FiveThirtyEight shared their interactive election forecast generator here. It's helpful to understand what that fault lines are for a Trump win: he needs Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas to win - if he loses any of those states he has a less than 1% chance of winning the election. 

49 minutes ago, Skin said:

FiveThirtyEight shared their interactive election forecast generator here. It's helpful to understand what that fault lines are for a Trump win: he needs Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas to win - if he loses any of those states he has a less than 1% chance of winning the election. 

Frankly, and this is not a criticism of you, I am getting tired of the entire media ecosystem providing all the things Trump must do to win, as if they want him to. Well of course they do.

26 minutes ago, JaneAusten said:

Frankly, and this is not a criticism of you, I am getting tired of the entire media ecosystem providing all the things Trump must do to win, as if they want him to. Well of course they do.

 

The only scintilla of interest I have in the GOP is to learn whose party it actually belongs to-- Trump or McConnell? At this point, as exemplified by the internecine battle over the stimulus, it would appear that it has to be either one or the other, as both men are working at cross-purposes at this juncture.

2 hours ago, Skin said:

FiveThirtyEight shared their interactive election forecast generator here. It's helpful to understand what that fault lines are for a Trump win: he needs Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas to win - if he loses any of those states he has a less than 1% chance of winning the election. 

He'll get all of those.  We just need MN, MI, PA and WI and hang on to the states Hillary had.  I don't worry about the states we're going to lose - I want the ones we can win.  FL is a lost cause and we spend too much time there.  GA - never going to happen.  NC - better chance but probably not.  OH and TX can go.  Not worth the time.  

 

I'm Virginia, and I take every Political call for polls that I get.  And I lie.  I tell them I'm 100% Republican Trump all the way and I'm switching from Democrat to Republican and I'm not above lying at this point.  Let him and his cronies think they're doing better than they are.  

 

  

 

And more:

 

 

Edited October 21, 20205 yr by Vee

Can’t. Make. This. Sh!t. Up.

2 hours ago, Fevuh said:

He'll get all of those.  We just need MN, MI, PA and WI and hang on to the states Hillary had.  I don't worry about the states we're going to lose - I want the ones we can win.  FL is a lost cause and we spend too much time there.  GA - never going to happen.  NC - better chance but probably not.  OH and TX can go.  Not worth the time.  

 

I'm Virginia, and I take every Political call for polls that I get.  And I lie.  I tell them I'm 100% Republican Trump all the way and I'm switching from Democrat to Republican and I'm not above lying at this point.  Let him and his cronies think they're doing better than they are.  

 

It sounds like you think this is going to be a really close race? 

1 hour ago, Faulkner said:

Can’t. Make. This. Sh!t. Up.

I can't believe this is real life.  I wonder if he has dementia. Seriously.

45 minutes ago, Skin said:

 

It sounds like you think this is going to be a really close race? 

My friends are scaring me now.  I was not in good shape with this a few months ago and then my mood and thoughts got more positive and so did my friends.  We just didn't feel we had a chance and then things turned.  Now I feel things turning back again and I wish this election was today.  And we all argue over whether the early turnout and mail-ins are better or worse for Democrats.  What I do hope is this - if Dump's challenge of Pennsylvania counting votes 3 days after the election...if he blocks it and is successful, I hope it backfires.  No one knows what's in those envelopes so let him cut off his own nose.  

 

I can tell ya, I really want PA and get MN, WI, and MI.  Some midwest would be nice since he always crowed about having all of mid America and only the big stupid states in the NorthEast and West went Hillary/Democrat.  So I'd love to see a blue AZ, NM, CO, and maybe NV.  Iowa in play but I don't hope for that.  But it sure would be nice to see some blue in the midwest and a bigger string out West.  I have family in North Carolina and they are canvassing heavily and think we have a real chance there. Just a few of these flip states and we win.  FL would be a back breaker but I don't count on that for one hot second.  I want Pennsylvania badly. 

 

I've donated to Mark Kelly in AZ and also Harrison in South Carolina...that bastah Graham needs to go.  And get out of the closet.  Locally a few years ago I worked on Danica Roem's campaign here in Virginia.   

Y'all obviously never knew Giuliani, who, imo has always been S.O.B. Even his own kids couldn't stand him mostly because of the way he constantly humiliated their mother. His personal predilections were happily ignored because he pretended to get rid of the mob (hint: he didn't). I won't even get into his abhorrent policies during his mayoral tenure. You all were snowed by his crafted image as "America's Mayor" that he cultivated on the backs of first responders and over the bodies of victims. Giuliani was at minimum a jerk who became increasingly intoxicated with his accumulation of power and at most a venal presence who lacked basic compassion for NYers who were not well-heeled and white. I lived in NYC during Giuliani years and if you think the issues that spurred the BLM movement didn't exist, just look up the names Abner Louima and Amadou Diallo. Chris Rock once "joked" that if you were Black in NYC during the Giuliani years, you could be shot while taking out the garbage in front of your own home. Most Black NYers during that time knew that that was only a slight exaggeration, but not by much. I don't feel one bit sorry for any embarrassment the man has coming his way.

I do not think this is going to be that close. But I am still staying very vigilant and very nervous.

 

 

Edited October 21, 20205 yr by Vee

 

 

Ratcliffe, of all people!, literally just said that any claims of election fraud or voter interference are "just untrue." He just tanked Trump's narrative.

 

This appears to be an attempt to blame election interference inside the U.S. from white supremacists on foreign powers. tbh they can cover their ass all they like, AFAIC. All that matters to me today is this is not Comey II, not that I think that would work as well this time. And it does severely damage Trump's claims.