The Politics Thread

[Vee]

I... don't think there is a strong likelihood the GOP will keep the Senate.

[DRW50]

 

I think TPM (the main political site I read, although they are becoming more tabloid-ish in tone) has it as 49-48 GOP right now with their poll tracker. 

 

The heavy push about the Clinton Foundation stuff would also make people more wary even if they vote for her. I think some are naive enough to think the GOP need Congress to be some type of balance to her, not realizing the GOP will just continue to gut the country. It's the same stuff every 2 years with some voters.

Edited October 28, 2016 by DRW50

[DramatistDreamer]

Most articles that I've read have stated that that GOP will lose the Senate and Republicans are preparing for this. They may barely be able to hold onto the House.  Everywhere I've read has reported that most Repbublican Senators believe the Senate is lost to them and they're strategizing on what to do.

[Vee]

Right now they're trying to save the House. That I think they have a pretty good shot at, but I also believe we can take the House.

 

Meanwhile: Uncle Joe rides again?

[DRW50]

 

I read they're getting a new secret money blitz for the Senate so I figure it must be pretty close.

 

Anyway this is the article I was talking about. A blurb really. 

 

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/buckle-up-folks

[DramatistDreamer]

A lot of Republican women may be abandoning the GOP, and they may not return.

Abandoning Donald Trump and, for Some Women, the G.O.P., Too

 

Very interesting stats...

Hillary Clinton Leads by 7 Points in Pennsylvania Poll

 

Edited October 28, 2016 by DramatistDreamer

[DRW50]

Another media darling shows his true colors. There was a lot of gasping and tsk-tsking when one of the major newspapers in Illinois said his stroke made him unavailable to serve as a senator. Well they likely had a valid point.

 

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/mark-kirk-makes-racist-comment-tammy-duckworth-heritage

[JaneAusten]

I live in Illinois and in what world is Mark Kirk a media darling. The Clueless Beltway Press? Sure he got elected and got a lot of empathy as a result of his stroke which was several years back, but he's been no one's darling here the past 2 years, even if he did come out against Trump and did say the senate should vote on Garland he didn't lift a finger to do anything. That's why as soon as Tammy Duckworth announced she was running, she was immediately ahead of him. Honestly I think I former governor who's now in jail could have run against him now and beat him, that's how much he's hated here now.

I only follow PEC now. Silver's erratic numbers and his defensive behavior got me off his site for good. As a mathematician myself, I started digging into Silver's model and while I understand it, he doesn't expose some key components of it. And despite his reputation for being right in 2012, he got the senate wrong and he claimed Trump was going to flame out. Neither happened. Wang's model statistically makes a whole lot more sense and it's been fairly stable this entire election season. Plus he also go 2012 right and also called all the senate races correctly PLUS he was about the only one who actually predicted Trump to win the GOP nomination

 

Read the latest on the polling

http://election.princeton.edu/

 

And his senate race predictions. He's acknowledged that those races are tight and that's why people should not get complacent. I respect Josh Marshall and even Upshot but I don't buy their predictions as strongly as Wang. And Wang is not an attention whore or click seeker. In fact he kind of took a shot at those in his recent column who seem to want to use him as a safety net and to make them feel better. Me I just don't believe in the volatility one way versus the other. Mathematically unless there was some major event or catastrophe it doesn't make sense. That's why so many former 538er's are now with Wang

[DRW50]

 

For years he was hyped by the national press as a "reasonable" "moderate" Republican, along with those long ago turfed out like Chris Shays. This mostly wound down a few years ago. 

Edited October 28, 2016 by DRW50

[Juliajms]

I just saw the FBI is reopening the case into Hillary's private server.  This is so tiresome.

[Vee]

Ugh, Comey.

 

It won't matter to the election much, but it'll be all the media will talk about for a week because they're desperate to try and preserve the last shreds of the horse race. Unless Trump has another skeleton waiting to pop out (he surely does, but it's a question of timing).

 

And now:

 

 

Edited October 28, 2016 by Vee

[quartermainefan]

 

 

He is going to recommend charges I bet.   It doesn't make sense that he is reopening a case just to confirm the fact that he has no case.    Some of these emails leaked have been interesting.   The whole Bill Clinton making millions thing seems a little sleazy.    They never seem to cross  into outright illegality but the way his assistant was shaking down contributors to get them to give bill half a million dollar speaking gigs is just wrong.   I think they know it is wrong because if it wasn't she would have had Bill give a press conference explaining it all away.

Edited October 28, 2016 by quartermainefan

[Vee]

 

Uh, no, he's not. His note is largely a matter of procedure and form based on the recent leaks - which Comey, a Republican, has attempted to spin for the media along with Jason Chaffetz as 'a new investigation.' You can see the media already beginning to (very grudgingly) walk that back per the FBI.

Edited October 28, 2016 by Vee

[dragonflies]

Cause he knows he can't manipulate/control Hillary like he can/could Trump

[Vee]

Pete Williams is saying that the latest FBI data apparently has nothing to do with HRC or Clinton emails.

Edited October 28, 2016 by Vee