DRW50

I think there were a number of factors. I think many were ready to hang Biden out to dry if not for the midterms. He held on as a result. And I'm sure he had some decent private polling on his behalf (although I remember some claim that some polling was kept from him - I don't know). He just started to very visibly struggle in front of the camera in the last few years. Trump also began opening up wide polling leads. Maybe if he had stayed in he would have rallied support. I'm sure there are some voters who would have voted for him that didn't go for Harris. But he would have likely walked into what was already being spun as a landslide, as everything - the economy, immigration, the media, Trump's shooting, Israel/Gaza - was going against him and the party. There were claims - again I don't know how valid they are - that many party leaders wanted Biden out but did not want Harris. They wanted the open primary, as the press also wanted. And Harris was the choice Biden wanted in order for him to agree to drop out. If they had done that then they would have been accused of sidelining a black woman, and the VP, which would have looked awful. Should they have tried? I don't know. I don't know if Newsom or Shapiro or whatever other Democratic action figure of the moment would have made a difference. I think in many ways this election was unwinnable. And, as @JaneAusten said, Harris became a sacrificial lamb. Three things the party needs to do is try to set up their own media ecosystem, try to connect with more non-white voters, and try to connect with male voters. Again, that's easy for me to say, not to figure out. I can't just say "go on Rogan" or "go on that neckbeard's podcast." And I don't think the party should try to go in a more sexist direction. But something has to change. In 2024 we were still having images of the VP nominee going around hunting to try to show us what a manly man he was. That didn't work in 2004 either. It's also easy for me to talk about outreach to non-white voters, but I think there must be some type of middle way between what we often have now with the Democratic Party - the Politico article I posted days ago about the Latino vote in Bucks County mentioned how the party was much more top down than the GOP. And as mentioned, they need to find a strong message that is about them and not in reaction to Republicans and find a media voice that will allow their message to be heard, instead of always being overshadowed by Trump or other extremists. It's so easy for people, me included, to get very politics-brained and see every two years as another set of cards to lay out. It's life and death and has to be treated that way. Every nominee and every vote on another piece of legislation to put us into the ground. But it can't just be about opposing. Democrats need to get their own ideas together and try to get them to break through. The GOP spent decades manipulating the public into accepting their identity and enabling it. Democrats don't have decades, as I don't even know if the planet has decades left, but they need to take this time in the wilderness to start punching back and finding what threads they can. And yes I know how glib that sounds. I just don't know how else to put it. There are a lot of people in leadership or quasi-leadership who just float around, always looking for a camera, rather than having anything to offer to the party in 2024. I think they also need to overhaul their social media entirely...the meme culture is often very cringe and something that only Trump gets away with. That culture is often used for voter participation, and it shouldn't be. I think it's almost inevitable. Many of us are, after all, seen as "the enemy within." And a lot of people will never care until it happens to them.

I've mostly been numb tonight, and that may be how I am from now on, but the closest to emotional I got was remembering that Harris was planning to give her speech at Howard. A moment that would have meant so much to her and so many other people. I've seen people chiding her for not coming out and making a statement, but I can't imagine how devastated she must have felt.

There have been a number of articles on this since 2020, mainly speaking of how he appeals to their machismo and many think of themselves as white, so they won't be affected by deportations. I would guess Stephen Miller wants many of them out of this country, but even if that starts happening, I am not sure he will lose support. He is teflon. The only question is if the hatemongers bankrolling him want to put the brakes on so they can win when he's gone or if they know they can just make sure we never have real elections again. Of course, articles aren't enough - I agree a postmortem is needed. A complete upheaval of the leadership and structure of the party is long overdue. I think back to 2012 when Republicans decided to completely ignore their postmortem and won. But Republicans always get what they want.

And his supporters will blame a lot of the non-white voters who showed up for Trump tonight. The tariffs are going to shoot prices sky high immediately. I genuinely don't know what most of us will do.

The response from them was "both are bad on Gaza, this will at least accelerate." They always like to say that because none of these plans ever affect them.

I saw an exit poll saying almost 30% of people who believe abortion should be legal voted for Trump. There was an interview on a Twitter account - I think his name is Peter Hamby - where he was interviewing college students. One said, essentially, "I've always heard how bad he is but I was fine and I'm still here." They have no idea about the guardrails he had in his first administration. They have no idea how much they and everyone they claim to love are going to lose. I struggle with everything and so does everyone I know. It's hard to think about just how bad it's going to get.

I appreciate your kind words. Honestly seeing how well Trump did in just about every state, in low/mid-single digits in places like New York or New Jersey (I know they have always had red pockets), I don't even know where the Democrats can go or where any sense of democracy can go. I think bigotry played a big part, it is endemic in this country and in Trump's existence, but even if Biden had chosen not to run again, even if Harris hadn't run, I'm not sure we'd be in a different place. Too many people just love Trump. The media and the public. He's currently at his most popular, if you believe polling. I could say after he's gone things will be different, but I'm not even sure what will be left.

Disappointed, if not shocked, Sherrod Brown lost. I know some felt his last campaign was too much to the right but given Ohio's turn I think it was understandable. He did a lot for people for a long time. His opponent is a piece of slime who was heavily backed up by crypto bros. One positive is Marcy Kaptur, a Congresswoman from Ohio who has survived many tough races, is, for now, still holding on.

Based on the reports of more white women voting, I did wonder if they'd lean to Trump again. Maybe voters think they had their say in 2022, or maybe they actually believe Trump's BS, laundered by the media, that abortion is up to the states, and he has no say in the matter and he's actually pro-choice and the king of IVF. I did think the media was losing influence, but clearly they are getting the result they wanted tonight, whether in spite of themselves or not. I don't even want to think about the blame game. I am guilty of it myself, but it's clear a lot of different groups jumped to the right. Pointing fingers will only further fracture a coalition in whatever time we have left with any freedoms. It seems like the polls were right this year - the one time I very much wish that hadn't been the case.

You're right - there is a special case of misogyny and misogynoir to factor in. There were claims during the early voting period of underperformance in Milwaukee, and a number of polls nationwide had Trump improving with black men. His campaign went in hard this time to try to get male voters of all races based on virulent hostility towards women. Not just the allies of his who want to repeal the 19th Amendment - the whole GOP campaign this year has been one of the most anti-female I can remember, to where even the days of Laura Bush or Elizabeth Dole trying to be "moderate" on an RNC night seem like radical feminism. I saw the ugliest racist and sexist attacks against Harris everywhere online for months on end. I know people said they would not have an effect, and I hope they did not have an effect, but right now I'm not sure. It feels shameful to think well they should have just chosen some random white guy. Given the climate, there's a good chance Trump would have beaten him too. Still, I am not sure this country is ever going a woman a chance.

I think that's why some are noticing the increased vote for Trump in the suburbs and rural areas. It's awful to say the country will only vote for a white man, especially since Obama won twice, but I don't think that country exists anymore. I hope they prove me wrong. They probably are, but Trump has always overperformed when on the ballot. He is just a ready-made candidate for a lot of people, horrifying as that is.

Half or more of the country worships Trump. They see him as what they need and want him to be. And those who don't still vote for him to go along to get along. Trump's campaign was heavily about immigration and the economy - many are suckered into supporting the GOP on those issues. Trans issues I don't believe are as popular with the public but even that might get fervent voters out. This country is broken, very possibly beyond repair. I hope Harris wins tonight - that's all that matters, much as I really was hoping for more in the House and holding on to the Senate - but even if she does (and at this point it's going to take a lot to certify even if she does win), I don't know if anything can fix what America is today...and some would say has been all along. And of course there are the people who want to vote but are stopped at every turn by the GOP. From North Carolina:

Thanks. I wasn't sure. I wonder who it is.

She is likely going to win New Mexico. If she was losing states like New Mexico, New Hampshire and Virginia this would already be over. The problem is what this weakness indicates for her overall performance.

Decision Desk called it. No one else has yet. The assumption is that it will - I think Lakshya Jain said 75-80% - people are just waiting.

NC has flipped to Trump. It's going to be very close as once again it seems many who were supposedly through with him are still hanging on. That this is hinging on PA - I wish we were not there.

What's more worrisome is she seems to be underrunning Biden in a number of areas in Virginia and New Hampshire - she will likely win those states but that doesn't bode well for swing states. I am hoping Sherrod Brown would hold on but that's not looking great right now either.

That's the very early vote - it's not going to stick. If she does somehow win I'll certainly be happy. CNN is also saying she's worried about NC (and GA). They seem to be counting on PA. Not great. I think CNN was saying she needs 700K or more out of Philly to win PA so that makes me nervous.

If she loses NH or VA, which doesn't seem likely, that would mean it's definitely over. The issues are NC and GA. I don't see her winning those.

That seat was going to flip no matter what - Manchin was the only one who held onto it and he likely wouldn't have this year, especially as the popular governor was running for the GOP. Based on the results so far tonight I am worried about how much else Democrats may lose. The best to hope for might be keeping the losses narrow.

Is this Lee Bryant? I am not sure.

Reading on Twitter, apparently a number of Georgia polling places in DeKalb and Fulton are staying open later because of bomb threats. Not sure how much that will affect the vote. Hoax bomb threats linked to Russia target polling places in battleground states, FBI says | Reuters

Ever since exit polls in 2004 led some to believe Kerry had won, I've always been wary of them. I feel like they are used to depress turnout. Between that and the Charlie Kirk set warning of their side needing more turnout, the head fakes are in full force today to try to get anyone voting for Harris or Democrats to not bother. Early results are much more likely to be Republican. Trump will use this to declare victory and a great deal of the media will back him up every step of the way. Another thing to remember is that the GOP have also claimed that Harris will end democracy, so a good portion of those 38% votes may be going their way.

That an oh-so-serious publication like Semafor actually has to point out to us in jeering terms how "questionably funny" Pitchbot is. Speaking of questionably funny, this is one of the better pieces from the leftist shell that is today's Onion.