The Politics Thread

[JaneAusten]

This is an interesting article on how the Biden administration has been working behind the scenes to ensure that Bolsonaro accepted the results. It's interesting that Austin our defense secretary met with the military leadership in Brazil for much of the same indirectly telling them they would have NO US military support for a coup and apparently their military realized they could not help one without US support. This time US interference worked for the benefit.

Brazil Elections: How Team Biden Pressured Bolsonaro to Accept Election Results (foreignpolicy.com)

Edited October 31, 2022 by JaneAusten

[DramatistDreamer]

Now if they could get things right in Haiti…

[JaneAusten]

I question all the polls now especially with that Simon Rosenburg thread where he talked about the GOP flooding the system with right leaning polls changing the averages.  Especially Nevada where apparently legit polls have Maestro leading in the Latino vote. 

Edited October 31, 2022 by JaneAusten

[JaneAusten]

I wish that would change. Needless to say we know the answer.

[JaneAusten]

Sorry moved to media thread. More on Musk with a comment from Nate Silver(I know)

Edited October 31, 2022 by JaneAusten

[DRW50]

I don't know how much faith to put in those NYT polls, as they were off in 2020, although without Trump on the ballot maybe things will be different. The early vote numbers are more encouraging, although I keep trying to remind myself that I can't  compare to 2018 because early voting didn't become as big until 2020, and the GOP no longer does early voting.

It's not looking good, but the main question is how much the media is going to be able to rig their way into the landslides they are  craving.

[JaneAusten]

I think early voting is a different animal.  Now mail in voting which used to be a GOP mainstay especially in places like Arizona and Florida is no longer GOP heavy. I am cautiously optimistic because I've actually been doing deep canvassing by phone to mainly independent and GOP suburban women. Abortion in the either first or second most important issue despite the media narrative. The "Abortion is no longer an important issue" is a GOP invented narrative sold to the media.

[Vee]

I agree. It's also one most DC journobros approve of because they're bored by the topic.

[DRW50]

I'm glad to hear this. I do trust your opinion. Between my memories of all the women who voted Trump and GOP in 2014/2016/2018/2020 and the latest Cook listings moving even more toward the GOP, it's been hard to have any hope.

[NothinButAttitude]

[I Am A Swede]

Brazil election: Bolsonaro supporters block roads after poll defeat

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[JaneAusten]

The polls are skewed. Even NBC had to admit it because of the flood of GOP polls being fed to the averages. Unfortunately the networks wanted a horseface so if the dems keep the house and win the senate, the media has helped craft another election stolen narrative, with the New York Times as the leader.

Edited November 1, 2022 by JaneAusten

[DRW50]

That's true. I do blame the media for most of where we are - they wanted GOP-friendly landslides and the idea that "gas prices and food on the table and inflation" are the winning message of their Republican heroes. It does make me worry when I read about Nevada's early vote not being good for Democrats, or youth vote in Georgia not being great...

I don't care for Nate Cohn's work so I haven't read the article, but I think he may have pushed back a bit on some of the polling. This has then led to more justification along the lines of "Democrats are spending in formerly safe House races and not releasing polling so the polls are right." This guy does push back on some of those talking points.

 

[JaneAusten]

Nick Riccardi is a hack. I know I use that word a lot but he was all over the crime stuff and completely ignored Denver crime which has skyrocketed in the past couple of years . It's because it doesn't fit the narrative.

 

It's high time the democrats invest in their own media. I am not a fan of having a huge ecosystem, but I have no idea what else. And it's time the democrats get nasty. Lord our democratic party in Illinois is cuthroat. The National dems can learn from these people here. And yeah there are a lot of things I don't like that they do but even with that, I will never vote for a republican in this state.

Edited November 1, 2022 by JaneAusten

[JaneAusten]

Also you should follow Rosenberg. This is a good thread.  And Jon Ralston in Nevada. I trust him.  

I think one question we should ask is will GOPers come out without Trump on the ballot. Not the mouth breathers . They will. Time will tell. You were talking about early voting @drw50, but as I said there is a different between early voting and mail in (that includes dropboxes). In 2020 republicans had the early vote by a large margin. Now more dems did mail in  in 2020 and maybe more dems are electing to early vote versus risking their mail in ballot being rejected. But as Rosenberg says "By voting early you allow  campaigns to target lower propensity voters now, increasing turnout. "

And how many disaffected GOPers are there. I also don't really know about independents. I talk to a lot of women and a some of the independent women were not planning on voting where in talking to suburban GOP women, almost all I spoke to are voting this election.

 

Edited November 2, 2022 by JaneAusten