I think it's B&B or Days.

Mainly, because ABC owns their soaps. CBS and NBC don't.

I think when ABC wants out. All three soaps will be canceled at the same time.

I keep reading how many think OLTL is the next soap to go, and while I don't rule that out....

Based on what I see in the industry, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I think B&B is the next soap to be canceled. Yes, I know it does phenomenally world-wide...but CBS couldn't care less about that. CBS has been very aggressive about dumping its soaps lately, and demographically, B&B is the next weakest soap after ATWT.

Anyway...here's my list of the order, and approximate cancellation dates of each show...

1. B&B (cancelled in 2010, ends in 2011)

2. DAYS (cancelled and ends in 2011)

3. AMC (cancelled and ends in 2011)

4. OLTL (cancelled and ends in 2012)**I know many say OLTL will go first, but unless AMC goes back in front of OLTL in women 18-49, I can't see ABC canceling it before AMC, whether Frons wants it that way or not. It's all about advertising $$$, and OLTL will bring in more than AMC as long as it's above it in that demographic.

5. GH and Y&R (cancelled and end in 2013)

What's your prediction?

I get your logic regarding B&B and it"s demos being almost as bad as ATWT; however, something tells me the show will hold on till it ranks 2.0 in households. Y&R and B&B are sister shows and while there is no contract linking the programs, I think most of the industry sees the show as an additional 30 minutes of Y&R. If B&B were to be axed, the show will quickly find a home on cable even if it means some profit sharing deal regarding international earnings. B&B is still too big to fail.

I still can't figure out if AMC or Days will be next to go. ABC has an easy out here and can say the move to LA failed. OLTL is doing better in all key demos and will only get stronger upon the death of World Turns. Day's days are numbered unless Comcast has an interest in maintaining some sort of daytime line up.

I think all of the soaps best bet would be moving them to networks like the CW or MyNetwork.

The Bold and the Beuatiful could definitely be a good fit for the CW.

I think that in 6 months or so we will have a clearer answer to that question. Anything can happen. Days rebounded somewhat over the last year enough to warrant them a renewal. I truly believe the ABC soaps are safe until SoapNet leaves in early 2012. I think that Days, B&B and Y&R are far more vulnerable but we know we have them until at least September 2011. I think the next few months are crucial for all the soaps.

I would place money on Days being the next to go. It's been thisclose to cancellation for the past few years. The ratings are tanking, and there's really no incentive to renew. I agree that the ABC soaps are safe til at least Soapnet's demise. Although they're not the cash cows they once were, I'm guessing they still make money for ABC. Just how safe are Y&R and B&B? Brad Bell has said that B&B's overseas popularity doesn't amount to a hill of beans when it comes to survival.

OLTL and DAYS are the 2 soaps I think are in most immidiate danger. I think ABC will want to eventually cancel OLTL both because of its low ratings and because it´s the only soap taped on the east coast. I can see them wanting to center around its L.A. soaps.

DAYS has already been in big danger for the past couple of years and if the ratings continue to sink, then I don´t see why NBC wants to give the show a second or third chance.

I believe Y&R, B&B, GH and AMC are safe another 5 years minimum. After that who knows. I think Y&R will be the last soap cancelled because of its ratings.

However, I believe B&B is the only soap that can survive being cancelled by its original network. And that is because of its enormous popularity abroad. Italy for instance adore B&B. Bell could go anywhere he wants really and get a new network, doesn´t even have to be an American, and have production stay in Los Angeles.

So my prediction:

1. OLTL - 2012

2. DAYS - 2012

3. AMC - 2016

4. GH - 2020

5. B&B - 2020, but surviving someplace else if parts of core 4 are still on at that time

6. Y&R - 2024

I think OLTL can buy itslef some time by making room in its cast and hiring a handful of ATWT actors who are already in NY and trying to grab some of the ATWT viewers. That's their only hope. Having said that, they seem to be brining on more and more and more teenagers - as if they are just asking to be cancelled.

I think DAYS is next. It was renewed for one year and that was when the show was on an upswing. NBC will dump it. ABC doesn't have an easy out because OLTL comes one in between AMC and GH, and many ABC fans watch all three soaps. If they get pissed at OLTL's cancellation, it could hurt the other shows. I think they are trying their best to keep the show on the air (traslation: slashing OLTL's budget)

I think OLTL can buy itslef some time by making room in its cast and hiring a handful of ATWT actors who are already in NY and trying to grab some of the ATWT viewers. That's their only hope.

It's also a very dangerous way of thinking. Many OLTL fans are likely to revolt if they feel their show is being "invaded" by a sudden onslaught from actors from another, cancelled soap opera. This will be especially true if we start seeing headlines such as:

ROBIN STRASSER OUT, ELIZABETH HUBBARD IN AS OLTL'S DORIAN!

or

MICHAEL PARK AND JAKE SILBERMANN TO PLAY OLTL'S NEW KEVIN AND JOEY

or

TREVOR ST. JOHN OUT, ROGER HOWARTH BACK AS OLTL'S TODD!

(Lord, the carnage that would ensue from that last one....)

Which Soap is Next to Go?

At this point ....all of them!!

Days or AMC

I have a feeling that AMC, GH, and OLTL will all go at the same time. ABC decides to get out of the soap business, and so they just end their soaps in one swoop.

If, however, they cancel one soap before the rest - it's OLTL, obviously. ABC essentially showed what soap they cared about more when they relocated AMC to Los Angeles. And, with OLTL gone - there would be more efficency. There would have to be no ABC execs based in New York to oversee OLTL, nor would Frons have to commute to NY to deal with a soap. He would just have to take a trip down the freeway to get to AMC or GH.

I have a feeling that AMC, GH, and OLTL will all go at the same time. ABC decides to get out of the soap business, and so they just end their soaps in one swoop.

Not gonna happen if ABC wants to hold on to all their daytime hours. You can't just drop 3 shows that have been on the air for over 40 years at the same time. Once the replacements air, it could be a huge disaster and ABC loses lots of money. ABC will pull one soap out a time.... OLTL or AMC will go first, then whichever one dodges cancellation will be second, and GH of course will be the last ABC soap (possibly out of all the soaps) standing.

ABC doesn't have an easy out because OLTL comes one in between AMC and GH, and many ABC fans watch all three soaps. If they get pissed at OLTL's cancellation, it could hurt the other shows. I think they are trying their best to keep the show on the air (traslation: slashing OLTL's budget)

I agree. Since most ABC fans watch all 3, it will most likely hurt their precious GH. They rather keep OLTL than hurt GH. Moving AMC would be bad because its been in that timeslot for too long. Moving it now would be a disaster. ABC is basically stuck with OLTL whether they like it or not. Plus it continues to beat AMC in important demos.