The Politics Thread

[janea4old]

 

Quoting emptywheel:
"These two clips show, I think, that when she has a chance to do that, either what she says or the references she makes or the empathy and leadership she models can be successful in persuading people not just that she’ll put their interests first, but that they’ve been lied to."

 

---

A few more thoughts in a *different* blog post from Emptywheel,
regarding the Univision town halls,
and Kamala Harris being interviewed by Baier on Fox :
https://www.emptywheel.net/2024/10/17/hen-in-the-fox-house-kamala-harris-alludes-to-what-you-and-i-both-know/

Edited October 18, 2024 by janea4old

[DramatistDreamer]

Thanks so much for the link because I haven’t been able to see any “X” embedded links for a while.

[marceline]

I don't believe the race is tied. I know that social media is obsessed with that idea but I don't buy it. When OH put a repro rights amendment on the ballot, it passed 53 to 47. I think this race is similar.

[DramatistDreamer]

Oh, they don’t really want her there, especially since she’s from California because the Catholic diocese on L.A. County is in a mess, as they often are known to be.

Catholic Archdiocese of Los Angeles agrees to $880 million settlement over sex abuse of children

VP Harris being a former prosecutor and all, and them shielding so many predators.

[JaneAusten]

Just live the "Red Wave" polls being fed into polling averages, now the rigging of Polymarket exposed.

 

[DRW50]

Everything with the betting markets seems false. I do think there's been real movement toward Trump, as it seems to be hitting almost every poll, Harris has changed her campaign decisions quite a bit in the last few weeks, and the early voting numbers in places like Virginia, NC, etc. aren't good (although some may just be a natural reversion from 2020), but the only reason these betting markets get so much prominence now is to create a narrative.

 

Even with the blowback, I am glad she skipped the dinner, in large part for the reasons you mentioned. Dolan seems like trash anyway.

One of the problems is a lot of people who vote for the amendment are likely still going to vote Republican - I read an article about how this seems to be happening in Arizona. 

(I'm not saying the amendments still aren't important - sorry if that comes across)

I would disagree with that many people being undecided - I think it's probably closer to 4-5%, and unfortunately many who say they are undecided seem to end up leaning toward Trump. That's what seemed to happen in 2016 and 2020, and his approval ratings are higher than ever now.

Some glimpses of the flyers Musk is spreading in swing states. If you are getting any of the propaganda the media is spreading about how he's a great guy who was just mistreated by Biden, it is probably just the beginning of his bootlickers trying to clean up after him and all the money he's costing them.

 

Edited October 18, 2024 by DRW50

[Vee]

I don't either. It may be tied in the way the polling is being done which understandably makes many of us tense (me included), but I haven't been convinced it'll actually be that close on the night for quite some time. People doing these doomsday scenarios of barely ekeing out a victory with 276 EV or something are deep in their own nightmares to me.

I'm tenser than I was in '20 or '22, but a lot of that has to do with the unusual circumstances of this cycle and the heightened threat post-J6. I've suspected for some time this may look something like the midterms on the night of and we may put it away much earlier than anyone in media had expected.

I think most of that is natural tightening towards the end of a race, and not that surprising given Harris has only been in the race since the end of July. I also think the polling underreports or overweights a lot of groups on account of the assumption of Trump Magic, and early voting that is not going to happen the same way as in the middle of a pandemic.

The rest is PTSD Dems or angry Twitter leftists bedwetting over the One Weird Trick they would do with her campaign instead. Of course I can think of things I would do differently, but I see little serious change in that campaign since two months ago and it's been an insanely rushed timetable.

Edited October 18, 2024 by Vee

[Khan]

By and large, women aren't going to forget how SCOTUS reversed their reproductive rights.  That's going to influence how they vote - not just in this election year, but many others to come.

[Wendy]

I pray to God I'm anxious for nothing, but Trump is now 1.6% ahead of Harris in Georgia. I'm starting to get uneasy 2016 vibes.

A part of me believes - has always believed - that this country is so entrenched in misogyny that it refuses to vote for a woman for POTUS, no matter how qualified. And that is where foreign nations are well ahead of us.

If I'm wrong and Kamala is victorious? FANTASTIC.

Still, it's devastating to think voters would rather lose democracy and their rights and vote for an elderly dementia-riddled felon because this nation cannot let go of "old white male for POTUS" syndrome.

[DRW50]

I think Georgia and Arizona are both a reach this year, but what reminds me of 2016 is the struggles in the "blue wall" states. I know Politico is biased, but the number of pieces about Michigan and Pennsylvania difficulties is making me wary. The other similarity is how many union members seem to be moving away from the party. A great deal seems to be down to misogyny, but Biden 2020 also papered over a number of cracks the party has been facing in blue collar support, losing support from some black or Hispanic voters, etc. So many also seem to have reverted to the 2016 mindset they had with Trump where they just make him whatever they want him to be and ignore his actual history and the comments he makes today (they also seem to ignore his clearly decayed mental state).

We even have a new version of Julian Assange in Elon Musk, not hiding behind Wikileaks this time but instead using shadow groups to flood the market with endless propaganda against Harris.

https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2024/10/pro-trump-dark-money-network-tied-to-elon-musk-behind-fake-pro-harris-campaign-scheme/

I know it's hypocritical to post these given what Musk has done to Twitter but the thread shows many of the ads he's running against her. One in particular, echoing anti-Semitic talking points that Doug Emhoff is a puppet of Israel and controls Harris, is especially disgusting.

 

[Vee]

Except in 2016 those weren't the polls. We never saw it coming.

I do think we'll take GA and PA, and very possibly Michigan too.

[Vee]

 

David Plouffe on the race.

[DramatistDreamer]

I don’t watch most television news in general, so my perspective is likely vastly different from most members in this thread.
It is somewhat interesting to note though, that many newspapers (*coughs* NYT) are starting to publish articles that question the accuracy of polls and note when polls have gone wrong.
Also, I noticed that they recently printed an Opinion essay in which the author dismissed the importance of swing states, claiming that something that they refer to as “microcommunities”. 

[Khan]

I'm glad Obama brought up that incident between McCain and the woman who called Obama an Arab and so forth.  Say what you will about McCain, but I thought his response to that lady - basically shutting her down, as Obama says - was perfect.  Others (like Trump) would've reinforced her ignorance and prejudice, but McCain wouldn't.  Don't get me wrong, I'm glad McCain ultimately lost the election, but if not for the fact that he had an absolute loon for his running mate, I think I would've been okay with him becoming president.

Edited October 19, 2024 by Khan

[DramatistDreamer]

His volatile response to the 2008 global financial crisis didn’t really inspire much confidence by me. Still, if we’re a choice between him and TFG, at least McCain would have deployed the National Guard to help, not as a threat against his personal enemies.