JaneAusten

This is fricking amazing. It makes me think Christopher Bouzy is onto something. He talked about Florida but he also mentioned Iowa as a sleeper to keep an eye on and this was WEEKS ago.

These people are attention whores period. With her, look at the amount of the settlement she got from her failed show at NBC and ask yourself why with that much money she still throws herself into more. It's not money that's for sure.

Thank you for sharing this. It says so much about the trauma many who lived through this are still experiencing. My niece lives and works in NYC for the Health Department. She's lived there for 16 years - loves it. When the Peace Tower was completed, there were problems getting tenants. You likely know this already. There was talk that part of the health department would move there. She knew so many native New Yorkers who worked there who said they would not go there and would quit if their department(s) moved there. And as you said, the trauma is still there. Also, there are many New Yorkers who still have not been to the Museum on the site nor at the site itself, it's that haunting. Now in the times we are in, it's especially touching that you are slowly getting beyond the trauma of those days. In some ways the vile and hate we are experiencing in pockets of this country today are a reminder to some of the bile spewed towards many of our fellow residents from that day who were equally if not more traumatized. Take care of yourself and I pray that we can come to a time where all of us can move forward together with respect, hope, and peace.

Trump has not been on Rogan and Rogan won't have him on. Nate Silver has not gotten anything right in years. He also is bankrolled by Peter Thiel, the billionaire who bankrolled Vance's professional and now political career. Sorry I don't trust him never will.

Nate Silver was: 1. Fired by ABC 2. Fired by 538(yes he was pushed out) 3. Now works for Peter Thiel Do we really believe he's an honest pollster? He got one election right. He's a twitter troll who since he has weighed in on COVID, is no longer serious(if he ever was). It frankly was an embarrassment of epic proportions for someone who claims to be a serious pollster and only demonstrated he is unserious to put it mildly.

Oh my please don't even put Walz in the same category as Vance, who seems to be universally hated. I can't imagine Walz wearing eyeliner either or admiring a cretin like Peter Thiel also. Vance the VP candidate was created in a lab run by billionaires which is the main reason he is such an awful human being. Everything rotten in the billionaire class is exhibited by Vance on a daily basis.

I tend to agree, although Bouzy is from Florida and his model is different. It's not based on polling. I watched a clip of Nikki Fried, who is now head of the democratic party in Florida, and the haplessness of the party in recent years is gone. The wins by democrats in many places across the state has gone underreported of course. The registration numbers for the GOP being 1 million over democrats is a statistical falsehood. There are roughly over 1 million democratic voters that are inactive, a new law passed by the GOP legislature in Florida in 2022 that went into effect in 2023. It basically means people who did not vote in 2022, do not get counted and become inactive. Now that does not mean their registration is invalid or anything needs to be done other than to vote to be active again. It's a way of pumping up GOP numbers in the media to make people believe the state is overrun by the GOP. Remember 2022 was a disaster in Florida for democrats because the party down there was and has been a mess for several years. It's not that there are no democrats down there but over 1 million less voted in 2022. Fried has gotten things back on track. But I do agree it's a big hurdle and the Harris campaign needs to spend money there. Will they? Who knows. But Carville(who I find annoying and preachy) has also changed it to winnable and the latest map from NPR based on polling now has Florida as Lean R versus likely R. So we'll see. Florida does have referendums on Abortion and Marijuana on the ballot in November.

The clip in Chris Bouzy's tweet is worth watching. Tom Bonier from TargetSmart and voter registration data. just note that Bonier, Bouzy, and Simon Rosenberg were the only 3 correct about 2022.

I feel so many are underestimating Tim Walz. As a midwesterner, I can tell you that the Democratic Governors in particular are all solid including Walz and Tony Evers, both former educators by the way, who are older looking white men who don't get the glitzy attention the Beltway gives to Whitmer, Shapiro, and to a lesser degree, Beshear. I love all of them by the way. Prtizker our Gov here in Illinois, is solid, but we are also a solidly blue state. I'm not really sure why JB was ever really in the conversation. Walz is authentic as I said before and comes across folksy. He's not a radical or gung ho progressive or ultra liberal. He's actually got a bit of a libertarian streak. He will be great. I think Shapiro is a star. I am fully convinced he'll be president one day. But my only concern is that he's only been Governor for a little over 2 years. Yes he has a strong record over the years as a state legislator and then AG, but a few more years as Governor would do him well for his own future. I actually preferred Beshear but it wasn't in the cards. I hope to see Whitmer, Beshear, and Shapiro in a presidential primary one day, along with Wes Moore and Walz. Time will tell. Off topic, I admire Kelly, but you can't pick someone based on who is safe. That's the way I saw Kelly and I am remembering Tim Kaine.

I see Walz is an effective attack dog. But what he has is authenticity. Something not easy to come by in a politician. He's 60 years old by the way. I understand the optics point, but he's also a veteran. The only other one in the VP stakes is Kelly. Buttigieg is but I don't believe he's really a legit VP candidate sadly enough. I love the guy but this isn't his time. Thanks for posting the clip of Whitmer. I hope Lemire felt like an idiot. This is the third time she has publicly stated she's not in the VP race. And maybe she knows a 2 woman ticket is not happening, maybe she's sincere, or maybe both.

I don't think it's that black and white. First, there have been protests again in Israel by citizens against Netanyahu. They want him gone. They see how little if anything he did to get hostages released. There were reports not that long ago in Israeli papers how Netanyahu actually yelled at some of the families of the hostages, basically telling them to get over it. Not exactly that but that was the intent. Second, people keep thinking Hamas is a group of people. That is the same mistake the US made about Al Qaeda. It's not. You can't destroy an ideology. Biden early on tried to warn the Israeli Gvmt based on our own experiences after 9/11. They didn't listen and I believe Netanyahu in particular, had no intention of listening. I found his address to congress today nauseating. All he's done is prolong things to save his own skin. And this may be unpopular to say, but I think he intentionally allowed the attack which he was warned was in the works for over a year. Heck for as much as he claims Hamas is a terrorist group, of course they are, what did he do to stop them. Nothing. It's like he wanted it to happen. He authorized the release of money to Hamas 3 weeks before the attack and nothing has happened to the Hamas leadership in Qatar. Now they have killed how many thousands of innocent children trying to destroy an ideology. Again, how did that work out for the US. Al Qaeda still exists and our involvement in Iraq helped to create ISIS. And I have ZERO desire for the US to be pulled into a war with Iran that Bibi is itching for. This is not Iraq. Iran actually has serious military capabilities.

I have donated to Biden both the last and this election cycle and I just sent my first donation to Harris. I am saddened for Biden so much and how it went down. But I admire him for his leadership, his hard work, and most of all, his own sacrifice. History is going to judge him kindly - I do believe this. Despite the donors wanting someone else, Biden endorsed Harris as did IMO her 2 strongest potential opponents(in the eyes of the donors), Gretchen Whitmar and Josh Sharpiro. Now lets all do this with Madame Vice President and make her our first female President.

I haven't said much on this - I have tried to tune out, but it's obvious to most I think out there - VOTERS - this is about Kamala. I have no doubt about it. On the flip side we have to all acknowledge Joe is old. He himself said it. With that, come limitations. I do wonder if any of these calls would have happened had lets see, Josh Shapiro, Gavin Newsome, or even Gretchen Whitmar were his VP. My guess is NONE. If anything, for the first time in years, the democratic candidate has the senior vote overwhelmingly. My only caveat is I don't think Pelosi is a reactionary nor is Schumer. Is Obama involved. I can't see him being reactionary. BUT, if Biden decides to step aside, they better damn well support Kamala wholeheartedly. PERIOD.

Who set a trap his campaign? I don't think the campaign would have done it if they had thought Biden would not come out ahead. But the fact is debates rarely matter. Look at Hillary who won all 3. The fact that the story has gone on for weeks now is due to the democrats and the Biden campaign. The dems because most are too cowardly to go on record if they are opposed. The campaign because they have been unable to ease those fears. Frankly those on the campaign who are leaking should be axed. And no comment on the few primarily white male "unnamed sources" in congress who have called for Biden to step down publicly . I don't have to know them by name since I have seen who has publicly come out in support of him.

It's funny when Trump wasn't getting big money donations not a peep. Biden has big donors pulling out and it's catastrophic, forgetting that most of his campaign money is from grassroots donors, for which he has gotten the most grassroots donations, 38 million since the debate. What is this about? The fear that Kamala Harris might at some point be president. That's the case with any Vice President-why now. I am looking at who are the ones calling for him to get out of the race. They all fit a certain demographic. Heck even the squad members who have been adamantly opposed to his policies in Israel have backed him - all women of color by the way while, the congressional black caucus has, do we see a pattern here? There might be pragmatic reasons for Biden to get out. When people put their names in and stop being anonymous sources with concrete information then we can pay attention more. If Biden were to step down, the next would be how VP Harris cannot be the nominee because she's linked to Biden and her poll numbers are bad. Because it's no longer about the debate it's about poll numbers. It's valid to ask what their plans are for the remainder of the campaign, what everyone should be doing period, it's not valid to anonymously leak based on vibes.

I actually think he's doing fine. Outside of referring to VP Harris as VP Trump lol. Other than that he's been spot on. Of course they are looking for fault, so the daggers will be out regardless.

I agree with all of this and we just can't brush it off. I wasn't super concerned originally but as time has gone on, and the lack of initiative on the part of his staff and family(yes I'll say this) has been alarming. I am not sure what bubble they are living in, but the dismissiveness of current elected officials is not it. They can't pretend people can unsee what was seen. And continuing to shield the president has not helped. It's now been a week, and as of yet, not really any aggressive strategy to push back. there is time but there is not. And wasting a week now post debate? I put that on the 20 people who surround him on a regular basis. I like the President a lot and he's done a lot, but his team needs to be more aggressive. We also have to be realistic. How the presidency ages a person. I am old enough to remember Carter in 4 years and the big difference. And he was relatively young at 52. But he is running for 4 more years. Lets be honest about that and what the impact to him could be.

I'm not blind to the dangers we are in. It's happening all over the world. I have seen politicians so sure of themselves they shoot themselves in the foot. David Cameron was one and now I see Macron. But how can Europeans in countries who were in the middle of WW2 be turning to the same factions that got them war and a potential destruction of their own societies? That didn't happen here because we had better angels in our leadership, although there were a healthy amount of people who wanted the same thing here. Read about Father Coughlin and his following. It puts people who claim to have large followings today to shame. I'll also remind people that we still had Jim Crow, Native Americans, and the Japanese and how they were treated. Read about the mass deportations of MEXICAN AMERICANS to Mexico at the onset of the Great Depression. The other part people forget is the military. People say Trump will use the military against Americans. Those same people also forget the populations that make up the military today. I guess the unnerving part is how many Americans would just use the same rhetoric they do today. "I just want to live my life, don't talk to me about that". Yeah that doesn't work. We've seen it all over history. I'm not minimizing anything. The dumbest people IMO are those in the media who somehow really believe they are so special they are protected. They including their leadership would be some of the first to go.

Their waiting for VP Harris to be the nominee so they can start attacking the black woman.

I don't think a planned interview is going to stop the tide of media criticism or concern by voters. Maybe a little, but the fact is Biden needs to put himself out there more. I frankly think the debate while terrible for him, was not all his fault. Whoever had him prepping with all those facts should know that this debate was not really ever about detailed policy. And some of it sounded more like Hillary who is a policy wonk, than Biden. One of the things I like most about Biden is his authenticity. And the best parts of the debate for him were when those things showed through. I mean who doesn't remember Biden telling Trump "Will you just shut up" in the first debate they had. Best part of it and I think a lot of people appreciated the fact he said that.

This is true and if by chance the fascists get in in November(lets work hard so that doesn't happen), it won't change that shift coming and those same people won't put up with being marginalized.

I am hoping voters understand what this means. I mean I trust people of color to get it but many white voters really think the United States is so special that nothing will ever happen when it has happened for centuries. Of course while the Chevron decision is obscure just based on the name, the fact that SCOTUS has now made the President a King and is untouchable should resonate. That's how it needs to be said too. And that's what it is.

I was talking to my oldest brother about this exact topic today. He just retired. And while he agreed Biden did not have a good debate, he was talking about how the media seems to be forgetting for the first time in decades, polling shows a democrat, Biden, leading people 65 and over. He said he's really appalled and how ageist the press and media are and why are papers calling for Biden to step aside but not an unhinged Trump, who he says has deteriorated at a much greater pace. Forget his conviction. I'm constantly disappointed in my fellow white women and how we collectively vote, but I think this year is an exception in so many ways, I think we'll see lots more women voting for Biden. They won't provided Macron, who I continue to be disappointed in, does what the far left is doing, which is to pull any of his candidates out of the contest that finished third. So far they have claimed the left is as great a danger as Le Pen and her contingent and won't.

It's interesting how those undecided Latino voters on Univision went after the debate. Most of them agreed Biden was shaky but they actually listened to what the candidates were saying or maybe since English was not their native language(they were polled by an analyst they were interviewed by in Spanish) they might have read the answers. Most of them though Trump was lying non stop and was unhinged while they admitted Biden was shaky but felt his responses better lined up with issues they supported. The majority of undecideds there swung to Biden. It makes me wonder how many minorities were unchanged or did the same. I wonder do many of these folks maybe see themselves in Biden as the underdog and having been targeted. There is no question in my mind that while I believe Biden has slipped yes, that how Trump comes across and belligerent, self absorbed, and unhinged doesn't sit well with these populations. He sounds so much like the bigots of the past and present blaming all problems on everyone but him. It's not a shock to me seeing white democrats whine and fold and demand Biden step aside. And it's not a shock to see social media celebrate the fact that "Trump won". He clearly didn't. I would say neither won I'm not sure what the answer is, but I will parrot that McCain republican I saw interviewed that was part of a focus group after the debate. Biden could be in a coffin(sorry for saying this) but I'd still vote for him. And what hypocrites the press has become even more. When Bill Clinton was impeached, almost every paper in the country called for him to resign. When Trump was impeached the first time, only one paper called for it. And now the NY Times Editorial Board, the elites that they are, too stupid to know how no matter how much they lap up to Trump, he'd go after them also as president, come out telling Biden to step aside. I finally cancelled my final subscription which was only to the games section. I'll miss Wordle, the mini crossword, and regular crossword, but there are more important things.

The problem is you have some liberals who love to hate watch who will tune into MSNBC and CNN(maybe not as much now) to hate watch and then the right with Fox, Newsmax, etc. But most people aren't watching any of those networks or even much news, maybe local. I try my best not to cherry pick what I read but it's getting harder and harder. Outside of Pro-Publica who is really the only news source nationally I see doing investigative reporting, and maybe local news sources, who's left that is trustworthy. I'm honestly exhausted that political coverage has turned into entertainment. Yes it has been for a while but embedding a TV personality into our highest office(he's not a businessman) has really more quickly eroded trust in so many things, and it exposed to a greater degree what the media and national press has become. Greedy parasites. That's not Donald Trumps fault it's theirs.