The Politics Thread

[JaneAusten]

I think the fact that the polls really haven''t moved is maybe an indication of that not being the case. I keep hearing this and it's obvious now this entire week has been media driven and how desperate the media and press are to make this a horseface. Biden is actually up 0.4 since both conventions. Not much but it defeats the narrative the media and press have been pushing the past week. They can't hide their intentions anymore and you are absolutely right about what the media and press want.

 

All I know is it hasn't changed the work I know people are doing. No one is throwing in the towel and while yes you have swiftboating PACS, etc.  I am beginning to think that the dirt isn't having an impact. Biden got pushed by the media in going to Kenosha and he backed off for a reason. Perhaps because internal polling has shown nothing has changed as we are seeing now.

 

People care about the unrest but they care more about their kids in school and the coronavirus, the economy, and the turmoil. 

[OzFrog]

Obviously the state polls will be the ones to watch, especially with some saying that Trump and Biden are neck and neck in places like MI and WI. But like some others on here, I believe that as long as Biden can maintain the wide national margin that he has right now, I think we will start to see some states widen their margins somewhat. Only time will tell though, we can hope.

[DRW50]

 

Part of the problem is the narrative the media sets - which is why they have kept steadily trying to tell people to stop caring about COVID. Most people didn't care about Hillary's e-mails either but the media made it the story 24/7 and it tipped the election. They are doing this again and downplaying anything which might break away from that story (for instance, Kamala Harris gave a prebuttal to Trump's speech last week that was barely covered). I am just hoping it won't be enough. For now the polls haven't taken a huge hit. I think that will change, but whatever happens, Biden's team doesn't seem to be overly poll-focused anyway, which is for the best. 

 

I do wonder why Biden chose not to go to Kenosha. I know many see this as a mistake, a sign that he is ignoring Wisconsin. I don't know. I wonder if some on his team felt that it would come across as grandstanding and exploitation, especially since some pundits continue to insist he needs to have a "Sister Souljah" moment. If he goes there and tries to speak up it may come across as that type of moment, whether it is intended or not. Even now he is being criticized for his remarks for "extorting" the public with his speaking out against riots -  so really, he can't win whatever he says. A part of me wishes there was a way he didn't have to say anything until after he wins, but I know that isn't how this works. So I just have to hope the damage isn't too heavy and the results aren't close enough to where Trump can steal the election.

[OzFrog]

Trump appears to be losing the troops...

 

 

[DRW50]

 

One of the problems is many of the polls out now are junk polls, many deliberately created solely to help Trump and to lower Biden's average. One, called Trafalgar, openly admits to adding on points for Trump because of a "shy Trump" voter. This idea that everything is breaking toward Trump and people just don't want to admit it is one of the reasons the betting markets are now going his way and major players like JP Morgan are pushing him as the winner. 

 

 

I do think this is nonsense - there may be some voters who are reluctant to talk about supporting Trump, but I don't believe most of them would be reluctant talking to a pollster. However, it makes me wary of what they are planning. You have this narrative being pushed constantly by the press and finance. You have Trump and the party saying you can't trust voting. You have Ron Johnson saying "citizen soldiers" need to be out on the streets. 

 

The more time passes the more I am starting to think they may try to just declare the elections invalid - with heavy support from the media - and insist that "shy Trump voters" and the people out there in trucks and boats for him prove he won. And if there are protests, then the military and the police - and "citizen soldiers" will be ready and waiting. 

 

If so I just hope that some of the countries we've spurned over the years will try to help us out, if they even think we're worth bothering with at this point. 

[OzFrog]

 

I saw that tweet, but only because Nate Silver himself has come out with guns blazing to say just how inaccurate it is.

[DRW50]

 

Yeah, I decided to post his comments as well as I thought he did a good job debunking the lunacy. Sadly it has become conventional wisdom for some in both parties and much of the press. This gives him a real opening to just declare himself winner and not get real pushback beyond the protesters he's going to spend the next few months trying to turn into hate figures. 

[Faulkner]

 

[victoria foxton]

 

  

[janea4old]

 

 

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[Vee]

He's played this well. 

 

 

[Vee]

@DRW50

 

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[Wendy]

Don is losing his tenuous grip on reality, if he ever had it. Hope someone hid the nuclear codes.

 

With the courts not siding with him with regard to his financials, he is PANICKING. Staying in office is the only escape he has and that is fast slipping away.

[rlj]

 

[JaneAusten]

"The last MC poll sparked a lot of chatter" only by the pundit class. Especially since the MC poll last time had numbers that added up to 102%.