The Politics Thread

[JaneAusten]

I really wonder what's going to happen at Fox. Murdoch's sons allegedly want to make it more impartial and more a real news channel. I guess perhaps they can take over from what CNN was once upon a time.(well sort of)

[JaneAusten]

So whether is matters or not, apparently MSNBC did an unskewed version of the CNN poll and it shows Hillary still up by 4 points. The CNN poll assumes that the voting electorate will be 50% non college educated whites, so that's what their sampling allegedly included. That's assuming I guess all the other polls showing Clinton still maintaining a lead look at the demographics in a more realistic way. Unless we assume that the voting population will consist of 50% non college educated whites. That seems unlikely considering 39% of the electorate consist of African Americans and Hispanics.

Edited September 7, 2016 by JaneAusten

[Soapsuds]

CNN is just making up drama where there isn't .  The electoral votes as John King pointed out are still the same and if all stays the same she wins by a landslide. 

[DRW50]

An article on the Mercer family, one of Trump's big backers. Most of the focus is on Bekah Mercer. It just underscores again that a lot of unruly and opportunistic people jumped on his bandwagon and the GOP - and America - will not be getting rid of their influence regardless of the outcome in November.

 

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/donald-trump-rebekah-mercer-227799

[Chris B]

I think she will be fine. Last month she was focused more on behind the scenes fundraising which is crucial to the final months of this campaign. I'm sure September is going to be a big month for her and the press is now traveling with her, which hopefully will mean more stories about her from a more positive stand point. The fundraising is going to allow her to keep the machine going leading into the election, especially when it comes to advertising in the battleground states. Trump hasn't raised nearly as much money and his overspending between the expensive events always held at Trump properties and his private plane (which he flies back to NYC every night) are draining what resources he does have.

[Roman]

well Trump is now being called out for taking donor money and funnelling it to his businesses. 

The Murdoch Sons want to get rid of all the hate and vitriol on FN? turn it into a real news network? I'm all for it. 

Jane is right...http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/michael-wolff-murdoch-father-sons-919809

[JaneAusten]

Ugh I can't stand the fact that that cockroach Jeff Zucker is again considered some sort of wonderboy.

[quartermainefan]

Re-weighting polls to reflect previous elections is a waste of time.    That is what Dick Morris did to come up with the prediction Romney would win in a blowout.  If half the responders in your poll tell you they have no college, then half the responders in your poll have no college.    Dick Morris' ridiciulous predictions:

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[JaneAusten]

lol I remember that from 2012 and Fox predicting the election based on those averages.

 

Don't pollsters though weight the results of their polls based on the desired or demographic meaning if I got 60% non college educated whites responding and I know that only 30 percent of the voters are non college educated whites, wouldn't you let the data reflect the actual demographic. THe same would apply if I polled 1000 people and 600 of the respondents are African American, Well I would guess the results of that poll would be skewed also, so I always thought a number of respondents were randomly tossed to reflect the actual demographic makeup. The same thing at the state levels.

 

Saying that, what numbers do they actually use to reflect the demographics of likely voters, because we know for example democrats are terrible at showing up for midterm elections.

Edited September 7, 2016 by JaneAusten

[ReddFoxx]

Dick Morris weighted by party ID, which is a big mistake. Gallup messed in 2012 because they predicted that the electorate would be a lot more white that it actually was. Each election cycle, the electorate gets more and more minority, it doesn't regress.

[JaneAusten]

Yeah I kind of think they are doing that moreso this election cycle because of who Trump is attacking but I think it's a mistake because I actually think his own rhetoric is stirring up minorities moreso than ever. Maybe I'm wrong, but they also have to factor in the fact our demographics are evolving no matter how much they like to think that white rules.

[JaneAusten]

Yeah I kind of think they are doing that moreso this election cycle because of who Trump is attacking but I think it's a mistake because I actually think his own rhetoric is stirring up minorities moreso than ever. Maybe I'm wrong, but they also have to factor in the fact our demographics are evolving no matter how much they like to think that white rules.

[Vee]

For anyone who isn't, check out the live Commander-in-Chief forum on MSNBC/NBC. Hillary and Trump are appearing one after another (Hillary is up first, lost the coin toss) and answering questions.

 

ETA: Matt Lauer spent 10+ minutes out of 30 on emails, followed by a guy asking more questions about emails. This is supposed to be a foreign policy discussion. Then Lauer tried to shut her down when she was answering an actual substantive question and she cut him off and kept going.

 

I think she's done well despite what was mostly a hit job setup, but it's not going to move the needle with many not already voting for her. What will is Trump, next - unless Lauer goes easy on him. Even if he does, Trump can't handle being held to questions live.

I thought this was an hour each, but it's only 30 minutes and Matt Lauer tries to rush people through questions! It's like Supermarket Sweep, ridiculous. But Twitter is roasting Matt, and Hillary did dominate him.

Edited September 8, 2016 by Vee

[DRW50]

Jill Stein seems like your typical far left twit who missed a historic opportunity for her party. Between the anti-vax stuff (and no I don't believe it's a media or Hillary campaign against her - she has a history of playing coy on the issue and it bit her in the ass), the cute tweet about Hillary's health that she promptly deleted, and this silly stunt of spray-painting a bulldozer or whatever in North Dakota (which accomplishes nothing other than getting her charged - maybe that was the point all along, I don't know), she seems to be nothing more than a gadfly who will get far more support than she deserves based on not being Hillary and on sucking up to Sandernistas.

[Vee]

Trump is losing it.