The Politics Thread

[Soapsuds]

Romney was no where near Obama until the media pimped(kissed his ass) Romney to no end. Really how did this become such a close race?? Because of one debate Romney supposedly did well??? GMAB

I cant wait until tomorrow to see Romney's(the grinning idiot) and Ryan's(the dork) faces.

[JaneAusten]

I know Ann was not impressed with the Nate Silver feature on CBS Sunday Morning, but I thought they actually did a pretty decent job trying to help the dumbed down viewer as to why he's different and perhaps more accurate. They compared the election this year (sort of)to the Election between Eisenhower and Stevensen and that then, they had a computer that was predicting a landslide by Eisenhower while all the polls had the race a toss up. At that time CBS was afraid of disclosing that information for fear of looking foolish. At the end of the day the computer was right and it was a landslide. Their point was that Nate Silver uses science and crunches numbers vs letting opinions and emotion drive his predictions.

Edited November 6, 2012 by JaneAusten

[alphanguy74]

Well, Newt is predicting Romney to win by OVER 300 electoral votes. He's kind of delusional, ain't he?

[alphanguy74]

It's always trbouled me how Republicans time and time again steal pop songs for their campagins without asking, and having to be served with cease and desist orders. It didn't used to be that way, they used to ahve their own campaign songs written FOR THEM. Even tricky Dick didn't steal someone else's song:

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[Wales2004]

Yes, Santa Ana winds. By Friday it's supposed to drop to about 66.

They're all over the map. They're crediting hurricane Sandy. They're blaming a possible Romney loss on the lying Jeep ad. Tamron Hall said it depends on how many white people turn out to vote:74% and Obama wins and 75% and Romney wins. Tomorrow they may come up with a new set of explanations and guesses.

[quartermainefan]

[Wales2004]

It's odd how a few of those polls just show evaporation for Mitt Romney like all those people simply changed their minds about voting. That Reuters one seems to make the least sense.

[JackPeyton]

The media, esp cable news, is desperate for this to come as close as it possible can. They have been from the start. They need this to drive content and get viewers into a frenzy and whatnot. I have never believed Romney had any real shot at winning, and once he got the little momentum he did get it was to little, too early and was gone well before voting day.

Nate Silver is awesome at what he does.

Its very interesting about the computer and CBS.

It was like 95 degrees inland today. it was crazy. while its normally never cold here, it is usually only in the 80s here in nov.

I think it is a combination of things. Romney lost what little steam he had, that jeep ad and seemingly the auto industry backing Obama, high profile republicans shifting to Obama publically, sandy and the fact that romeny wants to defund fema, romneys trying to use sandy to gain while obama actually got out there and didnt appear desperate for votes, etc.

Romney is truly unlikable too. It truly seems like people are voting for him due to party lines, not being Obama, or not being black. Ive seen pretty strong republicans turn on him, most are just not going to vote. I know of one that is actually going to vote Obama.

This is my second pres election I am able to vote in, and for me it was much different than the last one. With McCain vs Obama I was truly unsure of who to vote for as i truly fell down the middle between the two. From my perception, The Media was much kinder to Obama than McCain and it seemed very obvious he would win and that seemed to be how most outlets wanted it. This year around I went in basically knowing who I was voting for (and a little bummed that I realized my vote doesnt count for much due to the electoral college, that i also have mixed feelings about). There were some interesting republicans but once it came down to Romney i was 100% Obama. I dont feel like this round was as negative, or maybe thats just my memory playing tricks? I was shocked tho at how truly hateful, regressive, and awful Mitt Romeny was and how people backed him. The only time he impressed me was that first debate: He came to win and he did damn good at it. Of course this is when the race suddenly got neck and neck and too close to call and blah blah blah. He seemed very cocky after it and its been great to watch him crash and burn now.

I am interested to see how the CA props turn out. I really hope the three strike reform goes through.

[Ann_SS]

Subtracting a poll done before Sandy to one done after fails to interpret statistical data appropriately. Almost all the state polls since the second debate have shown the trend that independents have been constantly moving toward the President. Of course, this is difficult to see unless you carefully study them like Nate Silver (FiveThirtyEight) and Wang (Princeton Election Consortium) have done. But if you subtract almost any a poll done since the after the first debate from one done more recently, it will show that the independents have been breaking for the President. There are outliers like the Gallup poll which is why I suspect it was not included that table. Romney has not had any "momentum" in the state polls since before the second data despite the claims otherwise of his campaign, their allies, and the media.

Edited November 6, 2012 by Ann_SS

[Vee]

Trust me, the media adored John McCain. He'd been courting them for years on his campaign bus and at various events designed to charm them. He was a war hero, he made them feel rugged and masculine by association. They loved him to death. "Good news for John McCain" became a punchline throughout the 2008 campaign. There's a reason he's still consistently a favorite of the Sunday morning Beltway press shows, despite being increasingly angry and irrational. He's a Beltway sweetheart. But eventually most of them could not ignore the train wreck of the last two months of the campaign.

Edited November 6, 2012 by Vee

[JackPeyton]

Oh, very much so. I didnt mean to imply they didnt love him too, but outside of Fox everything I watched seemed more than less to be rooting for Obama. Except that moment when Sarah Palin entered the picture. Things shifted, but it didnt last. Thankfully.

[marceline]

I don't think the media was kinder to Obama but the historic nature of his candidacy couldn't be overlooked. A lot of the celebration of Obama was a celebration of just how far the country had come. That's why the whole "take our country back" meme is so sickening and reads as inherently racist. Obama's candidacy was also a celebration of what used to be the American Dream: that no matter who you are, where you come from, what your name is or how less-than-ideal your circumstances if you work hard you can achieve greatness and even make history. That's part of the reason the personal vitriol from the right is so disgusting. Obama exemplifies everything we were taught America stood for so apparently the right-wing has decided that America stands for something else now. I'm not sure what that is but it apparently includes tax breaks for the wealthy and legitimate rape.

Edited November 6, 2012 by marceline

[quartermainefan]

The media loved McCain. Maverick this, Maverick that.

[JaneAusten]

Ok I voted on my way to work this morning and it was very busy. Anyway I haven't voted by paper ballot in so long, I did this time because the line for touch screen voting was longer. Stupid me was expecting to see the old punch card machines forgetting they abolished that after the hanging chad fiasco of 2000. I felt silly looking around for a station with a punchcard until one of the judges corrected me.

Anyway I wanted to mention how often folks forget about the voting for judges. Many people just ignore it or vote party lines.And in Cook County in Illinois which is heavily democratic, many judges run unopposed. BUT for circuit court judges you must vote a yes or no to vote in or vote out a judge and they must get a 60 percent yes vote to be voted in and an overwhelming no vote to get booted. People need to do their homework on these offices.The Chicago Bar Association here in Illinois, the Chicago Council of Lawyers, The Report for Judicial Performance in Cook County(JPA) all weigh in on Judicial performance. The JPA is non partisan and only issues reports on the rulings and performances of candidates.Do your homework it takes maybe 30 minutes. The Chicago Tribune always does an endorsement list of judges using these sources and for years my dad used to tear out that section of the paper before the election and take it with him when voting to know what judges to vote for and against. This year I was reading the JDA site one one of the judges in particular who has actually physically abused court members and has never once been charged with a thing.Needless to say she was on the 'No' list. In the old days, Mike Royko would have likely written a column about her or someone in the media would have investigated and done something. Today I guess no one cares much.

Edited November 6, 2012 by JaneAusten

[alphanguy74]

That was brilliantly put, Marceline.