JaneAusten

Traditionally that has been true. But I go back to several things over the years. 1. Fox was pushing the 2012 contest as being close. Now maybe it was the on air talent and not the polling. Obama won easily and was ahead in most polls most of the election season 2. They did fire the guy who called Arizona for Biden. I don't really trust any polling these days, but I will say this supports the data shared before Trumps conviction which some voters would switch over if a conviction happened. Or maybe more is less.The non stop talk about Trump in the media I don't believe at this point is an advantage. Outside of diehards, I think most people are sick of having Trump be the number one story for 8 years. On a side note, that primary election in Virginia with the 2 congressmen was another race not polled well. The polling had the Trump endoresed candidate way ahead and it's neck and neck.

Supreme Court rejects challenge to FDA's approval of mifepristone : NPR So mifepristone is safe for NOW due to standing. It wasn't based on anything other than this, which means it's still open for appeal at some point. Also the right is proposing to use the Comstock Act to block shipments of mifepristone by mail. Don't think this stops anything. I haven't read the opinions but I would not be shocked if Thomas or Scalia in their opinions included language guiding future suits they know might have a chance of making this ban the possibility of sticking. Women are not going to forget this. There is still one case yet to be announced that is an abortion case that has to do with a lot of what's been covered in the media, which can women be treated with livesaving procedures related to pregnancy related to an abortion. We'll see.

That's true but we are talking about averages. And George Bush was the incumbent then not a democrat. But I do think the narrative now is helping Biden and Roe is helping democrats. The media and press have helped turn Biden into the underdog. I am sure that is not what they intended. I never thought I would see a democratic presidential candidate leading in the second most reliable voting block, people over 65. And when SCOTUS allows the banning of mifepristone, just wait to see the impact of that.

@dramatistdreamer Oh thanks. When I am on online - not a lot these days - I am usually on Spoutible. There are several accounts I follow there and still some on twitter, but for the most part I stay away. Bouzy, Bonier, and Rosenburg about the only folks I trust in terms of predictions and polling analysis. You could say they have agendas - of course they do - but I have never found Bonier misleading people and he's been honest too, getting followers angry at him at times. The news media and press is in a shambles you are right. I also questioned Biden doing the Time interview , but it makes sense if you're trying to reach older people. The Stern interview I enjoyed and Stern is a better interviewer than people give him credit for and a finger to the Times. But the days ot the Times, Post, a lot of publications is short. I am just hoping onces things settle we end up with better mediums than twitter has turned into. It was never perfect, but now it's not just the far right, they are going to allow porn in. It truly is turning into 4chan. But you can still navigate your way through there if you focus on the accounts you follow only. The amusing part is you can tell the billionaires are scared. Their presence on X - well they seem to think the far right is prevalent in the US and it's far from it. They are not the ones filling their pocket books, but they do a good job of puffing them up but you can still tell how frightened and insecure they are. It's amusing frankly. And they have shown just how repulsive they are. I know Warren Buffet is ancient, but in this case less is more. I don't really know who cares about the opinion of people like David Sacks other than the paid trolls who follow him. Time will tell. I fully expect another round of how women are over our rights being taken away = round 50 = from the news media and press.

Sorry about the last post. I can't seem to edit it. I wanted to say the story in the US is how the far right prevailed. I saw the story in the Economist about how the far right did not achieve prediction estimates and how the middle held. It's almost like the US media is deliberately puffing up Trump and the polls to manufacture something more devious in November - riots by Trump cultists when Trump loses.

I doubt Arab Americans are that dumb. It's easy enough to just skip that race on the ballot. And even then I don't think they lack understanding of the complexity of the issue. But I do know they are not voting for Trump.

Honestly none of those people voted for Biden before so I don't believe what they say matters that much. And honestly there is very little that even matters about what most others say there either. I was watching an episode of Don Lemon's show on Youtube and he had Mehdi Hassan on as a guest. They were talking about Lemon's interview with Musk and Mehdi said he predicted what would happen as Don Lemon admitted many others did too. Mehdi actually complemented him on some of his questions and trying to hold Musks feet to the fire, but that Musk has never responded to challenges with reasonable actions or responses and Musk dumping Lemon was predictable and demonstrates what we all know, he does not nor ever has cared about free speech. All the platform IMO has done is has fully embarrassed people like Musk(there are other "Billionaires" on there) and they look ridiculous. No twitter hasn't failed as predicted but it's no longer a viable platform. It's a step above 4chan, if even that. Honestly Twitter has become more and more irrelevant. It's really not you know. I stay on primarily because there are people there who I still follow on there like Rosenburg, Bonier, Tom Nichols, and a few others. I know it's hard, but I try to ignore the rest. I do suggest Spoutible because it's very easy to transition to and it's built up a decent diversity of membership and many news sites are on there too.

Sorry about that. You have more backbone than I do. I have stuck with twitter although I use spoutible more and more now. I updated my post to include the 3 tweets.

Thoughtful thread by Tom Bonier on primary voters who did not vote Trump and it's something Biden=Harris should reach out to. @tbonier · May 2 Debunking the popular theory that Nikki Haley's relatively substantial support in GOP primaries has been due to Dem leaning voters flooding the GOP primary vote, thereby suggesting that Haley's strong showing isn't actually a bad sign for Trump... May 2 They were not substantially younger than the GOP voters (41% over 65 vs 45% among reg GOPs). They were overwhelmingly white (94% of Inds vs 97% of GOPs), and were actually more likely to be men (51% of Ind GOP primary voters vs 50% of GOPs). @tbonier · May 2 Every indicator suggests these Independents voting in GOP primaries are more likely GOP voters. They just don't like Trump. If I were the Biden campaign, I would be investing in outreach to any Ind who voted in a GOP primary (or if I was the @ProjectLincoln

Georgia had organizers. The last time I looked the Florida democratic party was still a mess. But I do think the media is overestimating Trump. He's underperformed in primaries and you can't blame everything on democrats voting in republican primaries for Haley when some of these primaries have been closed.

Folks need to spend time not only following Simon Rosenburg and Tom Bonier but Christopher Bouzy. All 3 were right about 2022. Read his thread here. I am not sure I buy his read on Florida. The democratic infrastructure there is a mess. But who knows.

I follow Tom Bonier and Simon Rosenburg and there have been 2 polls in the last few days that have not been good. Bonier explained why these were outliers. Most of the other polls have had Biden up. The CBS poll is up and that came out today which was more in line with others but I don't trust the polling. And you do know the media doesn't report the polls where Biden is up. I don't buy they all want Trump in. I do buy that they are stuck on the horserace and want to make people believe it.

You're giving the press and media power they no longer have. And I give more credit to on the ground operatives then people whose time is passing them by. The WH Correspondents dinner was a joke(it has been in more recent years) but this year felt more like a death nell. And I'm sorry I know the polling has improved for Biden, I have no faith in any of it. It's been wrong since 2016. And I really hope we're not talking about that skewed CNN poll showing more women voting for Trump. I can believe white women but not women. No fricking way.

Good grief a couple of articles. Tell me other than twitter fans and the Beltway - both in all cases out of touch with the mainstream, who is paying attention to them. I have been hearing since Dobbs how women are over this blah blah blah. And it's always men who equivocate. But please put your faith in the Beltway who has been wrong about this issue and most others for years.

I have not heard one person or outlet praising him for this not one. And it's not a decision. It's a coward's way out and no one is buying it. Certainly, women who are pro choice are not. In this same video he says he ended Roe - that's enough for me and most pro choice folks know he's a liar. He already said he'd sign a national abortion ban so who cares about this really. You have to forgive me for always going after the abortion posts because this is a personal issue for me. I am frankly tired of people mostly men by the way diminishing the impact of this. It made me happy to hear a friends husband who is a true small gvmt conservative said for the first time in years he'll be voting democratic(he voted independent in 2020 and in 2016). Why - this issue. He says there is absolutely nothing small gvmt about this.

What are you basing the idea about those believing the worst of him? Social Media? Or are we talking about the same people who believed the worst of Hillary and now Biden and believed the same in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022. I honestly see nothing to make me believe that. And black voters going 20 percent for Trump has not been proven by any election to date. None. So are polls more accurate than actual elections now? I honestly think polls should be ignored. Let the campaign worry about that. Trump is a symptom of all of this ugliness, but he did put gasoline on the fire which has been simmering for decades.

What do you choose to believe. Polls or actual elections. I keep hearing how black voters are moving to Trump yet every election we see shows 98% and above of voting for Biden in the primary or in general elections, 93 to 98% of black voters voting for the democrat. There is work to be done in the Arab American community. We are finally seeing some shifts in Israeli policy - moderation. I never expected Biden and company to do a huge shift. They can't and should not, but movement. Don't for a second believe Schumer made that speech without acceptance from the White House. As far as young people, BS. No way would they move from Biden to Trump. I'm sorry. More likely undecided or third party. There is work to do with all groups, African Americans, Hispanics, and Young people. I believe and know they will get there. By the way many new polls coming out now show Biden moving ahead of Trump in the General election. How many of those polls have you heard about. Follow Tom Bonier and Simon Rosenberg. That's who I follow who were both right about midterms. They and Chris Bouzy(spoutible) were the only ones who were right. By the way stop watching MSNBC who is an arm of the Trump campaign from what I hear. I was listening to a local radio station, WCBT 820 AM the progressive station, and a gentleman called in, a black man, saying he is retired and he loves to listen to news. He chastized Fox and MSNBC, MSNBC in particular because apparently all they do is talk about Trump non stop. I don't know because I don't watch it anymore. And here is an example of what trash NBC and MSNBC are NBC hires former RNC chair Ronna McDaniel, who has demonized the press and refused to acknowledge Biden was fairly elected | CNN Business Disgraceful. You hire this disgrace of a human being. That says everything about how there is no left in the media just sesationalistic garbage.

AMEN. He and Tom Bonier.

Thank you for posting this. I have always been a great admirer of hers. She is a progressive but never IMO showboated over it. She really had no chance in the race but she would have been my choice. I have a lot of respect for Adam Schiff and I understand why he was the choice, but I will always wish it could have been her. Best of luck to her in her retirement. She will be missed.

I have a difficult time dealing with fatalism and this is what I constantly had been seeing in the media. Trying to turn fascism into a self fulfilling prophecy. I had to turn away from it. Since I have, I am clearer about what the media and press is today and why so many people have turned against it. And it's not just the right who have created their own, it's the rest of us who can see how cynical and dishonest they have become. Nate Silver is done. Who is he now just another in a swarm of cynical social media personalities. He was fired from ABC, kicked out of 538, what does he have left. He's a bitter man who should be ignored. He lost any credibility he MIGHT have had when he behaved like a COVID-19 expert. It was embarrassing and ended his career. That Reddit thread that was posted in the media thread was an eye opener and it tells me people do know what's happening and what the press and media are doing. I just can't understand it because it's not like despite all of this, these folks or institutions would be trusted in a fascist society. They'd be the first to go. I choose hope. I'll put my faith in the good people who are still here. We are the majority and it's time we start acting like it and elevating things that matter to us and not allowing the darkness to flood more of the zone. There are many of us working our tails off, reaching out to people. It's why I was so confident about 2022. Either the media lied about abortion or they rigged all of the polling or they really were in shock about how much it mattered. I don't think any of these people are that stupid and that it was the people who run these organizations that pushed yet again a GOP narrative vs the truth. And all those who spread it are complicit. They don't get a pass and are not to be trusted. We know all that we just have to be smarter. And we have millions of others who want what we want - the new silent majority.

In what world was this reality? Because Welch agreed with that irrelevant loser Nate Silver? Or because a bunch of worthless pundits agreed with Silver?

I'm honestly shocked at how many people here are discounting everything that has happened to date and things still undecided. Do folks here realize our SCOTUS is due to make a ruling on Mifepristone? Do you understand that that in combination with that idiotic IDF ruling is going to have on top of Dobbs. I stand by what I said. Most people are not paying attention and social media and cable networks with a total viewing audience of less than 5,000,000 viewers does not equal all of the voters. Pundits frankly are irrelevant.

I guess people are just going to continue to believe the polls and the red wave that never happened. Biden is the most underestimated politician in my lifetime. He continues to outperform every expectation but somehow 2024 is the year it won't happen. It's tiring and maybe that's the point. It's still Dobbs and will continue to be so. In 2022 we were told women were over our rights being taken away. Every special election has gone for democrats because of - Dobbs. 2022 was going to be the CRIME election while Dobbs was rated by the MEDIA and POLLS as a 7% issue and what happened. It was the leading issue. And in what world are people really paying attention at this point. Trump is underperforming in every primary but he's dominating? Only in the minds of the online hoards and the media who has been wrong for years. But this year of course their right. Didn't they also pump up Sinema. And look where she has become. Just another lobbyist. Somehow in the back of my mind her final decision came when her biggest champion, McConnell, decided to step down. Where are she and Manchin? All they will be remembered for are sellouts if remembered at all.

Ghandi yes had some very distasteful views although I thought his views on Africans changed as he aged. That belief is controversial. I know he championed womens rights but then didn't change much in respect to women in his private life so who knows. It does sadden me that his vision for a secular democracy in India came to fruition to where is it now with many Hindi Nationalists now in control, spitting on his idea of democracy.

The speech was extroadinary and obviously designed for this occasion. She said out loud what Biden I believe has wanted to say for months. Couple this with Benny Gantz, Bibi's opponent and current member of the Israeli war cabinet visiting DC and specifically meeting with VP Harris. Netanyahu has not been invited to DC and refused to sanction or pay for Gantz's visit. Childish. The non peaceful protests of those men and include Ghandi and many others over the centuries says so much about that strategy. But lets not kid ourselves, all the actions of peace have not worked and many of those involved like Ghandi, MLK, heck even through in Jesus whether you believe in him as the savior or simply Jesus of Nazareth, so many of their own lives ended in tragedy. I do wonder what MLK's trajectory would have been had he lived. Sadly he was not destined to.