JaneAusten

Recent polling has Harris 86-8 with black voters. Those are Biden numbers so her numbers have gone up. I hear what you're saying, but I still don't buy "the inroads". Of course you know better than me, but it's not you I distrust it's the media and the broken polling industry. As for the media, all the networks always focus on Dems in Trouble and Dems in Disarray including MSNBC. It's their way of keeping their viewers anxious and tuning back in.

Lot of projection going on here. He and his brother have always been trash. Both sexual harassing creeps. He's likely figured out the grift is more lucrative on the right. Those people are conned more easily.

I really don't understand why people believe any of this especially since every election since I can recall, the GOP are always projected to be picking up black votes and it never happens.

He had an entire thread today where he was talking about why Arizona makes more sense to him than Nevada. He also said today that the NPA vote is Nevada is a mistake to disregard because a good amount of it are automatic registration voters who get registered with no party affiliation and the majority of those voters vote democratic. That map above he did 3 weeks ago.

I don't think Adam Carlson said this. He was making a case as to why Arizona makes more sense for Harris to win over Nevada.

Thanks @Vee I was going to post this info, but glad you picked it up. I want to remind people that Clark County also was delayed in mailing out Mail In voting ballots by other counties in Nevada by about 10 days. Whether this is a factor or not who knows. I have a friend who lives in Vegas with her husband and 2 kids. Her older son wanted to see Obama over the weekend, so they went. On the way they dropped off their mail in ballots, which she indicated arrived just 3 days before, which is unusual. Every voter in Nevada gets a mail in ballot. I do wonder if the Reid Machine is still in tact , as it was in Nevada, and whether those idiot DSA members who took over the democratic party and were booted out a couple of years later, are having any lasting impact?

This is an ad. A very effective one. And it doesn't change a thing Mark Kelly said. I have an account on Tik Toc and have seen him in other videos.

So here we go again, suddenly Trump is getting less white working class voters in 2024 than he did in 2016 and 2020(if you believe the polls). Let me guess he's going to make up that difference with black voters. Don't make me laugh.

As predicted, no matter how much men tell us this just isn't a top issue. Abortion Overtakes Immigration in Voters' Minds - Newsweek Polling rigging again with the medias help who are doing what they did in 2022. Red Waving polls. And here is Adam Carlson confirming the steady polling yet again. Just note, I have zero faith in the polls just as I could care less about what right wing social media(which is most of social media now) broadcasts versus what matches the reality of our country. Noisy, dangerous nepo apartheid babies like Musk or David Sacks don't represent Americans, especially women.

99.9 % of the voters have no idea who Al Smith was or give a darn about the Al Smith dinner. Other things the media peddles that are likely untrue. 1. Black male voters moving to Trump - How many elections do we need to keep hearing this and it being proven false? I just can't with this. 2. Latino voters - This is a varied base of voters, In Florida, the latinos there are completely diff than those in Arizona or Texas or California or Nevada or name your place. The media wants to pretend they are a monolith 3. All young men are moving to Trump - Based on what podcasts? If I believe polls(and I don't much anymore) I see that Harris leads women by 15 points and Trump leads men by 9%. Just based on that metric because more women vote and we are 54% of the voting base. If people are obsessing over polls(we see this all over social media) and not volunteering to help, well they can look at their own reflection in the mirror after election day. It already is. Now Trump was wandering on stage for 20 minutes at a rally last night because "his mic went out". Forget that they always have multiple mics available. Something much more drastic is going to happen to him before election day. And back to Al Smith, I was raised Catholic - I don't consider myself one anymore and have not for a long time. I guarantee that 21% of the population that are allegedly catholic - most of them haven't stepped foot in a church in years. My parents never gave a dime to Catholic Charities. My mom was very careful in terms of who they donated to and when it came to charities, she always researched to see how much overhead they have. Catholic Charities is one that has a lot. Doesn't mean they might not do good work, but look into the Salvation Army whose overhead is minimal in comparison. This is excellent and one of my close friends has been saying this for ages. He also had a very similar experience at his employer as what the Pitchbot is mentioning related to his. This goes on at a ton of places as we all know. The Times is not immune. Sadly it's ruined their brand to an extent. Couple that with the dying out of newspapers and you get this. I do think that many of these "reputable" news sources have incorrectly made the assumption clickbait is it. It's not.

Just live the "Red Wave" polls being fed into polling averages, now the rigging of Polymarket exposed.

He's not an Obama person. I want to make that clear. I am not going to debate anything else you posted but Daley nor his brother are or ever have been Obama people.

Seriously we're listening to Bill Daley for advice. A guy who ran for how many offices and did not win one. He ran for mayor of Chicago basically as a republican, cozied up to the police union, and couldn't even make it to the runoff election, which was one black woman against another black woman. Daley is in fact a republican now and the Daleys have not been relevant for years. Just because he was chief of staff for exactly one year(there because of Rahm Emmanual). And while Obama gave Emmanuel his endorsement for mayor when he ran the first time, no where did he endorse Daley.

I guess success and decency is relative and if you're a white woman and blond you get the benefit of what? Being good because I guarantee you the men(and it's mostly men) defending her don't care a bit about her alleged talent. Next you'll tell me the women are more critical because she's prettier and more successful than we are. Nope. We women know how hard it is to get ahead and our behavior has to be way above males to be treated equally, and even when that happens, we still aren't treated the same. Are you suggesting that the presidential race this year is super close and in 2016 was lost because the male candidate was far more qualified? GMAB. I don't think she's that talented as a journalist. Exactly what stories has she broken. And cozying up to people like Steve Bannon and Milo Yiannopoulos and Right Wing Nationalists. She's basically a gossip columnist for White Supremacy. I'd equate her with Eva Braun not Nelly Bly. But I guess we all have our own opinions. Plus, a real journalist would not have gotten involved or if so, would have distanced herself from her subject. And we are decades past this fascination with the Kennedy men. These people were raised in the midst of privilege and misogyny. Especially a man who is 70 years old. The man drove his late wife to suicide, and when her family wanted her body moved to their plot, he did what? He moved her body half way across the cemetary ALONE because "The Kennedy Plot was getting too full". Is that a man to be drawn to?

Info on recent polling numbers For those interested such as @drw50, @Votehub has voting numbers in swing states only. You can review their account on twitter/X for info on several of them.

I think this is right. And the dems are doing everything right. I have to question the articles about dems being anxious. Is this true? Or is this a democratic strategy so people don't get over confident like we did with Hillary? So much is different but Marceline is right about the PTSD. I chuckle at Trumps idiotic comments about Detroit. Well apparently per Tom Bonier the early voting numbers in Michigan specifically in the Detroit area is off the charts, so to speak, So is that why the tirade? I don't know anyone who is from there, as someone in this thread indicated, is going to dampen enthusiasm and will likely have the opposite impact. I know from phonebanking, that the conversations are very much the same as 2022 if not moreso. Volunteering for the same group and calling Independent women and Suburban GOP women in swing states. 70% of those I talk to are voting - that's up from 54% in 2022, and most I speak to who are undecided are learning to Harris. And those I speak to who don't know much about the issue(hard to imagine) are surprised it's so dire at this point. If anyone out there is anxious, volunteer. Phone banking is relatively easy. The technology is such you don't need a phone to do this just a computer with a mic and speaker included. If you have never done it, be prepared with long waits because the direct dialing does bypass connecting you to calls if no one answers which is 90% of the calls made. You only get connected if there is an answer.

I agree with most of this but I am not sure he hasn't grown his support in some areas. No I don't believe the black numbers mostly because we hear this every election cycle for every republican who runs long before Trump. The only area I have heard potential inroads is with young men. And that might be possible. Some of them might buy into the so called "machismo" of Trump.(I know don't make me laugh). I know many folks (not me) have poked fun at Harris for the fact she spent time on the Call Her Daddy podcast, but from what I have read, Trump has spent time on podcasts younger men listen to. Well not Rogan of course but others like Lex Fridman, although I admit I don't know the traffic on his podcast. I tend to think the Call Her Daddy appearance reached a lot of people Harris normally would not reach, but then I am also biased towards the idea that abortion rights will still play the dominate issue in this election also. People tend to forget that abortion is not only a freedom issue, but an economic issue. The largest demographic getting abortions today are married women with children. And this feels very little like 2016 to me other than the media's behavior. Attacking the democrat and downplaying Trump's actions. The most idiotic is the fact Harris is dodging interviews, then not doing the right ones, then not taking tough questions, etc. But we have to remember the media landscape is also much different than 2016. I still believe people consume and trust more local press and media, sure that's deteriorated, but those venues have less of the "fake news" response from locals IMO. The national media really has so much less relevance and I really believe people are onto polling. Polling has never been super accurate. Can it capture a moment in time, perhaps, but you can look over the decades and see the misses. And it's always the same trend. Some big name will get a poll right and they become the new polling god(Nate Silver in 2012 anyone) and then they falter but still hold a level of validity with some. Ultimately they fade away like Silver continues to do. That's our national media. I won't even get into their abhorrent coverage of our involvement in overseas endeavors (trade, wars, insurgencies). It's so loaded and biased, they barely even try to be honest. I'm no advocate for China, but a lot of their analysis is so bad when it comes to China and it's economics, it's either people are blind, are stupid, or are deliberately misleading people here. It pays to follow some non US media.

The landscape is changing. The interviews don't matter as much anymore. Younger people and even older people have changed how they consume information. Stern was at the forefront of changing his own delivery channel that has seen so many popular programs on places like Spotify or SiriusXM now. And Sterns audience certainly is not the younger audience some of these other programs draw in so again, it's not just younger people. There is still a place for 60 minutes but soon that won't be. Part of its progress but part of it is also they themselves pushing themselves into irrelevance. The fact is they have escalated their own irrelevance by their behavior. I do think there is still a place for local news. I still know lots of people who watch the local news but the national news, newspapers, that's old hat. I do worry about viable news sources - I think there is still some level of universal trust in local media - and maybe boosting those channels of news becomes more important. The national news media is lousy. I have such a nostalgic fondness for 60 minutes. They have done so much great reporting over the years, but it hasn't been the same for years. They have fallen victim to much of the same. I don't think changing personalities and adding people like Anderson Cooper has helped one bit. In fact I think it's hurt their brand and accelerated their decline. If you haven't seen the movie The Insider which was about the Tobacco investigation and how 60 Minutes initially backed off of it to an extent, came to fruition. Christopher Plummer may not have looked like Mike Wallace but he certainly played him to a tee, arrogant SOB he was. A gem of a performance and Russell Crowe was exceptional. But it was the story that was riveting much like All the Presidents Men was and IMO still is. And if you have seen Network, it feels like we've been living through our own reality version of the movie the past 20 years. Paddy Chayefsky was clairvoyant.

I don't understand how the Teamsters support - the head of the union - matters. They made the decision not to endorse anyone but ALL of the regional orgs have endorsed Harris/Walz. That says more to me than anything. But the membership has been conservative for a long time. Biden is probably regretting bailing them out at this point, and frankly maybe some of these idiots should lose it all so they can see what their decision cost their membership. It may not matter. The good news is the Black Teamsters endorsed Harris from the beginning.

I think we need to be wary. Much of the polling released this week barring a few have been GOP state polls. This is the same *hit they did in 2022 that got the fake red wave narrative moving. Simon Rosenberg has already posted the polls this week that are GOP led polls. And Tom Bonier has carefully gone over the early voting stats. I'm not taking anything for granted but I think we all need to be skeptical of anything the media is trying to spoon feed us to keep them viable. I also think Vance knows Trump is going to lose and I believe everything is about positioning himself as the next savior. Vance is very dangerous. He's a zealot and true believer and owned by the worst of the worst people on this planet.

I think people first of all are overestimating this debate. Some of you sit here are claim Vance was civil. How many of you are women? What was evident to me was his overtalking 2 female moderators and trying to do the mansplaining. Now let me backup. Is he a skilled debater yes. Hell he was a debater at Yale. But any women watching this knew what we saw. People have forgotten how often GWB was beaten in debates. Didn't the pundit class declare it so. It's why people have come to despise these people. I can't tell you especially as a woman how much I have come to despise these people. Because many of them in fact including many women are so condescending to other women it makes me scream. But getting back to GWB, he underperformed. But people thought he came across as authentic and real. As the debate progressed Walz got better. He came across as authentic but he was too prepped with facts. No damage was done and the end is the debate was a draw. Vance IMO did not improve himself at all. He came across as a slick used car salesman.

This has all the regional Teamsters endorsements: A series of local “joint councils” representing hundreds of thousands of Teamsters workers in key swing states endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris after the International Brotherhood of Teamsters’ executive board declined to endorse either her or Trump Harris campaign spokesperson Ian Sams said on social media that Harris had earned the endorsement of Teamsters Joint Council 43 in Michigan, Teamsters Joint Council 39 in Wisconsin, and Teamsters Joint Council 7 and Joint Council 42, which represent 300,000 members across California, Hawaii, Guam and battleground Nevada Teamsters Joint Councils and locals in Washington state, Idaho and Alaska, Philadelphia, Miami, western Pennsylvania, and elsewhere had already offered their endorsement of Harris prior to Wednesday In August, the Teamsters’ National Black Caucus endorsed Harris after its chairman condemned Teamsters General President Sean O’Brien for making overtures to Trump and speaking at the Republican National Convention Harris racks up regional endorsements from Teamsters locals (ny1.com)

This confirms what that Teamster who called into Michael Signorelli's show said, both from the meeting with Harris and that individual councils would be endorsing.

Yeah and I remember reading that the Black Teamsters Union/Caucus endorsed Harris after all the conflict was exposed some weeks back. I also heard a Teamster call in to one of the Sirius XM Progress shows who said that he expects a lot of the local chapters to post endorsements for Harris. Biden pretty much had pretty solid support, which I was shocked about, but I can see the numbers above reflect that.

Why has all the polling been wrong since Dobbs? Not in favor of democrats by the way yet dems have way outperformed. Are we suggesting that the polling industry is still that broken that none of these polling organizations have fixed their polling to reflect "enthusiasm" or whatever you want to call it to account for the errors in 2016 and 2020? We all believe the polling was correct when Biden was in the race and it was tight with a slight advantage for Trump but it's impossible for the current numbers to be accurate when a democrat is ahead. I don't believe any of it for one reason DOBBS. By the way I am not suggesting ignoring the polls and to not be skeptical. I am probably the biggest skeptic. I am not paying attention to any of them. But I am looking at what Tom Bonier's stats show and whatever model Chris Bouzy has been using(he won't disclose all of his measurements) who has been saying for months Florida is in play and IOWA of all places will be in play. He's been saying this for months not just now and boom. I'm a skeptic but might turn into a true believer if his projections are correct. The answer is work. Ignore the polls and everyone do what they can. I'm still recovering from some health issues but I intend to goto Iowa to help do canvassing and do phone banking for swing states for NARAL again. Postcards are easy to do. And anyone here who wants information on how to help, is welcome to message me, but there is a load of information available on ways to help online.