The Politics Thread

[ThePrinceOfSunspear]

I see what you're saying but I honestly think that given all the demographic changes over the last 8 years and the number of women that have joined the Senate in the last few cycles American is getting more and more comfortable with female leaders and females in positions of power. I just don't think its going to be THE factor that does her in.

If anything I'm more worried about dynasty fatigue...esp if Jeb Bush decides to run. If its her and Bush it's going to be a very long slog and very tiring on the American psyche in my opinion.

I really don't get the Christie hype. He's not even "moderate". He's just a bully who yelled at some cowardly Dems in NJ and managed to get his way on certain issues such as the unions and education. He's still a social conservative where it matters and to make it worse he's just loud and obnoxious. I absolutely loathe guys like him. He's Mitt Romney but with less money and more mouth....

[juppiter]

Cuccinelli winning by 5,000 votes with 88% of the vote in. Too close to call... terrifying! Hopefully Virginians get all of their oral sex out of the way tonight.

[ThePrinceOfSunspear]

McAuliffe has been declared the winner by the Huffington Post & Politico from what I"ve read/seen!!!

Good bye Cooch!

[DRW50]

AG race still too close to call. One precinct had the Democrat, Mark Herring, with 62 votes, which was a computer error - he actually got 672. I think the Republican will win, but it might be close.

Not surprised VA was close. For all the talk of purple Virginia, it's still conservative in many places, especially in off-year elections.

Tom Coburn's prostate cancer has returned. I may not agree with his views but I hope he will get through it.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/tom-coburn-prostate-cancer-99385.html?hp=l17

After years of resistance and struggle, Illinois has passed a gay marriage bill.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/clout/chi-gay-marriage-illinois-20131105,0,7759837.story

[marceline]

Three past bouts of cancer. Good thing for him that he's always had good health insurance.

[DRW50]

RIP longtime Congressman William Coyne. http://earlyreturns.post-gazette.com/home/early-returns-posts/5868-bill-coyne-1936-2013

[alphanguy74]

Well, last week was kind of hectic, I had to work 3 days at the store doing flowers for the funeral of Congressman Ike Skelton, former chair of the armed services committee. He was in office for 34 years, I never met him, but alot of people around here liked him.

[DRW50]

I heard a little about that. It's a shame he was replaced by a bigot.

[DRW50]

I'll take the first part of this off unless we hear more about it (majority minority voter obstruction in the Virginia AG race).

On this topic, 40,000 voters were thrown off the rolls pre-election.

http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/state-regional/va-removes-k-from-voter-rolls-over-democrats-objections/article_2d111de4-49de-523b-bd9c-5d93b7c0a00e.html

Edited November 9, 2013 by DRW50

[DRW50]

Wow. Is this some type of desperate last minute rules change to make sure the Republican wins? http://www.wtop.com/41/3501230/Provisional-ballot-voters-in-Va-face-new-obstacle

[Max]

There is no excuse for Obama repeatedly lying to the people regarding the fact that they would be able to keep their policies. (And he did "lie" even if he was totally clueless about the possibility of insurance cancellations, since liberals called Bush a "liar" after no WMD were found, despite the fact that intelligence suggested otherwise.) I will give the president a bit of credit for his belated apology; it doesn't help matters, but it is still better than nothing.

My predictions in the NJ race were pretty good (a 25 point Christie win vs. his actual win of 22.5 points), but the rest of my predictions were way off. I knew de Blasio would win big, but not by 49 points!! (He is far to the left of any Democratic mayor in NYC in recent history, so the 35 point victory I predicted would have been absurd enough. It doesn't even make sense how so many New Yorkers can go from voting for Bloomberg to voting for de Blasio in a four year period.)

All the polls were way off in VA, and so was my prediction that McAuliffe would by 5. A 2.5 point win was pathetic, especially given that the Libertarian candidate took more votes away from Cuccinelli. This will not be popular, but I would have voted for Cuccinelli as the lesser of two evils; the chances of him outlawing oral sex would have been zero (because--even disregarding the zero chance that such a law could have passed in the legislature--outlawing oral sex would have crippled his popularity, and in turn, the rest of his agenda). On the other hand, I have a strong feeling that McAuliffe will be a miserable failure as governor: just look at how he failed miserably when he was Chairman of the DNC, when he was one of the Chairmen of Hillary's 2008 Campaign, and when he ran for governor back in 2009. (He would have failed in this race too, had he not run against Cuccinelli.) And let's not even get started over all the sleazy ethical allegations that this man has faced.

Edited November 10, 2013 by Max

[Max]

This is a great analysis, Juppiter.

While Christie's temperment has been a problem for him, he has always done very well in the debates, and has never exploded. This is true not just for this past cakewalk, but also for his first race, in which the odds were against him.

It's certainly true that some of Christie's brashness is just for show, but I am surprised an Obama supporter would ever want to use the phrase "all show and no substance," given that then-Senator Obama epitomized that premise better than anyone.

It's still pretty damn impressive, given that the liberal voters in the state don't agree with him on most of the issues. (And even prior to Sandy, his approval rating was greater than 50%, so there was no guarantee that he would have lost re-election anyway.) Granted, he ran against a total nobody, but so did Hillary in her 2006 Senate re-election. (Her opponent in that race was even more obscure than Rick Lazio). In 2006, Hillary got 67% of the vote, and Christie just got 60% of the vote on Tuesday. How on earth is a Democrat getting 67% of the vote in a deep blue state more impressive than a Republican getting 60% of the vote in a deep blue state (when both have nobodies as opponents)? When they each won their first terms, Hillary defeated another nobody by 12 points (the same day Gore defeated Bush by 25 in NY), while Christie defeated a wealthy incumbent governor by about 3.5 points. The evidence clearly speaks for itself: Christie is the superior politician.

On a final note, you do have a point regarding your frustration with the lack of a serious Christie opponent. Unfortunately, no prominent Democrat had the courage to run against Christie (because they knew they would lose, albeit not by 22.5 points). To make matters worse, the national Democratic party provided Christie's opponent with zero help (perhaps believing that Christie could never get the GOP presidential nomination), a decision they are now coming to regret.

Edited November 10, 2013 by Max

[Wales2004]

I think he was probably an idealist who believed he could make a difference and maybe he still does believe that in some way, but the politcal machinery is bigger and stronger than anyone who thinks he or she can change Washington or any state house. Either you play the game or walk away with your soul intact. Or maybe you find your soul again once you leave office.

[JaneAusten]

I haven't been thrilled with Obama despite voting for him and I blame him for not doing a better job of selling the Affordable Care act to Americans, but I wish people would quit harping on aspects of the rollout that really are irrelevant. He didn't lie. I don't even get how this is comparable to the weapons of mass destruction nonsense, which we know was not true. The law as written allowed people who had policies in place that were effective before the Affordable Care Act was passed, to keep them. The part of all this that is missing and I wish the President spent time selling this, is the plans people are saying they cannot keep are worthless. And if you were allowed to keep something you had that was a plan purchased following the passage of the ACA, the premiums would have likely risen due to the lifetime cap being removed, the pre-existing condition removed and so on. And before you harp on Obama for this, my nephew purchased a plan in 2011 and when he purchased the plan, the policy indicated changes coming in 2014 due to the passing of the ACA that could impact his policy. All insurance providers were required to provide this disclaimer. Are we saying Americans are too dumb to understand this? I think the Affordable Care act is a poor compromise(we should have a single payer system like 99% of the countries in the western world do by the way), but the fact is the people complaining are the same ones who had NO solution and were completely satisfied with status quo where healthcare costs were out of control to the point where people could not afford it. The supposed greatest country in the world where 30% of the population couldn't receive or afford healthcare. I wish the morons complaining about the ACA would n have to choose between going to a doctor and paying for their next meal.

[DRW50]

McCauliffe's main job at the DNC was to get them out of debt. They had huge debt and he cleared that up.

Cuccinelli's moral crusades extended far beyond sodomy. For one thing, he would have pushed hard to ban any protection for gay faculty or gay students at schools and universities in Virginia. This was one of his pet causes.

Sarvis was extremely liberal on some issues. No one ever thought he was just taking votes from Cuccinelli.