The Politics Thread

[Vee]

 

[AdelaideCate007]

This is basically a miracle for the Dems, right? I haven't been following super closely but the past few days I saw people basically expected them to get slaughtered and have a red wave. Looks more like a red nothing lol.

Any real reason or ideas why this happened? I assume abortion is a big one.

[Vee]

It's very unusual for any incumbent party to do this well in a midterm election, where they usually take big hits. The answer is abortion and the Dobbs decision. Plus IMO the general public being far more tired of Trump and the MAGA GOP than either their party or most media were willing to admit. That and a lot of crooked GOP-funded polls flooding the news space that allowed eager, bored Beltway media to be led around by the nose excited by the idea of a red wave and big drama in Washington again.

I'm not completely surprised. I had a suspicion for awhile these would be our results or close to them, but I'll admit the overwhelming volume of said polls had me second-guessing myself a bit recently. But we're actually doing even better than I expected initially - esp with the House still somehow potentially in play.

Republicans finally were 'the dog that caught the car' with abortion. Now they're paying the price, despite several months of their people and a lot of journalists claiming it wouldn't matter.

Edited November 9, 2022 by Vee

[Vee]

 

 

[Wendy]

The only niggling concern I have is the claim that vote dumps are coming in for Blake Masters and Kari Lake in AZ. But since we overperformed, best to just appreciate that and what happens, happens.

[Vee]

 

We're still pretty ahead.

[Vee]

Cortez Masto is down a bit due to the late-coming rural vote in NV, as was expected. The question now is can mail ballots from Clark County, etc. make up the difference and regain her lead. I think it could go either way, we'll see.

Meanwhile:

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It's been a pretty good night, whatever the final result on a few races. We can recoup well from a midterm like this regardless. I'm taking a break.

[Vee]

 

More Republican regrets:

 

Edited November 9, 2022 by Vee

[DramatistDreamer]

Not only have I been ignoring the polls, I have been systematically overlooking and ignoring, skipping and posts touting polls. Yesterday, I just quietly showed up and voted. Hand-wringing is a waste of what little energy I have to spare these days.

[Vee]

 

Loath as I am to post Weigel:

 

[Vee]

They're all gonna try for this again and they're gonna find it's not gonna work, again. Trump won't let the party leave him and neither will their base. I've said for two years he'll tank everything before he lets DeSantis take the spotlight from him; that's already begun. He will promise to run, take money and endorsements, not really run at all and then shiv anyone who attempts to run in his place. They'll tear each other apart.

I believe it was Jane who said the polls were not reaching women on abortion and how big of an issue it really was, and I thought she was right about that. I felt pollsters were antiquated in who they were reaching and/or in other cases driven by bro vibes and data, and that turned out to be correct. The pre-election polling didn't get those people, but the exit polling definitely did. 35% or higher in some states.

 

Edited November 9, 2022 by Vee

[Vee]

 

[Toups]

Way to go, Pennsylvania!  Still a bit nervous about Nevada though.  And I’m glad to see so many election deniers lose. Hopefully we can add Kari Lake and Boebert to that list. 

[janea4old]

[dragonflies]

Sadly here in Ohio DeWine won re election and Trump backed JD Vance won

 

Ugh I hate this f*cking state