DRW50

I wouldn't say that I think Harris is being too bold or confident. I think she's been cautious as she was often right to be and then when that wasn't working as well, has come out a bit more in the last month or so of the race. I just think it's the wrong show to go on right before an election that is so fought along class lines because the show is often seen as an old liberal nag these days, fodder for endless material with the left and right. No one is basing their vote on SNL, they never were (2000 might be the only time), but it's not where I would have gone in such a close race. I think the Selzer poll is wrong not so much because of my fears and more because I don't remember Harris or any of her surrogates going there, so if they didn't see it, I think they must have known more than we do. It certainly could be right, but it's just come out of nowhere compared to how he's polling in other Midwestern states. Given that Selzer is a respected pollster, it makes me wonder what is going on with polling in general, considering that Trump has outperformed polling twice and now suddenly this pops up. The situation from four years ago is one of the reasons I'm going to struggle with the election until after the fact. Everything should have gone the right way then, but Trump still nearly won, and is polling better and performing better in the swing states now than he was in 2020. So much has to be different from 2016 and from 2020, and so much has to swim against (if we believe polls) the public sentiment about Biden and about the direction of the country. When something like that Iowa poll comes along that seemingly has no grounds and even the pollster themselves seemed confused by, I end up being more hesitant about what we don't know and what other surprises, some not as good, may be here Tuesday night. I want to believe it can happen, but right now I just go back to much support Trump has and how much history tends to repeat itself. All I can hope is somehow that doesn't happen this time.

I don't think you're wrong, I just think Justin was a character he could have more easily slid into because he probably could have played the lighter moments and he did work decently well with Grant. The only thing missing is the intensity.

Since they changed directors around the late '00s the actors seem to stare much more openly at cue cards. There are still parts of SNL I enjoy (not tonight, admittedly), but the political cold opens have been the worst part of the show for at least 20 years and this one didn't change my opinion. I do think Kamala was fun and she and Maya had a good rapport. I'd recommend people just skip the leadup, unless they want to see a lot of "well this happened" and chewing scenery. James Austin Johnson is also very good as Trump, as he doesn't try to play him as "cute" or "funny," but I hope I never have to see that impression again soon.

I'm really heading into 2016 PTSD now - SNL in the political narrative (with some already trying to spin this as her not going to Michigan instead of New York when she didn't have anything scheduled tonight anyway), rosy polling, Trump seeming downbeat. Dave Weigel mentioned that Ann Selzer herself doesn't want to be known as any gold standard, so I don't think she is putting this out for attention or because she's being paid to do so. It does make me wonder compared to some of the early voting reports in places like Wisconsin, where there were claims of a low vote in Milwaukee, a vote in the big "WoW" counties that lean more conservative, that sleazo Halperin claiming that some from both parties believe Harris will lose Wisconsin, etc. So I wonder if this poll is off that means the other Midwest polls are also leaning too much to Harris. I think I'm just too burnt out after 2016 to ever not wonder when the rug is being yanked away. Everything just feels off and wrong.

He also could have made a good Justin, potentially.

I agree, but I do think an image of Erica settled into a New York penthouse, occasionally modeling but mostly behind the scenes now, maybe with visits from her daughters and grandchildren, coyly telling us of her new romance (with a man we won't see [sorry to Jackson/Erica fans but I'd rather the guy stay unknown), would be a good farewell for her.

I completely missed that Ron had been hired at Beyond the Gates. Why? He's not that great a writer, and what if he goes off on social media again? Is this just down to connections?

Another example of how "fun" Trump is, according to the press. He has gotten cruder and cruder and people just say oh that's fun (probably trying to drive up the crude sexist attacks against Harris). I still can't post tweets but here's one screenshot that shows just how mask off many of these pollsters have gone. Adam Carlson called out this firm for retweeting a Kari Lake tweet praising them.

If this was B&B they wouldn't even exist. The promo is nice by modern DAYS standards, although the music gives me Peapack-era GL.

Nate Silver was complaining about Republican pollsters that always need to have Trump ahead by 1 and herding, basically calling them cowards. It does seem like a common trend. I do think that Trump is going to overperform polls again, so I can see why they are cautious, but they should just stop polling altogether. They won't because they don't want to lose that money. One positive of the polls, real or fake, is they are at least convincing more who are supporting Harris or leaning toward doing so to feel their vote counts. There was a poll out today claiming Trump is only ahead by 3 in Ohio. I don't buy that (if I'm wrong I'll be thrilled) and it feels like something whipped up for the sake of complacency. I also saw Mehdi Hasan criticizing Kamala for not going to Dearborn and what an opening this gave Trump. It annoyed me, because I know that if she had gone, she would have been torn to pieces - she's already gotten so much hostility at rallies as it is. In 2019, Kamala had a talk with Ady Barkan, a big healthcare advocate who passed away from ALS last year. At the time only ten minutes were shown, but they've now released the full thing.

Thanks. Looks like Harding was enjoying himself...

@slick jones I already mentioned it to AWHP but in case it wasn't in your files, per what a commenter said on Youtube (and I think they're right as I know his face fairly well) Craig Stepp played Amanda's video dating patsy, Tim, on 1/5 and 2/2 1989.

I know it's been said a million times but I still can't believe they de-aged Alan Michael even further and tried to pair him with Marina. (and wasn't that the closest we ever got to Hope coming back, via some phone call where we didn't actually see her). By that point they would have ended up casting Julie Pinson as Hope...

Courtney still looked very good, IIRC, when she appeared with George Reinholt for a soap tribute in 1994 - having her return as Hope around then and clashing with a recently returned Alan could have worked. I'm sure some might say she was too old compared to the former Alan/Hope age differences, but then I thought Ron Raines was miscast as Alan anyway.

That's wonderful news. I am glad the new regime will get more breathing room and I'm glad the cast and crew will have work for a few more years. And as it turns out this may end up being the only relatively successful move from a daytime format to streaming.

Oh, they're aware of it - a lot of people profit from him being in power. That's the worst part - people know exactly what he is, and they still enable him or think they can will him into being what they want him to be. I think some things damage Trump temporarily but in the end they fade, because of the double standards the public and the media provide. He hired a comedian to make racist remarks at a hate rally and in less than a week the narrative is Trump triumphantly defending millions of Americans while working as a garbageman. And other than responding to what he says or does, Harris barely gets a word in, like Hillary by this point in 2016. Nobody else ever gets away with this. We're going into Tuesday with the possibility he could win big because of how many decades of enabling and crass go-along-to-get-along mentality this man is cocooned in.

I feel like the cult mentality has only worsened since that time as you have people wearing Maxi pads and garbage bags in his honor. That year also makes this year seem even more ominous to me because he only very narrowly lost while presiding over a pandemic. Now he is tied at worst, with a history of overperforming polls, while Harris is drowned out by everyone and everything (him, Musk, Cuban, Liz Cheney, a bad jobs report [there are reasons for that but those aren't what will get headlines, etc.). So much is pushing him the way he wants to go in these last days. I don't even know if the Cheney stuff hurts him because many morons on the left and the right will probably see this as him being "the peace candidate," and any time violence is riled up in voters, he tends to benefit. Speaking of which...America, 2024: Kamala Harris depicted as chained up during Pennsylvania Halloween parade, officials apologize for "allowing the offensive participants" - CBS Pittsburgh

Thanks. Wish anything of this would show up. The jargon of some in that area can be interesting. Never heard them talk of "meller" (melodrama).

It's probably a good thing I can't embed now because I would have posted a tweet of Megyn Kelly dressed in a garbage bag with a MAGA hat. That he is actually capable of making people wear garbage bags and garbageman outfits and is able to get the media to hang onto the likes of Mark Cuban's comments on The View, is why I just can't ever believe he's going to lose unless he does. The only part that makes me think he may be struggling in some places is that even his campaign people like Susie Wiles were making a big deal of the Cuban comments. The Trump campaign now glides through ginning up outrage to blot out any positive stories for Democrats, and Trump and his sycophants go around stating plainly to their donors/true believers what they will do (stop all vaccines, gut the economy, repeal the ACA, etc.) then just say "we never actually said that," because so many people will believe them. I did see, although I didn't watch the interview, that even Rogan pushed back some on JD Vance, which shows you just how wretched Vance is. I did laugh at Vance saying "normal gay guys" will vote for Trump. I'm not going to lie and say that a number of gay men are not going to vote for Trump, but I wonder if that was another moment of donor panic due to all the homophobia being spewed by the self-hating brigade (Josh Hawley claiming his opponent can't "shoot straight," a man appointed to a major board in Arkansas by Sarah Fuckabee Sanders spewing homophobic bile even though she has a gay deputy chief of staff, etc.) If you can find the clip of Lucas Kunce demolishing Hawley, it's worth a watch.

She left the show briefly in the early '80s and was fired in 2006, so those would have been the only two times.

Can't believe how goofy as hell this publicity shot I saw on Twitter is (it's from 2020). Probably the life Michael Quartermaine should have lived.

(first time this episode has been up for a while in full form, apparently) Not sure about this one:

So far many of the early voting analyses I've seen, and polling, etc. have leaned more toward Trump benefiting, so I wonder if Kirk and Cernovich are lying to keep voter turnout going, but I hope you're right. I tend to tale Axios as the full shill experience while Politico is more mixed (and Politico has more stuff I see elsewhere rather than just 'sources'), but they have seen better days. Thanks. The antivaxx clip is one I had tried to post. Amazing how quickly we've moved from them insisting it's only the COVID vaccine. More on the anti-vaxx guy:

I can't seem to embed tweets anymore...don't know if that's a screwup on my part or if it is a Twitter change.