JaneAusten

Colorado is all mail in by the way. My nephew who lives there said he heard that the democratic candidate has gotten support to call all the mail in ballot voters with ballets that have been put aside due to signature mismatch kickouts. In Colorado you get notified if your ballot has a problem and you have up to 7 days to resolve it before it's set aside permanently.(you can goto a local office and resolve it)

As I mentioned before, I spent weeks off and on doing deep canvassing over the phone. The local NARAL group I was working with were targeting independents and GOP suburban women. The calls focused on abortion rights. This is why I was skeptical of the polls. Close to 80% of those women supported abortion rights. I know it's hard to believe that women especially those groups would vote based on that, but most of the women said it was number one on their list as an issue. It doesn't mean other things don't matter. We have to stop listening to a media and press that pushes narratives that treat people as stupid and everyone as only caring about 1 issue. When I type that point out it sounds even more ridiculous. And the media and press will always find people to confirm their own biased narratives.

This person is not official of course but I looked up the stats he is referring to and he's right. If this continues. looks like Warnock wins. Abrams may not win tonight, but it will be her and her organization that helped propel him to victory. By the way WTF Uvalde. The idea dems had a lock on latinos? I think this might be the fact that right wing billionaires have been buying up Spanish talk radio for the last few years. Thank goodness we have at least the latina coalition doing the same on the liberal side. Now if only male liberals could do this.

Thanks Vee. I know people doubted what I was saying and I don't blame folks. Sometimes you don't know when you're on the phone if you are being BS'd. But this was my experience in talking to independent and GOP suburban white women,

People have already written it off. Same thing happened in 2020 with the Red Mirage. And if the GOP was so confident we would not have lawsuits already filed in 3 states. Same targets young people and PoC. There was a report on BBC about exit polls. Not who people voted for but the top 2 issues Top 2 issues tied Inflation and Abortion.

Well I hope everyone has done what they can do. I am a half glass full kind of person and I don't really expect the dems to keep the house, but for goodness sakes if people were to look at this like a traditional mid term the polling is positive. Even with the rigged polls included. And not nearly as bad as 2010 where the GOP had a 9 point lead on the generic ballot. But frankly I don't get it. The democrats had a 7 point lead on the generic ballot in 2018 and people were still doubting they would take the house. And with all the barriers the democrats still have against. them mainly the media and press landscape and not having an infrastructure like the Koch network of organizations which is bigger than the RNC and does more pre-election organizing than the RNC does, they are stil competitive. No one wants to lose and god knows what these people will do in the next 2 years, but we can't just throw our hands up.

Yes. There is a 60 day notice provision in California based on how high the percentage is of layoffs. Mass layoffs as we know can impact the local economy. I'd say a 50% layoff more than easily will meet whatever threshold there is. I guess people who were laid off are saying they got 8 weeks severance or are on the payroll for 8 more weeks. Not sure. Either way it's not 60 days notice.

I don't know how Tesla manages, but not a smart thing to do in the tech world trust me as someone who worked in the industry. And Elon Musk is the dumbest billionaire around and that's saying something. So basically a blue check on twitter will end up meaning - NOTHING except I paid for it.

At least the Latino contingent by the way is on the media train. Eva Longoria along with a number of other prominent latinos are investing in Spanish radio stations with the intention of growing a progressive spanish speeking latino network. I wish we'd see others. Of course it's minority women doing this. Where are all the white progressive men? MIA as usual. Female-Led Latino Media Network Launches With $60 Million Acquisition Of TelevisaUnivision Radio Stations (forbes.com)

538 is contaminated. Read Rosenbergs thread. The GOP has flooded polls - over half in the last month into 538 also. And look at the states targeted. ALL THE STATES BEING DISCUSSED. I agree with Rosenberg. Follow the voting numbers. In Kansas there was a huge turnout and the narrative was it was going to be a narrow win for illegalizing abortion and it went massively the other way. I am not suggesting it's not going to be close, but keep looking at the early voting numbers. There are some concerns in Nevada but Mastro has a huge lead with latinos but guess what you'd never know that by looking at 538 because of all those Laxalt favoring polls. Know the 2 most reliable polling of latinos had Mastro up by 30 points. Both of them.

Also you should follow Rosenberg. This is a good thread. And Jon Ralston in Nevada. I trust him. I think one question we should ask is will GOPers come out without Trump on the ballot. Not the mouth breathers . They will. Time will tell. You were talking about early voting @drw50, but as I said there is a different between early voting and mail in (that includes dropboxes). In 2020 republicans had the early vote by a large margin. Now more dems did mail in in 2020 and maybe more dems are electing to early vote versus risking their mail in ballot being rejected. But as Rosenberg says "By voting early you allow campaigns to target lower propensity voters now, increasing turnout. " And how many disaffected GOPers are there. I also don't really know about independents. I talk to a lot of women and a some of the independent women were not planning on voting where in talking to suburban GOP women, almost all I spoke to are voting this election.

Nick Riccardi is a hack. I know I use that word a lot but he was all over the crime stuff and completely ignored Denver crime which has skyrocketed in the past couple of years . It's because it doesn't fit the narrative. It's high time the democrats invest in their own media. I am not a fan of having a huge ecosystem, but I have no idea what else. And it's time the democrats get nasty. Lord our democratic party in Illinois is cuthroat. The National dems can learn from these people here. And yeah there are a lot of things I don't like that they do but even with that, I will never vote for a republican in this state.

The polls are skewed. Even NBC had to admit it because of the flood of GOP polls being fed to the averages. Unfortunately the networks wanted a horseface so if the dems keep the house and win the senate, the media has helped craft another election stolen narrative, with the New York Times as the leader.

I registered on Counter Social. Very twitter like yep. I am just checking to see if any of the accounts I follow have also moved over. You can register if you want to to be part of the Bluesky test group. It's not close to being ready for prime time

I think early voting is a different animal. Now mail in voting which used to be a GOP mainstay especially in places like Arizona and Florida is no longer GOP heavy. I am cautiously optimistic because I've actually been doing deep canvassing by phone to mainly independent and GOP suburban women. Abortion in the either first or second most important issue despite the media narrative. The "Abortion is no longer an important issue" is a GOP invented narrative sold to the media.

Probably one of the best articles I have read about Twitter and Musk's acquisition. I see nothing fradulant here. Elon Musk bought Twitter. Then the hangover set in. | Mashable And I hate to agree with Nate Silver because he can be a giant troll himself, but he's right.

Sorry moved to media thread. More on Musk with a comment from Nate Silver(I know)

I wish that would change. Needless to say we know the answer.

I question all the polls now especially with that Simon Rosenburg thread where he talked about the GOP flooding the system with right leaning polls changing the averages. Especially Nevada where apparently legit polls have Maestro leading in the Latino vote.

This is an interesting article on how the Biden administration has been working behind the scenes to ensure that Bolsonaro accepted the results. It's interesting that Austin our defense secretary met with the military leadership in Brazil for much of the same indirectly telling them they would have NO US military support for a coup and apparently their military realized they could not help one without US support. This time US interference worked for the benefit. Brazil Elections: How Team Biden Pressured Bolsonaro to Accept Election Results (foreignpolicy.com)

I have said this all along but I get skepticism in my circle of friends. not that anyone likes him. I think some are finally catching on. He's a stupid douchebag. I don't think he has any master plan. He's in way over his head. Jack Dorsey is probably salivating at this point.

Musk never had any intention of buying it. And frankly I have no idea what people see in him. He's an insecure blowhard and attention whore. None of those cultists who follow him on twitter and may feed his ego can afford anything he makes. When I hear people calling him a visionary and such I scratch my head. Why he's considered a leader I have no clue. You can criticize the tech "geniuses" of the past, and Steve Jobs for example was also a *hitty human being in many ways, but he did know when to keep his mouth shut. Bill Gates who I have heard people compare Musk to(don't make me laugh) was not the technical visionary Jobs was but he was a marketing genius and knew how to make his products marketable and sell. Yeah he stole components from IBM OS/2 and the Mac graphical interface to develop DOS and WIndows, but he also understood how to make his product a household name and put it in every household and business. Musk has none of the positive qualities that made Jobs such a genius and visionary and businessman and Gates what he became. If all of us are lucky, Twitter will be Musk's ultimate downfall. He can't keep his big fat mouth shut and craves attention so much, I can easily see it happening. I;ll be interested if his so called "free speech" platform includes China where twitter is censored. My guess is NO since he is relying on them for investment. So much for Mr. Free Speech. I only follow a couple of accounts on twitter nothing more at this point. It's become a garbage heap and Musk will make it worse.

Pretty much but in all fairness, at least Dorsey(who was not the owner of course) stayed off twitter for the most part. Musk can be accused of a lot when it comes to twitter, giving his companies free advertising for example, but lets not fool ourselves into believing he had good intentions here and knows what he just bought. I don't think he has a clue. Narratives are already driven by the extremes but it's funny I didn't see any response to the question from LeBron James on why the N word was flowing so haphazardly the last couple of days. I think we know why. Advertisers definitely are not going to want to be associated with that and if it becomes a right wing tool anyway it will go the way of Trumps idiotic media site and the others out there that are dying. Fact is these people only want to be on sites where they can anonymously harass and taunt people. The only thing I might agree with that Musk said is that anyone who uses it should be able to post their own name and be verified. No troll accounts. But that's not going to happen either.