December 8-12, 2008

[amazing7]

Not yet but the record lows are coming.

[Steven]

OLTL Need to go up this show is really good!!!

[rangethatrover]

I am so happy for Y&R's rise.

ABC's ratings are just awful. Awful. Awful. Awful.

Bad demos- Bad everything.

As much as I love OLTL, it is obvious that Nielsen homes do not feel the same way.

ABC cannot sustain any ratings increases longterm. They truly have some serious issues on their hands..

The tornado increase lasted a week for AMC. OLTL's high of 2.2 then maintained a 2.1 for 3 weeks which was a great sign.

We are now back at a 2.0 and the demos are sinking. And I predict both shows will be down to 1.8's by February.

I figure at this rate AMC and OLTL will be cancelled shortly after GL. I hate to see OLTL at the bottom of the ratings. I am sure alot of the Marty/Todd haters are thrilled. And perhaps it is a sign that the show needs to return to storytelling that doesn't offend its target audience. I wonder if alot of these blind items lately are about Carlivati---

Days has one of the most rebound abilities of any soaps! I have a hard time believing that it will truly be cancelled and not be picked up by another network....

[rangethatrover]

OLTL has been consistently compelling for the last 6 weeks. I have not seen it this good in a LONG time.

It is NOT a good sign of viewer happiness when AMC gains that amount of viewers and OLTL loses a significant amount.

I am such a doomsdayer but I say OLTL gets cancelled by 2010 and characters like Viki and Dorian move to Pine Valley. They will cancel OLTL before AMC no matter what the ratings are.

THOSE DEMOS ARE TERRIBLE. Its only a matter of time before certain shows are down to a .9 in the 18-49 demo!

[MarkH]

Okay, but truly, you can't blame ABC.

ABC is simply heading where it is headed, and it really doesn't matter what is on screen. The ratings are falling (at least for broadcast networks) in a linear or even accelerated way. This is true in all dayparts, and it is true of all networks.

I know this short snapshot suggests NBC and CBS are faring better...but that is only true for a week or two. All the shows are more or less on the same trajectory.

I say that basically to suggest "enjoy your show and don't stress about the ratings". They are on an unstoppable course that is mostly due to forces OUTSIDE of daytime or the creative state of shows.

The only way to save daytime, financially, is to start working aggressively in other platforms. Soapnet is a start, but ABC is slow in internet distribution. That is stopping a new base from growing.

Now, I'm not denying that creative fixes are also necessary....but history has shown that the creative state of a show and its ratings are not strongly correlated (see Days of our Lives for a current example).

If we JUST rely on broadcast ratings, the following two projections tell the whole story. The top graph puts daytime and primetime ratings on the same scale (called a "standardized" scale) and then shows their historical playout. They are on a joint death march, as you can see.

The bottom graph simply takes the ratings trajectories for all the shows, and statistically projects them forward. The story is clear enough.

[Antoyne]

So people are still watching Days?

[jinx_avery]

AMC can barely afford their own high priced vets, doubt they'd take on OL's. More likely that stand alone characters like Rex & Gigi could move over as Tad's new PI partner, rather than any of the too intertwined Lord/Cramer/Buchanan/Manning characters.

[rangethatrover]

Yes, Mark I know you are right~

I just think the demos are absolutely horrible for OLTL.

Just disappointed.

But when the time comes, OLTL will be the first ABC soap to go.

[tylerbo20]

omg i hope this doesnt mean they will hire more passions stars...maybe tabitha could come to town to visit her sister vivian lol

[MichaelGL]

The Nielson ratings only prove one thing.....stunts work. WTF stays around for what happens after the climax?

[RoseVioletDaisy]

I'm tempted to say that these ratings prove the opposite: stunts don't work, not in terms of long-term ratings viability. What GH-style ratings stunts have done is train soap-viewers into the habit of tuning in for the odd sweeps revelation or natural disaster because these seem to be the episodes that TPTB really care about and put any real effort or quality into anymore, so why should they bother sitting through four or five months worth of pointless filler that doesn't go anywhere? Some shows are far better at follow-through than others but none of them seem to tell a strong story, all the way through it's four to six month arc and hitting all the beats. AMC and OLTL are currently the best at it but neither have been doing it for longer than say eight months now so it'll take time for viewers to get used to the idea that things worth seeing are actually happening almost every day now again.

[MarkH]

You are absolutely right.

It is clear they use the stunts to short-term goose the ratings (e.g., during sweeps). People who use stunts -- BY DEFINITION -- do not care about the long-term viability of their shows. They are ONLY looking for quick fixes.

[rangethatrover]

Well my only point was as a fan- OLTL has been excellent since sweeps. That is just my opinion. It looked like the show was holding on to that extra 100,000 viewers that tuned in during that 3 week period of 2.2, 2.1, and 2.1.

I fully expect the show back down to 1.9 be February at the latest.

[TMOTVSoaps]

Soaps Ratings Analysis
December 8-12, 2008
Y&R over 5 million viewers, B&B gets 2.9s on 3 straight days, & DAYS at 1.5 making money

A very good week for CBS and NBC in mid-December gets ratings back on track after a horrible sweeps period. Y&R for the first averaged all five days over 5 million viewers for the first time since earlier in the year when the last time Y&R reached over 4.0 for a week. These are the best Y&R ratings since the stunt they pulled back in the summer. Y&R has become a more watchable show all the way through lately and the ratings are starting to reflect that every week very slowly. No doubt Hogan has gotten this show back on the right track writing wise.

The Y&R sister soap B&B had a much needed huge week to the the biggest international soap in the world. B&B killed Phoebe and we saw nothing but traditional characters and storylines come back as it was a great week to watch B&B. The stunt worked very successfully as B&B got close to 4 million viewers on all days and for the first time in a long time reached a 2.9 for three straight days including a 2.8 average for the week.

The two big CBS soaps are still down year to year, but they have shown that they still have some life when viewers watch them live.

DAYS is starting to prove why it was the right decision for NBC to re-sign them through September 2010. DAYS is the only soap to improve year to year on a consistent basis since the bump from the Olympics. DAYS has finally gotten out of that 1.7 or 1.8 hole that had deemed them since early 2007. DAYS had the hugest rise week we've seen in a long time for demos. The demos are where the soaps make their money at so they definitely cashed in with that huge 1.5 in the main demo. DAYS is starting to find its own identity too on who they want in the front as the soap has dramatically improved from that boring soap that its been most of the year.

ABC on the other hand the news was good and bad. The bad news was that their soaps struggled to gain any new viewers, but the good news is that they went back up from a bad week. AMC got back over the 2.0 mark as that show has dramatically improved big time under Pratt and has become more watchable. OLTL is so enjoyable right now, but it isn't showing in the ratings these past two weeks. OLTL still has been the most consistent ABC soap all year and is hands down the soap of the year. GH had a huge Monday and good job in the demos, but the rest of the week went flat back to its recent levels.

CBS' two Procter & Gamble soaps of ATWT and GL have gone up in the ratings after a horrible year for the two struggling soaps. ATWT seems to be getting back on track as of late by bringing diva Carly back into the main storyline. GL has been very watchable as of late, but we all know why its struggling still. I expect both soaps to re-signed through 2010.

All 8 soaps have been watchable since November started so I see 2009 as a positive year for the soaps to get back on track.

Without further or do let me analysis each soap during this important soap ratings week with the other one being next week.


All My Children
Pratt has no doubt about it turned this show around, but its no watchable magnet just yet for all of AMC's casual viewers and even some of its hardcore viewers. AMC still suffers from the annoying characters at the top not being used right like Greenlee, Kendall, Ryan, and Annie even Erica who needs to be back front and center. I feel like AMC will run on the right track with Pratt in 2009 as long as puts the show focus on Taylor & Jake, Angie & Jesse, and Reese & Bianca. These sets of characters and storylines within them are where AMC's true gold is at. Taylor and Jake could be one of the best acquisitions for a soap outside of Steffy & Marcus on B&B this year. Taylor and Jake is bringing that Emmy-Winning magic they had on GL over to Pine Valley. The show needs to move onto these characters front and center b/c that's all I'm hearing about on AMC boards that those characters are driving them back to watching the show. Tamara Braun's Reese character is a delight to watch as she does one hell of a job making her character, which is exactly what she did with Carly on GH. Braun could also be a valuable acquisition to the show as long as she stays for a longer period of time. Overall for AMC they got back on track with their ratings in a very watchable week for the show and I feel like if they keep it up they'll be hitting 2.1 or 2.2 in no time on average. This show needs to change its camera format and simply go to HD as the numbers have shown since August 2006 that format has dragged down their ratings.

As the World Turns
This show was boring for me lately, but the show has turned it around since late November and is absolutely starting to become more watchable again. ATWT just needs to find its identity back as it lost a very key actress this year in Martha Byrne. ATWT has been consistently getting 2.0 for its ratings and that's a positive b/c this was the one soap during sweeps that was consistently getting 1.9s. Now ATWT has had two days over 2.0 at 2.1 on Tuesday and 2.2 on Wednesday along with close to 3 million viewers for the those two days, which the show hasn't seen in months. ATWT needs to keep it up b/c one thing we've learned is that Y&R or B&B can no longer pull this show's ratings out of the toilet, it will have to be ATWT that gets its own ratings.

Bold and the Beautiful
What a week for this soap. I hadn't enjoyed watching B&B this much in a long time and B&B proves that its the one soap that can produce the best acting and writing when it wants too as they have the best traditional writer in the soap game today. Phoebe's death was a huge success although Mauzer just hasn't been used right from the get go and had so much potential. Anytime the main key characters like Queen Stephanie, Brooke, Taylor, and Ridge are in the spotlight you will see the viewers comeback and that's what happened last week with the ratings reaching 2.9 on three straight days and getting close to 4 million viewers. Ric and Steffy did a great job in supporting roles for that week as I feel these two characters along with Marcus will carry this show in the future. Taylor just brings that audience in and she is so key to the show's success just like Stephanie is. The question going forward to next week for B&B after the funeral will be can they sustain this audience or not?

Days of Our Lives
DOOL has been very watchable as of late and NBC made the right decision getting their confidence back in the soap to re-signing it. Ken Corday has not done a good job in the past few years keeping this soap together, but the new audience the show has found since the Olympics seems to be consistently watching it every week as its the one soap to improve year to year in the ratings. DOOL got very close to 3 million viewers and had the same kind of trends ATWT had. DOOL is starting to find their own identity and they have an A storyline in EJ/Sami/Nicole that can carry them through next year. The serial killer s/l will lift them also into next year as that's going to be a great stunt opportunity for them to hit a 2.4 at some point like the Salem Killer had done in the past. I think with DAYS finding its way back, NBC should think about adding another soap to their roster focusing on younger characters and maybe even spinning it off with Marlena. With Ben Silverman not going anywhere and Bruce Evans at the helm for Daytime on that network they could work something out easily for Fall 2010. DAYS has become the soap of the future and will definitely be a soap to watch out for.

General Hospital
For the most part GH has lost a huge amount of their audience, but they have the most casual viewers outside of Y&R and B&B to give them a 2.3 or 2.4 from time to time and that was proven again this week with their huge 2.4 on Monday. Viewership levels have been consistently high hanging around 3 million viewers. GH has lost alot of their fans confidence over the years, but they still have the biggest fan base out of all the soaps to carry them into future. GH is the one ABC soap hanging around that 2.2 mark on weekly basis. GH is definitely in better position money wise then they were at this time last year with the demos being really strong this week at 1.5, which was second behind Y&R and tied with DAYS. The demo has improved year to year so that's a positive for GH going forward financially as they have a huge decision coming up on one of their key characters since the 90s in Sonny.

Guiding Light
The show has become watchable again and its gotten out of that 1.3 and 1.4 hole that it was in. Anytime GL is able to get a 1.6 or 1.7 during the week that's a positive week for the show. If GL survives on CBS they're going to need to restructure its timeslot situation or simply going to a half-hour format to fit into the daytime schedule with the rest of the soaps and expanding B&B to an hour. GL has been good lately and the numbers are proving it here. This show needs to change its camera format and simply go to HD as the numbers have shown since February 2008 that format has dragged down their ratings.

One Life to Live
OLTL is the red-headed step-child for ABC Daytime, but its having a soap of the year type of year. Ron C. has done a great job turning around this soap into a watchable hour for viewers everyday. OLTL has been written so good all year long that its kept the show from getting 1.8s, which is where the show would be without Ron C. The demo this week has been solid at 1.3 and the household rating consistent, but the viewership levels are pretty low this week. This isn't a good week for OLTL to be honest with you and they should be doing better. I believe once they find the right kind of new audience they'll be averaging a 2.2 or 2.3 in 2009 sometime.

Young and the Restless
What a very watchable show Y&R has turned into with its schemes and dirty plots. Every storyline has become watchable and that's something that I couldn't say earlier this year from March-July then again from September-October. Since November the show has improved on a consistent basis dramatically and hasn't had to rely on stunts for ratings. Just good storytelling and tradition has helped. I remember when Y&R got that 3.2 back in October and I was very disappointed now I'm seeing over 3.5 for all its days and 3.8 on multiple days. The show's ratings have been a yo-yo going up one week and down the next, but its been healthy enough to be the soap that represents all soaps. As I've said before when Y&R goes down all soaps go down. Its been a while since I've seen Y&R get over 5 million viewers on all of its days so that's a positive sign for the soap to get back to the 5.5 million viewer range at some point in the future. Guess people liked seeing Gloria finally locked up. LOL!

Overall, the first two weeks in December have been positive for soaps as soaps have gone up year to year in ratings and quality. I feel very good about soaps heading into 2009 unlike last year when everything felt like things are going down. December is usually one of the trap months for soaps after a strong November sweeps period, but this year's December is alot more important b/c soaps need to be more consistent in their quality on a year-round basis with the shrinking audience. Next week will be another important week so I'll see you then.

[jfung79]

Reports of GL's demise have been greatly exaggerated ... Woo hoo, hope this keeps up!