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2 hours ago, DramatistDreamer said:

How I still know so much about NYC political machinations after all these years, despite no longer even living there.

 

So he won because he is a centrist? Or is it more about him being known in the community?

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, JaneAusten said:

So he won because he is a centrist? Or is it more about him being known in the community?

Likely a combination of both. He's a born and bred working class NYCer, which probably counts for a lot, in the wake of so many wealthy pseudo-NYers abandonment of NYC during the height of NYC's herculean struggle during the pandemic. People don't forget. 

Also, the number of people actually voting in this election seemed lower than usual, which probably means the most committed supporters were the ones who made the effort to actually cast their ballots. Many left-wing voters maybe fell away when Dianne Morales' campaign fell apart. Maya Wiley became somewhat ascendant during the latter stages of the primary, when perhaps it proved too late. 

Another factor is Kathryn Garcia, whose alliance with Andrew Yang did not appear to be enough to overtake Eric Adams, but clearly was enough to block Wiley's prospects. It's interesting that both Garcia and Wiley had their legal representation file papers even before the first votes were culled--which, I think had as much to do with the jostling with each other as it had to do with contesting Adams.

The results are not 100% final until certification but unless there is some "eleventh hour" madness, it appears that Adams' five boroughs strategy that de-emphasized the importance of the "well-heeled" and wealthy parts of Manhattan was very effective in capturing this race. He likely saw a lot of would be Manhattanites had fled NYC and wouldn't be bothering to cast votes in an election for a city in which they no longer live.

 

For the sake of the city that I still love in many ways, if and when Adams becomes mayor, I hope he makes good choices with who he surrounds himself with, what appointments he makes and what counsel he takes. The people of NYC, not just his supporters, will be depending on him. If he doesn't get it right, he won't get the second term that DeBlasio got to get things worse, he'll get the heave-ho if he doesn't show enough improvement in the city's prospects.

Edited by DramatistDreamer
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Posted (edited)

I'm opposed to ranked choice voting when it comes to primaries, primarily because certain candidates could form opportunistic alliances. (Certainly, candidates have every right to do so, but I'm not a fan of such machinations.) I think that a much better system is simply to have the top two vote getters advance to a runoff (unless one gets an outright majority). Though I can see some voters being disenchanted if they are displeased with both of the top two vote getters, a runoff does provide each of the remaining candidates with a chance to further expand his or her appeal.

I very much want to see the two-party duopoly come to an end, and ranked choice voting could work quite well in a general election (with a voter being limited to ranking his/her top two or three candidates). Though opportunistic alliances could also form during a general election, it would be extraordinarily unlikely for the Republican and Democratic nominees in a given election to make such an alliance. Whether it be ranked choice voting or a top-two candidate runoff, such a system would allow voters to seriously consider supporting third party and independent candidates without fear of "throwing away" their votes. (Even with RCV or a runoff system, I concede that minor party and independent candidates are likely to do quite poorly at first. But if their vote share increases, so will their money and their chances of participating in future general election debates, both of which are absolutely essential for electoral success.)

Regarding the NYC mayoral election, it's way too early to predict what will happen in the fall other than to say that Democratic victory is certain. What I will be very curious about is Eric Adams' margin of victory over GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa. Mr. Sliwa is a deeply flawed candidate, and NYC is way more Democratic today than it was when Rudy Giuliani ran for mayor, but Adams's candidacy will be harmed by Mayor de Blasio's unpopularity, NYC's crime surge, some voters' opposition to the police defunding movement, and the divisive Democratic primary. (The divisive 1989 primary between David Dinkins and Ed Koch certainly helped Giuliani that November. And the divisive 2001 runoff between Mark Green and Fernando Ferrer was a factor in Michael Bloomberg's general election win.)

While I think that the most likely scenario is that Adams wins by over thirty points, it wouldn't be the biggest shock in the world if the margin of victory is between ten and fifteen points. However, a single digit Adams victory would be a big surprise and likely complicate his efforts to be an effective mayor. I certainly don't see how Sliwa could manage such a strong showing, though I do think a Republican in the mold of Governors Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, or Phil Scott could perform such an electoral feat.

Edited by Max
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@dragonflies,  thanks for posting those photos. Sherrod Brown is a senator from my state (OH). Those are chilling.

In other "news", T**** the Attention Whore has announced that he is going to sue Twitter, FB, Google, YouTube, etc., for banning him. Why won't he just go away? Hasn't he caused enough problems?

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6 hours ago, Max said:

I'm opposed to ranked choice voting when it comes to primaries, primarily because certain candidates could form opportunistic alliances. (Certainly, candidates have every right to do so, but I'm not a fan of such machinations.) I think that a much better system is simply to have the top two vote getters advance to a runoff (unless one gets an outright majority). Though I can see some voters being disenchanted if they are displeased with both of the top two vote getters, a runoff does provide each of the remaining candidates with a chance to further expand his or her appeal.

I very much want to see the two-party duopoly come to an end, and ranked choice voting could work quite well in a general election (with a voter being limited to ranking his/her top two or three candidates). Though opportunistic alliances could also form during a general election, it would be extraordinarily unlikely for the Republican and Democratic nominees in a given election to make such an alliance. Whether it be ranked choice voting or a top-two candidate runoff, such a system would allow voters to seriously consider supporting third party and independent candidates without fear of "throwing away" their votes. (Even with RCV or a runoff system, I concede that minor party and independent candidates are likely to do quite poorly at first. But if their vote share increases, so will their money and their chances of participating in future general election debates, both of which are absolutely essential for electoral success.)

Regarding the NYC mayoral election, it's way too early to predict what will happen in the fall other than to say that Democratic victory is certain. What I will be very curious about is Eric Adams' margin of victory over GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa. Mr. Sliwa is a deeply flawed candidate, and NYC is way more Democratic today than it was when Rudy Giuliani ran for mayor, but Adams's candidacy will be harmed by Mayor de Blasio's unpopularity, NYC's crime surge, some voters' opposition to the police defunding movement, and the divisive Democratic primary. (The divisive 1989 primary between David Dinkins and Ed Koch certainly helped Giuliani that November. And the divisive 2001 runoff between Mark Green and Fernando Ferrer was a factor in Michael Bloomberg's general election win.)

While I think that the most likely scenario is that Adams wins by over thirty points, it wouldn't be the biggest shock in the world if the margin of victory is between ten and fifteen points. However, a single digit Adams victory would be a big surprise and likely complicate his efforts to be an effective mayor. I certainly don't see how Sliwa could manage such a strong showing, though I do think a Republican in the mold of Governors Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, or Phil Scott could perform such an electoral feat.

Honestly, I don't think so. Adams is a centrist and a former cop who was never in favor of defunding the police. He spoke out against it, which did not endear him to progressives.

It was rumored that he was DeBlasio's preferred candidate, but to my knowledge, DeBlasio never openly endorsed Adams.

Adams has baggage and Curtis Sliwa has massive baggage, including a history of faking rescue incidents with the Guardian Angels. Also, he just became a Republican last year, after years of systematically imploding the political party he once belonged to.  I guess the fact that he called Trump a crackpot could be seen as a positive but I don't see most NYers outside of SI and certain parts of Queens being willing to trust their city to a Republican.

not after four tragic years of Trump.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, DramatistDreamer said:

Honestly, I don't think so. Adams is a centrist and a former cop who was never in favor of defunding the police. He spoke out against it, which did not endear him to progressives.

It was rumored that he was DeBlasio's preferred candidate, but to my knowledge, DeBlasio never openly endorsed Adams.

Adams has baggage and Curtis Sliwa has massive baggage, including a history of faking rescue incidents with the Guardian Angels. Also, he just became a Republican last year, after years of systematically imploding the political party he once belonged to.  I guess the fact that he called Trump a crackpot could be seen as a positive but I don't see most NYers outside of SI and certain parts of Queens being willing to trust their city to a Republican.

not after four tragic years of Trump.

Though Adams opposes defunding the police, it's not uncommon for major party nominees to be hurt by stances taken by the party's base (even if such views differ from those of the candidate). This isn't the best parallel to what might happen in NYC, but Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger seemed to believe the "Defund the Police" messaging is what caused problems for her and other House Democrats in 2020 (in spite of the fact that Spanberger herself doesn't hold such views).

If we're talking about executive branch positions, major party nominees will usually be hurt if they are running to succeed an unpopular incumbent. The most obvious recent example of this was with John McCain in 2008, whom I believe was damaged more by George W. Bush than by Sarah Palin. And when Larry Hogan won a stunning victory to become Governor of Maryland in November 2014, the unpopularity of then-Governor Martin O'Malley proved to be a factor in the downfall of the Democratic Party's gubernatorial nominee that year.

If I lived in NYC, I most definitely would not vote for Sliwa given all the skeletons in his past. But the scenario I mentioned (of a ten-to-fifteen point Adams victory) could conceivably happen if (1) Sliwa can capitalize on the factors I previously mentioned, (2) there's huge turnout in the Trumpy portions of the city, and (3) there's low turnout everywhere else. Of course, Adams winning by 30+ points is the far more likely outcome given that NYC is overwhelmingly Democratic and given that Sliwa will be saddled with both Trump's massive baggage as well as that of his own.

Edited by Max
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I just would never conflate NYC politics with what happens in national politics, NYC is an entirely different beast and that's why so many prognosticators got the primary wrong this time around. Actually, the prognosticators seem to get NYC politics more wrong than right.

Adams is not typical of his party, he is often described as an iconoclast, more singular-- pundits are unsure if anyone else could have replicated what he and his campaign did because almost no one has the type of bio that he has, certainly no one in NYC political life.

Also, voters clearly favored centrists this time at the mayoral level but that hasn't been the case in races for other city-wide offices. The winners in most of those races have been progressives, a few are staunchly progressive. I would say that the progressive wing in NYC is far more active than the Trump supporters in NYC. Remember, this is NYC, not New York state.

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Posted (edited)

I’m definitely hearing people in neighborhoods like mine—Upper Manhattan, the Bronx, outer reaches of Brooklyn—feeling unsettled by unusual spikes in violent crime over the past several months, and Adams was pretty much the only candidate in the Dem primary who gave voice to our fears. People don’t want a return to the bad old days, which preceded my time here in the city.

Edited by Faulkner
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