June 1-5, 2009

[LoyaltoAMC]

Y&R's been tanking creatively. There are just too many "shocking" high stakes storylines going on to find it enjoyable. There's no time to breathe. Plus, the stories are convoluted and as I've mentioned in the past, character motivations are really suspect. Anyone who still labors under the illusion that Y&R is character-based drama needs to expand their viewing horizons. LML did plot driven storylines and was seen as the devil incarnate; MAB does them and is praised to the hilt. At least LML's stuff was somewhat interesting, if uneven. Her stories, whether you liked them or not, seemed to have a clear focus. I don't get that with MAB at all. When it comes down to it, Y&R, storywise, is no different from any other soap out there, but its many flaws are masked by stellar production values and overall good acting. As for B&B, the way I see it, its fortunes don't depend on its storylines as much as on Y&R's fortunes. As Y&R goes, so goes B&B. Unless there's something climactic on B&B that might slightly spike the ratings for that week, it essentially keeps apace with Y&R. I'm not sure there are a lot of people who say "hey, it's 1:30, time to flick on the tube to watch B&B." Rather, it's more likely "Y&R is over and I don't feel like getting up to change the channel." They could show a test pattern following Y&R (which some could argue would be more lively and better acted), and it would still get the same ratings. These will definitely be the last two shows standing. I wonder how done a deal ATWT's 2010 cancellation really is. Would a show on the brink of cancellation be hiring big guns like Michael Woods or Lynn Herring? It seems that they're making a valiant effort, something I don't think they'd be doing if cancellation was a sure thing.

[CSF]

It wasn't about people saying B&B is next. It's more like B&B would be the next soap on CBS under scrutiny once ATWT ends, when CBS gives an official statement canceling ATWT. I know a lot of people say its going to end in September 2010, but CBS has not come forth and said so. It may very well be true, who know for certain. Also, a lot of people often insist that the Bell soaps (Y&R and B& would be the last 2 soaps airing. I don't believe that because I could see B&B ending it's run on CBS way before Y&R. They aren't a "package deal' like the PGP soaps. B&B is Bell Dramatic Serials and Y&R is majority Sony, then Bell then 1% Corday Holdings.

B&B is the second highest rated soap, but, it is not that far ahead of Days and the 3 ABC soaps. So really being 2nd place probably doesn't mean a thing in this climate. Especially if it's hitting new lows and the soaps right below it aren't hitting new lows, yet anyway. Being an international success doesn't matter either really because advertisers only care about how well it's preforming in the U.S. I personally wouldn't find it shocking to see B&B end (on CBS) let's say 2013. Nor would I find it shocking if Y&R, Days and the 3 ABC soaps were to be the last soaps on the air. I just have this feeling that ABC wants to have the final say in saying "We were the only network still airing soaps after NBC and CBS." I also find ABC being the network to replace their daytime with "Finding Erica, Southern Bells, Fashionestia Diaries, and Nightshift type programming.

[CSF]

I like how you brought up the test pattern idea. I think B&B airs t 12:30 CT when it's airing at 1:30 after Y&R on the east coast. Now one thing that I always do when I'm home in the daytime is watch Y&R at 12:30 and then when it's over, I don't change the channel and I certainly don't watch B&B, I just do other things. Then at 2pm, I may or may not watch ATWT or OLTL, and if I don't watch them, I'll turn the tv off. I'm sure others may do the same.

However, if CBS moved TPIR to 10am and Y&R at 11, I'm sure Y&R would still do fine. But, if they moved B&B to 12:30 after the local news, I would not be the least bit surprised if there was a significant decline in B&B's ratings. An important note would be it is followed by the often low rated local noon news casts on the CBS O&O stations and affiliates. B&B definitely benefits for the most part by airing after Y&R. Even if it aired at 12:30pm in every time zone, after a local news cast, a decline in it's ratings would be evident as opposed to Y&R airing at 11am in every time zone. CBS knew what they were doing by placing it differently after Y&R.

[mamasita]

i stopped watching ATWT, stopped "'cold turkey'' after being a loyal viewer of the show the day Martha left ATWT. Martha was ATWT. I am sure i am not the only one who refuses to watch ATWT without Martha.

[MarkH]

Unfortunately, the past year's data does not bear out your prediction. B&B had a decline slope MUCH STEEPER than Y&R's. Thus, it seems to have been separately undermining its future, apart from whatever coattails Y&R gave it.