The Politics Thread

[Roman]

thanks now...and IA....it's 6% too high. 

[marceline]

 

That genius resigned today.

 

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/blogs/2016/09/22/ohio-trump-campaign-official-resigns-after-racial-comments/90834948/

[Ms. Quartermaine]

Oh geez, white male teacher's assistant (who works with disabled children the entire day, so should be pro-Hillary simply for her policy) just offered Hispanic male custodian a Trump sticker, and he declined. 

 

Assistant: "You're not voting for Hillary, are you?" 
Custodian: "Well, I'm not voting for Trump."

 

The custodian just told me privately, "I'm definitely voting for Hillary." Says when he was younger, group of white guys came up to him told him to back to Mexico (he was born in the United States) and if not, they'll come back and shoot him. He of course never forgot that. Says this thing has always existed but Trump is giving more people an outlet to show it, and that he reminds him of a dictator - what he says, even the way he gestures.

 

The teacher's assistant, who again works with disabled children for the whole day, just said he's been a fan of Trump since The Apprentice. If that's the reason he's voting for him, God help us all.

[JaneAusten]

 Let me guess. That a is white male right? And he can't be educated because he sounds like an idiot. He's voting for someone because he's a reality star?

 

By the way the WSJ/NYT poll said enthusiasm by AA voters was way down and could impact turnout. I read a scathing response to that by @propane_jane who wants to know who these MSM white pollsters are talking to because HRC's campaign has been hitting AA media outlets hard and they have ALL been hammering on how important this year is. And even more people are fired up due to the birther *uckery. I know all the AA I know and work with are  all fired up and voting. I am beginning to believe this idea that the MSM has absolutely no idea what goes on in real America, such as the denial of blatant racism and their fear of saying that "word". Does the news media even get their denials and coddling of Trump just gets people fired up even more?

 

And by the way poll numbers in parts of Texas is causing HRC to send her soldiers there. TIm Kaine is now spending the weekend in Texas. Something I did not realize. Texas has in the last several elections had very very low voter turnout, only second to Louisiana. Lots of dems there(It makes sense based on the demographics) but there has never of course ever been any kind of GOTV campaign there until this election being done by the democrats there.

Edited September 22, 2016 by JaneAusten

[Ms. Quartermaine]

They are opening an office in El Paso too, I think. 

 

Yes, white male. Almost 30. But he has to be educated because I don't think you can let anyone be a teacher's assistant to children with disabilities. Obviously, the teacher he works with has a Bachelor's and is going for a Master's, but you'd think he'd have some kind of education too other than a high school diploma. Or maybe not because I believe his mom used to work in the district before she retired, and it's not what you know, but who you know...

[DRW50]

Polling often screws up black voters - one firm, SUSA, used to claim 20-30% were always voting for a Republican in a race. 

 

With that said, I do think turnout will be depressed, even this year, because of voter suppression and because of the media and because a lot of people are just apathetic about Hillary. 

[Vee]

I think there may be some low turnout in some demographics, but not the black vote.

[marceline]

I think Trump's antics over the last week may goose black turnout a bit more. Coming out in favor of national stop and frisk in a week when we've had two (three? I've lost count) police shootings may make some of these black millennials come to their senses. 

[quartermainefan]

I don't think Trump really even knows what stop and frisk is.   He had to find something to say, and he probably isn't familiar with any other crime policy NYC had.   Saying "stop and frisk" sort of sounds like you at least have theories.    There were some decent policies Giuliani and Bloomberg had that just didn't have an easy to remember label.   I thought more that stop and frisk, what really started to change the city around was Rudy's theories on stopping the minor crimes first because that would lead to a decline in urban decay and major crimes.   The squeegee crackdown, the turnstile jumpers being cracked down on...that stuff worked.   Rudy went nuts when he decided spitters and jaywalkers were next, but the city eventually came to want him gone and it wasn't until 9/11 that he was rehabilitated.

[JaneAusten]

Except Stop and Frisk didn't work. The statistics years after proved that it had nothing to do with the improvements. Most were attributed to improved socioeconomic status and gentrification. This was from a study done by Princeton University after the fact. Plus the law was ruled unconstitutional in a federal court. So I hope he actually pushes it in the debates. It's a law that's against the law.

Edited September 22, 2016 by JaneAusten

[GMac]

I just read that Trump said that he back pedaled on the birther controversy so he "could move on with the campaign".  Ugh.

[DramatistDreamer]

 

 

This wasn't Giuliani's theory.  It was called the Broken Windows policy (aka Quality of Life policy) and ironically was initially proposed and adopted by then Commissioner William J. Bratton (who recently left after being DeBlasio's Commission). It was a policy that would later be disavowed by Bratton. It was always controversial and the two social scientists who came up with the theory, which is both cited and criticized by other social scientists,who cite implicit bias in this theory.

 

With the deaths of Eleanor Bumpers, Patrick Dorismond, Anthony Baez, Amadou Diallo and the sodomization attack on Abner Louima by members of the NYPD, many people of color in NYC felt unsafe and vulnerable, regardless of whether there were broken windows or not.  People underestimate the heinous nature of the Abner Louima incident which ended up costing the city millions when Mr. Louima sued the city and I remember the killing of Amadou Diallo caused protests and marches by people of all ethnicities and colors. People were furious and people who were once supportive of Giuliani became exasperated by his relentless defense of all police actions, in Giuliani's eyes no level of violence by the police was unjustifiable, he thought it was always justifiable. The police state that Giuliani fomented in the city began to be a source of resentment by many white NYers who had always been his biggest supporters.

 

I remember watching an interview in the late 90s/early 2000 with Marisa Tomei on the David Letterman show and she complained that she couldn't take Giuliani anymore because she felt he only cared about the tourists-he didn't care about the actual residents of NYC. It struck me that it was no longer just people of color who were sick of Giuliani.

 

You're right though, Giuliani did hang on in the wake of the 911 tragedy. Call me cynical but to me it seemed as if he used the tragedy as an opportunity to try to rehabilitate his reputation and burnish some type of legacy.  

Even after Bloomberg was elected mayor, Giuliani was still strutting around representing NYC on his way to being 'America's Mayor' (a term coined by Fox NewsChannel, I believe). 

 

I'll never forgive Rudy for how reckless he was in presenting an example to first responders. He also lied about the air quality, announcing that the toxic air was safe just weeks after September 11th.  

I never believed him and I stayed away from that entire area for at least a year. Too bad many residents and first responders believed him and got sick, many first respondents died as a result (and are still dying). Disco Diva Donna Summer's family cites her moving back Lower Manhattan too soon after as the reason for her lung cancer and subsequent death-they said she was never a smoker.

Edited September 23, 2016 by DramatistDreamer

[quartermainefan]

It wasn't Rudy who lied about the air, it was Christie Todd Whitman.   Rudy's office didn't have the wherewithall to declare air safe or not, whereas that was expressly her job.  She lied presumably under orders from the Bush adminstration, I guess I can understand why considering what would happen to the entire world economy if NYC and Wall Street was shut down and evacuated. 

I saw and continue to see no downside to moving aggressive squeegee men out of traffic.  They were a menace and contributed to a sense of chaos and urban decline.     The only bias I can see there is a bias against people taking to traffic to intimidate people at red lights and extort money from them.    I have no sympathy for turnstile jumpers either, to be honest.    Every 15 yr old kid athletically hopping on the subway in fine jeans and expensive sneakers isn't hopping the turnstile because they can't afford to pay, they just don't want to.

[DramatistDreamer]

Giuliani was expressly making statements claiming that Lower Manhattan was safe and that you can come down and shop.  That is a fact. I lived in Manhattan during that time, I heard the press conferences in news clips broadcast on NY-1 and evening news.

 

The lie may not have generated from him (by the way, Christine Todd Whitman was pretty useless as head of the EPA, everyone knew she was a joke pick) but he propogated it, doing Press Conferences and Photo Ops of himself walking around without a mask. Many first responders and residents followed his example and spent hours, days in Lower Manhattan, some without using any protective covering. What many people were not noticing was that Giuliani spent a 20 minutes for a Photo-Op then got into his vehicle and was driven away while the First Responders spent 16 hour days digging through rubble in toxic air. 

 

Yes, NYC had been going through a recession that started in early '01 made worse after 9/11, so I'm sure the decision to encourage people to come to Lower Manhattan and shop was a cynical one to raise $$$ for the local economy but Giuliani pushed himself to the forefront explicitly telling people in NYC that it was safe to go down to Lower Manhattan and shop. The guy wouldn't even go away when Bloomberg was elected.

 

Squeegee men were a genuine nuisance but they were mainly an annoyance to commercial drivers who had to make deliveries and were stopped and harrassed for money and suburbanites driving into the City and found them intimidating. The average New Yorker who took the subway or the bus would've had little to no contact with squeegee men.

 

Edited September 23, 2016 by DramatistDreamer

[Roman]

much of this I didn't know. thank you for your information.