The Politics Thread

[marceline]

Bernie's not going to be the nominee. Everything about Bernie's "revolution" is pure gaslighting. The numbers aren't there and the fact that he and his surrogates have been lashing out isn't the behavior of a campaign that feels poised for victory.

[DRW50]

 

Based on the polling of late I thought they had a good chance, but I do wonder if internal polling is telling another story, as they seem very desperate.

[JaneAusten]

I don't believe he'll win Iowa. We can debate on whether winning or losing Iowa is a big deal. I still think it has merit - maybe not like it did. I think it's going to be Buttigieg and Klobuchar, with so many local endorsements, is going to make a strong showing. 

 

I didn't really fully understand how a caucus worked until I was helping in Iowa and it was explained to me. The problem with Sanders candidacy in a Caucus setting is he has the lowest 2nd choice numbers, meaning if you're debating looking for a compromise candidate, Sanders would get close to zero support. Warrens numbers for example are as high as a second choice(compromise)  candidate as Biden's are or Harris's numbers were. I haven't seen Klobuchar's but hers would not shock me if they were decent.

[marceline]

 

The internal polls must be horrible. Just last week I got my first text from Bernie's campaign as did a number of my friends who are way less politically active and others who really don't like him. That tells me they are buying bigger and bigger lists of data with less vetting. 

[Khan]

 

I, too, find that hard to believe.  Bernie Sanders loves the spotlight too much just to acquiesce, especially when there will likely be an outcry from his followers NOT to.

 

It'll go down just as you have described, @Chris B.  Bernie will lose the nomination; he will drag his feet on bowing out/endorsing the actual nominee; he and his supporters will claim (again) the system was rigged; and by the time he (begrudgingly) endorses the nominee, the damage will have already been done.

 

As I see it, Trump will almost certainly be re-elected.  Not that anyone who doesn't support him should give up now -- because, hey, I'm no prophet, and there's always a chance the election could swing the other way -- but, at the very least, we should go into November knowing the odds are stacked against him being voted out.  And if/when Trump gets re-elected, I believe we will see several states seriously consider the possibility of seceding from the union, causing one nation to be split into two, or even three.

 

It's no secret the far left wants the republic as it stands to stand no more.  In their minds, America has to be destroyed and then remade rather than merely reformed.  IMO, however, it'd be the supreme irony to see Bernie Sanders and his ilk locked out completely as the new, reconfigured Americas work out a relationship where they can co-exist peacefully but independently.

 

 

Oh, the country's going down the toilet, regardless of whether Bernie ends up as the nominee.  As I've said, I believe Trump will be re-elected, and that there's no way the nation as it is will survive.  Just as the Founding Fathers eventually realized that remaining loyal to the British crown was no longer an option, and Abraham Lincoln realized the nation would never survive so long as slavery was allowed to continue in the southern states, I believe we're on the verge of a moment in our history when certain states will realize that the gap between right and left is too wide ever to be bridged, particularly when there's a (Republican) party in power that courts corruption, foreign meddling and a flagrant disrespect for the constitution that many have been sworn to uphold.

 

Through their actions -- or rather, their inactions -- the GOP has sown an irreversible distrust in our election process, the very bedrock of any democracy.  When that occurs, the republic is almost certain to collapse entirely.

Edited January 21, 2020 by Khan

[sivad40]

I doubt there will be a succession of states to split from the USA. All Fox News and the rest far right media with some help of the MSM like the NYT with paint those states and the Democrats as being sore losers and they will cave. Fox News  and conservative talk radio whether you like it or not control the narrative in this country. If they say 2+2=5, then 2+2=5, no matter what the facts are.

The GOP has successful created a reality in which they can do anything they want to do and they will always have 45%-55% of Americans there side no matter what. They control 75% of the branches of the government,  all of the government agencies, most of the media, and all of big business. 

 

I told a cousin of mine last night that Trump has no intention of ever leaving office if he's re-elected and there will be Trump dynasty. He will either run for re-election until he dies for  by repealing the amendment that abolished term limits (The GOP will probably have  control of 3/4 of the 50 states to do this).. If Trump can't change the term limits, he will just name one of his children as his successor (probably Ivanka) and they will be elected President. The Presidency will be passed down from Trump to Trump for at least the rest of the century. My cousin didn't believe this and he said there will come a time when enough is enough. I said it's been past way time for that because Trump keeps getting away with stuff just like  Bush did and for his misdeeds. 

 

 

[Juliajms]

So Hillary said she won't commit to backing Sanders.  He must have f*cked her over more than I realized. I knew there was bad blood but d*mn.

[ReddFoxx]

He did send out a tweet days before the election saying that not everyone thinking about voting for Trump was racist and that seemed like a signal to his supporters. He never said anything to dismiss the talk by his supporters about the primary being rigged and that spoke volumes.

[Chris B]

Her comments gave me life! I love this new Hillary that isn't running for office and can say whatever she wants. She's been very vocal about how Bernie hurt her campaign. 

[DRW50]

 

I don't think the main power brokers in the GOP, like McConnell, would want to give him or his children that level of power. He's mostly being used. 

[sivad40]

You could be right but they have already given him enough unchecked power as is. I just hope I'm still alive when he finally dies. Breaking news.

 

Now back to our regular schedule programming, the Bernie and NYT bashfest.

Edited January 22, 2020 by sivad40

[Khan]

 

I don't think the GOP will have much of a choice.  You see, that's the problem when you unleash the monster you create.  Eventually, the monster grows too powerful even for you to stop him.

 

Unless, of course, you kill him -- and don't think for one second that the GOP wouldn't at least consider the possibility (behind closed doors, of course) of orchestrating a hit on Trump should he ever turn his base against them.

 

 

Well, I'm disappointed.  I'm not surprised, but I'm disappointed.

 

America is so f**ked.

 

OMG, I really hope this does not come to pass -- because, even if they were to make the trade, I believe the GOP would renege; and all we'd get from this deal is bad testimony from Joe and/or Hunter Biden that would effectively knock Biden out of the election.  This is a trap, and the Democrats are prime to step right into it.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/senate-democrats-privately-mull-biden-for-bolton-trade-in-impeachment-trial/2020/01/21/e73b971a-3c71-11ea-baca-eb7ace0a3455_story.html

 

Oh, and the Senate has rejected issuing a subpoena to Mick Mulvaney.

 

I repeat: America is f**ked.

Edited January 22, 2020 by Khan

[DRW50]

 

That's true, but Trump is too stupid to be able to consolidate power. If he wasn't then he would have a 100% lock to reelection - the Democrats are just a disaster, and the economy hasn't crashed yet. 

 

The main problem is the puppetmasters (Putin, Saudi Arabia, etc.). Many on the left now openly lash out at the idea that Putin is to blame for everything, and I can see where it does become too much of an excuse, but there's a lot of truth to the fears. 

[Khan]

 

Frankly, I'm starting to think it never will.  Or, if it does, it'll be right as Trump finally heads for the exit door, after the 2024 election.  (Provided, of course, Trump isn't allowed to run for a third term).  Then, if a Democrat succeeds as president, he or she will be unfairly blamed for the economic collapse.

 

Just. Like. Obama.

[JaneAusten]

Nah it's going to happen just like it did for Bush ultimately.  If Trump gets re-elected give it 2 years. Student debt and the auto loans will be the catalyst. The auto load business, while a smaller % than the housing market, has been doing the same thing. Loaning people money for expensive vehicles they have no business loaning it to. And this time there will be nothing to do to stimulate the economy.