big "WoW" counties that lean more conservative, that sleazo Halperin claiming that some from both parties believe Harris will lose Wisconsin, etc. So I wonder if this poll is off that means the other Midwest polls are also leaning too much to Harris. I think I'm just too burnt out after 2016 to ever not wonder when the rug is being yanked away. Everything just feels off and wrong.

He also could have made a good Justin, potentially.

I agree, but I do think an image of Erica settled into a New York penthouse, occasionally modeling but mostly behind the scenes now, maybe with visits from her daughters and grandchildren, coyly telling us of her new romance (with a man we won't see [sorry to Jackson/Erica fans but I'd rather the guy stay unknown), would be a good farewell for her.

I completely missed that Ron had been hired at Beyond the Gates. Why? He's not that great a writer, and what if he goes off on social media again? Is this just down to connections?