Members juppiter Posted November 3, 2013 Members Share Posted November 3, 2013 The primaries on the Republican side seem to just be a side show. "The party chooses" the candidate. They chose Bush, McCain, and they chose Romney, and they ended up being the nominees even with wingnuts going crazy over it. The media do not control the GOP primaries, but if the establishment chooses Christie, he will have the same inevitable march Romney and McCain had. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members DRW50 Posted November 3, 2013 Members Share Posted November 3, 2013 The establishment has less power in the party than ever. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members juppiter Posted November 3, 2013 Members Share Posted November 3, 2013 (edited) They're evil, they're crazy, but they're not stupid. I read this book that sheds a lot of light on the topic: http://www.amazon.com/The-Party-Decides-Presidential-Nominations/dp/0226112373 Shutting down the government amounts to crumbs they threw at the crazies. They're not gonna piss away a presidential election to make a statement and run Rand Paul to certain defeat. Edited November 3, 2013 by juppiter 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members ThePrinceOfSunspear Posted November 3, 2013 Members Share Posted November 3, 2013 Clinton being a woman will be a net positive in 2016. She's learned her lessons from 2008 and as a die hard Obama supporter I can honestly say that there's not a day that goes by when I don't hear from my friends how excited we all are about nominating the first female president. We've all been impressed by her going to work as Sec of State under President Obama after that vicious primary and given the looniness of the Republican base there's no reason why Dems will not unite behind her. Sure Martin O'Malley give it a go and I'm sure he'll be a fine Presidential candidate in the future but its Hillary's turn. As for Christie DRW50 is absolutely spot on when it comes to him and media. Listening to Joe Scarborough on Morning Joe you'd think that the Republican primary never occurred 1.5 years ago and that the base will never accept Chris Christie. He's going to be forced to say something to satisfy them. And it will hurt him in the general. And if he doesn't say it, the base will unite behind Rand Paul or Ted Cruz. In the Republican Party the number of crazies outweighs the number of moderates/rational Republicans. It will be quite interesting to watch them eviscerate each other while Clinton continues on full steam ahead. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Max Posted November 5, 2013 Members Share Posted November 5, 2013 (edited) I'm too busy right now to respond to the insightful conversation regarding 2016. I will respond later. I just wanted to make my election predictions: VA Governor: McAuliffe wins by 5 points NJ Governor: Christie wins by 25 points NYC Mayor: de Blasio wins by 35 points Since the NJ and NYC contests are so lopsided, the exact margin of victory is almost impossible to predict. Really, Christie could win anywhere in the neighborhood of 20-30 points, and de Blasio could win by a margin of around 30-40. I know that at least one poll showed McAuliffe leading by only 2 points, but that is a clear outlier; nevertheless, the race has tightened a bit in the last 30 days, which is why I would be surprised if he won by 8 points or so. Edited November 5, 2013 by Max 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members DRW50 Posted November 5, 2013 Members Share Posted November 5, 2013 Christie was on video verbally abusing another teacher yesterday. I'd like to think that would lower his winning margin, but then again, some people sacrifice a goat every time he browbeats a teacher, so that may just help him even more. Wow. http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-bitter-end 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Max Posted November 5, 2013 Members Share Posted November 5, 2013 (edited) I wouldn't be surprised if Christie wins by "only" 20 percent tomorrow, but I don't think the confrontation with the teacher will hurt him much (because many people, for whatever reason, find Christie and his bullying to be "refreshing"). If he wins by only 20 (which some liberals might try to spin as a failure), the major reason is simply the fact that NJ is one of the most Democratic states in the country. I still think such a victory would be damn impressive, and something I highly doubt another Republican will ever achieve in NJ during my lifetime. I predicted a 25 point win to "hedge by bets," because it's possible that he could win by 30. Edited November 5, 2013 by Max 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Max Posted November 5, 2013 Members Share Posted November 5, 2013 It appears that the crazies aren't confined to just Cruz supporters: Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/new-yorks-progressive-experiment-tees-up-99334_Page2.html#ixzz2jkV2lNTr The biggest complaint I hear from liberals is that moderate Republicans can't win GOP nominations, but if Joe Lhota isn't a moderate Republican, who is? My goodness, he's not only pro-choice, he also supports gay marriage. He is to the left of other Republicans whom the left has called "moderate," such as Dick Lugar, Jon Huntsman, John McCain, and Chris Christie. (Yes, I know that partisan Democrats no longer think of the latter two men as moderates, but that was what they were called until the moment they became formidable presidential contenders.) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members quartermainefan Posted November 5, 2013 Members Share Posted November 5, 2013 That I think is naive. I know it is crude to say, but America seems to hate women. So many other countries have elected women to lead them but America has not. That alone isn't the whole story because the same country that has resisted electing a female is also the same country that rejects women as leads in movies. Its also the same country that as soon as a woman turns 40 she is sort of invited to go away from the public eye. Clinton is closing in on 70. She can win, but she will have a lot to overcome. Nobody did coverage on what Obama or Mitt Romney wear or how they do their hair, and no one comments on whether or not the pitch of their voice is "shrill" or not. She's got her work cut out for her. Just look at how as soon as Nancy Pelosi got to be Speaker people without knowing her decided they didn't like her. Sarah Palin is an idiot beyond all measure, but people watched to see what she was wearing, whether she looked pretty or not and so on. Most male politicians look like crap on any given day but the media will not point that out. Chris Christie will also have a hard time winning because historically America will not elect an obese president. There hasn't been one in 200 years? ever? I don't think there has even been a nominee, and if that is the match up it will be decided on which cultural bias is deepest entrenched. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members DRW50 Posted November 5, 2013 Members Share Posted November 5, 2013 Christie was never called a moderate that I can remember. He's socially conservative, fiscally conservative, and was seen as being a part in that the Karl Rove empire of the first half of the 00s. If anything he's tried to feign moderation in the last few years. I'm sure Lhota is moderate, but I'm not surprised if moderate Republicans would be the nominee for NYC mayor. I think Christie will win by 20-25. I don't see anyone likely to call that a failure, but we'll see. I also agree that McAuliffe will probably win by 5. That's the one I think the media might spin as a failure if he doesn't win by more, even though, realistically, that might be his ceiling, since Virginia is still a split state. I'd say 7-8 at most. If Obershain (who is also extremely far right but has a ton of financial help and who isn't as outspoken as Cucinelli and EW Jackson) wins AG, the media will spin that as a sign of how tough the GOP is and Obamacare fails, etc. I think he'll win. If he doesn't it will be a narrow loss. May I also say that I never, ever want to hear Ron Paul described as "libertarian" again after he campaign for Cucinelli. Aside from the AG race, the most interesting contest tonight will likely be the primary in AL-1, to replace Jo Bonner. Bradley Byrne is very conservative but also very much of the establishment - big money and business. Dean Young is even more conservative, and firebreathing. In spite of huge money going to Byrne, and all the establishment support. there's a good chance Young will win the primary. This will be another new face for the GOP's future: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/30/alabama-primary-republican-q-a http://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/alabama-primary-tea-party-dean-young-bradley-byrne-99286.html?hp=l2 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members marceline Posted November 5, 2013 Members Share Posted November 5, 2013 There were fat presidents before the electronic age. Taft obviously and Teddy Roosevelt wasn't exactly a svelte man. At this point I think Christie's weight will have little effect. Especially given that so many Americans on the right have confused indulgence with freedom. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members DRW50 Posted November 5, 2013 Members Share Posted November 5, 2013 I think it might have an effect mostly because he's always sneering and pointing and grimacing. There's this certain public image of a "happy" morbidly obese person that gets more play. He is not one of them. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members DRW50 Posted November 5, 2013 Members Share Posted November 5, 2013 Rand Paul is the new Joe Biden, minus the heart and the decency... http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/11/05/amid-plagiarism-flap-rand-paul-camp-cites-staff-error/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Bright Eyes Posted November 5, 2013 Members Share Posted November 5, 2013 This Mayor Rob Ford drama is hilarious. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Max Posted November 6, 2013 Members Share Posted November 6, 2013 (edited) I am disappointed in Rand, who was somebody I once admired. I apologize, but we'll have to agree to disagree about Mr. GOP will "put y'all back in chains" having heart and decency. DRW, the VA AG race will be close, but I think the Democrat will win, simply because the 5% margin of victory I predicted for McAuilffe will have enough of a coattail effect in the AG race. If McAuilffe wins by only a couple of points, then the GOP AG candidate will win. I would be shocked if the establishment candidate defeats the Tea Party candidate in AL-1, but it sometimes happens (e.g., John McCain and Orrin Hatch). Edited November 6, 2013 by Max 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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