The Politics Thread

[ReddFoxx]

If Sanders does not win NH then he has no real path to the nomination. If Biden can get out of IA and NH at least a second place finish in one he can win SC and make it to Super Tuesday to close things out. I don't see an actual floor fight happening. With that said, someone not in the top three could sneak up and win Iowa, which would give them momentum moving forward. If that doesn't happen I have a really hard time not locking things in on Super Tuesday (barring any unforced errors or gaffes on his part).

[Wendy]

Look who will be on 60 Minutes on Sunday, none other than NRA Russian whore, er...asset, Maria Butina!

 

As she is home in Russia, I expect a spectacle of lies that Donnie and his boyfriend, Putin, would be proud of!

 

https://deadline.com/2019/11/maria-butina-60-minutes-interview-russia-1202774967/

[Chris B]

I know many feel it’s down to Biden, Warren and Sanders, but seeing the reaction to her on the ground makes it hard to believe Harris is done. It doesn’t show in the polls, but the reaction to her in Iowa has been so strong you can’t convince me she isn’t making inroads. 
 

This speech tonight was electrifying and probably the best I’ve seen her. She seems to be building momentum. 
 

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[JaneAusten]

This primary season has been disappointing. So many good candidates. She is still my pick.  I know her campaign has been problematic, but I firmly believe a black woman is the only one who can legitimately take on the orange menace.

 

Biden isn't going to win. If he runs as he's run in the primary forget it. While I can feel horrified at what Trump and Guliani have tried to do to Biden, I also resent the media giving him zillions of passes and his stumbles being excused as gaffes. Trump would eat him alive. And after that confrontation at the first debate, the MSM and Bidens wife came after Harris in fact Biden's wife lied about her. 

 

Warren who I think does come across in some ways as Bill Clinton did, relatable and she does have a  gift for explaining as he did, her getting baited into that DNA test shows me she has poor political instincts. 

 

I like Buttigieg but he doesn't have experience and I resent his pandering approach to African American voters.  Yes he's gay and I thought he had a great interview with Maddow when they both shared their feelings and experiences in coming out, but little experience and I don't see how he will win AA voters with his pandering approach and his record in South bend

 

Sanders? I have said all I can say about him. 

[Khan]

 

Out of the rest of the bunch, I would say now that Buttigieg has the best shot at doing just that.  He's not the greatest candidate, but he seems to be one of the more charismatic ones.

 

BTW, @ReddFoxx, thank you (I think, lol) for posting that...interesting photo of "Buff Bernie."

 

 

My guess: left-leaning voters love Harris, but they're leery of voting for another African-American (and especially one that's female) after the abuse the rest of the country subjected the Obamas to for eight years (and counting).  It's really gonna take some time for us to heal from that ugly chapter in our nation's history.

 

 

Good points, @JaneAusten! 

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Edited November 2, 2019 by Khan

[DramatistDreamer]

Not that one shouldn't compete in NH but if a campaign is not flush with cash, how much time and money should be spent on a state that practically borders Vermont and Massachusetts?  Try to compete but don't drain resources there. 

The punditry of this primary alone is enough to make anyone want to holler.  Let's no forget that none of these pollsters and pundits saw Trump coming (as much I detest making reference to this aspect).

[Khan]

 

True dat.  That's why I'm trying very, very, very hard not to read too much into polls anymore.

[ReddFoxx]

Buttigieg could pull off a win in Iowa, but the problem for him is that he has no path forward on Super Tuesday because he has no support among black voters.

 

Harris is the candidate that I believe could also pull off a surprise win in Iowa and be able to push through into Super Tuesday. She's taken an interesting strategy of going to some voters homes to cook them dinner in Iowa and has been practically camped out there and in South Carolina. Strategically focusing on a couple of early states is for the best.

[DramatistDreamer]

 

 

 

From an observation POV, it seems to be a confluence of factors, one of the less talked about factors is that his children have basically taken over the business, so there is not much for Trump the dotard to do.

Besides the tax evasion and the deluded belief that he can somehow derail an already ongoing investigation by the SDNY, NYC residents have been removing the Trump name from just about everything, with the exception of Trump tower. 

Trump Inc. tried to get around the obvious aversion to all things Trump in NYC by rebranding prospective hotels with names like Scion, etc. but the public caught wind of these tactics registered their disgust and the deals fell through. It's undeniable that Trump Inc. has lost business.

Trump campaign manager is trying to spin his retreat to Florida as a natural strategy that is supposed to encompass trying to hold onto Florida in the next election (and let's face it, Florida is a loose canon when it comes to elections) but the truth (which Trump has always been bad at) is much more varied.

[Vee]

 

[JaneAusten]

It disappeared quickly because that tool cannot keep his big fat mouth and everything else shut.

 

I don't care if he's president or not, if the press and media would stop their fixation on him he would implode. He can't stand not being the center of attention.

Edited November 2, 2019 by JaneAusten

[Wendy]

Buttigieg cannot win. As mentioned, he has no support from black voters and, unfair or not, like it or not, the Bible Belt WILL NEVER accept a gay president. And Kamala Harris has most definitely lost steam.

 

I fear Elizabeth Warren is still going too far left, and while the polls still have him doing okay, I think the Ukraine hoopla has stained Biden. I sure AS HELL do NOT want Bernie Sanders.

 

How I wish we had a dynamic candidate pop up.

[marceline]

 

There's no dynamic candidate to be found because the Democratic electorate is really fractured right now. There are people who found Beto dynamic. Others who found Kirsten Gillibrand dynamic. What we need is someone who can build a coalition across constituencies.

[DramatistDreamer]

America can be such a disheartening place to live.

 

[DRW50]

 

There's a tag against Harris that she is basically a cop locking up the poor, especially non-white poor, and laughing about it every step of the way. Gabbard's attack against her that she was laughing about smoking pot while she locked up people for smoking pot, was glib and demeaning (to Harris and to all the people who are arrested for possession and other minor crimes and who are meaningless to conservatives like Gabbard 99.9999% of the time), but it stuck, because that's what a lot of people want to believe. People who see her as a traitor to her race, or as "not really black," or as another Hillary, and so on.

 

There were so many very ugly smears thrown out there against Harris from before she even entered the race and I feel like most never looked past those. 

 

I'm hoping she does break through in Iowa, because I think people might give her a second look if she does. 

 

I saw that Buttigieg is saying he feels it's a two-person race with himself and Warren. I don't agree with that, although I guess I get where he's coming from (I imagine he thinks he will surpass Biden and Warren will surpass Bernie), but that will probably not be a scenario the party would ever want to see. I suppose it depends on whether Biden keeps falling and keeps struggling with money. If it keeps up the party may end up preferring Buttigieg in that spot. 

Edited November 2, 2019 by DRW50