The Politics Thread

[DramatistDreamer]

Speaking of the U.S. as a cautionary tale, some people quipped that images like this helped May and her party to lose votes/seats.

[DRW50]

 

There was some talk about whether Johnson would have a leadership challenge and for a while the idea of him challenging her or becoming the new PM was doing well in betting. Apparently that isn't going to happen as she is sticking around, and the talk I read was that if she didn't, Home Secretary Amber Rudd would have taken her place, but I have a feeling Johnson will be back in a major role sooner rather than later. 

 

I could see Trump hurting May somewhat but she was doing much better in polls only two months ago and Trump wasn't any more liked then. 

 

I think her biggest problem is that she just isn't likeable or charismatic. Corbyn was - is - seen as a bumbler but is more likeable. It was also a Trump situation in that May and the Conservatives focused constantly on attacking Corbyn and talking about how if he was let into power he'd be a danger, would help terrorists, etc. As happened with Trump here, the constant negative campaigning (and the heavy negative press coverage, which Trump didn't get here) made him seem better compared to what he was supposed to be. 

 

May also ran a campaign on what she was pushing as reality. Corbyn was running on what he sees as reality. His ideas were seen by many as just handing out money, but some parts of them, like the free tuition, were very popular. May, by contrast, did things like bluntly tell a nurse talking about how she hadn't had a wage increase since 2009 that "there is no magic money tree," and she also pushed this plan that was anathema to the Tory voter base:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/21/theresa-may-under-pressure-over-dementia-tax-social-care-shakeup

 

This likely helped to hurt the Tories in England. 

 

They benefited from Scotland's big party (SNP) being obsessed with wanting another independence referendum to break away from England. They just had one a few years ago and lost, and it was very divisive to the point where even many Scottish people didn't want another one this quickly. Their leader also attacked Labour's Scottish leader to try to make sure the votes would stay with the SNP. And the Tory Scottish leader is apparently very well-liked and seen as a very good campaigner, unlike May. As a result, the SNP lost dozens of seats in Scotland and about 12 of those went to the Tories, shoring them up. Considering how Scotland hated the Tories due to Thatcher, it's a real turnaround. 

 

The other thing that hurt the Tories is that the young, who never show up to vote, actually did show up this time around, either because of May's policies or because of Brexit or because they like Corbyn. Either way, it made a difference in a number of seats. 

 

The main change for May is that she isn't going to be able to get the break from the EU that she wanted...she will now have to likely negotiate more and capitulate. She will also have to work with a very socially conservative and economically liberal Irish party, the DUP. 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/09/dup-will-demand-prop-theresa-may/

 

I've heard people say things like a loss is still a loss, ha ha Corbyn and Labour...there are a lot of things about Corbyn that I think are a liability (especially the behavior of some of his supporters), but it can't be underestimated just how much of a gift Labour got with this election, because it helped them stave off a fade into electoral irrelevance and eternal backbiting. And I doubt they would have done as well as they did without Corbyn, at least in this election. 

 

I just wonder if there will be a stampede from Tony Blair and friends to make the party theirs again now that there will probably be another election sooner rather than later. 

[DramatistDreamer]

 

 

Brits aren't Americans- the likeability factor only goes so far.  

 

This is a country that deferred to Thatcher for years, who was described as many things but likeable would not be one of them. I don't think you can paint British voters with the same brushstroke as Americans, especially in this case.

 

The long and short of it is-

May ran a "dreadful campaign" by all accounts, even some of her fellow Conservatives mentioned this.

She was stiff and wooden on the campaign trail and dodged debates, while Corbyn tamped down any of his usual impulses to appear 'too lefty' and presented himself as a stable, approachable, sensible presence.  The word "avuncular" was even used to describe Corbyn, at times.

 

As for Ruud, she may be in line for another position within the Parliament, but as I watched the votes being tabulated and saw that she barely managed to keep her seat, that idea of her challenging May seems like a Tory fever dream.

 

The DUP is likely the only party that would step up to form a coalition government with the Tories. I mean, look what happened to the Liberal Democrats (and Nick Clegg) last time they stepped into the void.

 

Edited June 9, 2017 by DramatistDreamer

[Khan]

 

Reading his tweets, I feel like I'm watching an episode of one of those "Real Housewives" shows on Bravo.

[DRW50]

 

Thatcher wasn't likeable, but she had the Falklands for her second election, the "winter of discontent" after years of Labour rule and years of strikes and power cuts for her first, and the Labour Party constantly tearing itself apart throughout the '80s. 

 

I don't think it's as big an issue for them as it is for us, but it was a big selling point for Tony Blair, and one of the things used as a cudgel against Gordon Brown (he was ridiculed for being too stern, for "forcing" himself to smile). It was one of the things that pushed Nick Clegg to prominence in 2010 as an alternative to Brown and David Cameron. It's one of the reasons the press over there work so hard to make Labour leaders seem like complete fools everyone should jeer.

 

I think that it was May seeming weak, rather than "stable" or "strong (you can't call yourself that when you repeatedly change your mind on major promises), but I'd say likeability was a factor as well.

 

[DramatistDreamer]

The assumption that male and female candidates are judged by the same criteria-- that would be a first. 

 

Blair is probably too busy counting his oil $$$$ to seek an entry back into British politics. So much the better.

 

Also, I would think that both Cameron and Clegg being out on their as*es less than a year of each other would be some proof that for Brits, charisma being regarded as a major decision point in choosing a candidate is conditional upon other factors, they can take it or leave it.  They're not Americans, who are regarded perennially insistant on having a beer with a candidate before they can vote for them.

Edited June 9, 2017 by DramatistDreamer

[marceline]

 

Fox is another (former) world leader who I've been fangurling over. He's been trolling Snatchgrabber hard from the moment "Mexicans are rapists" came out of his mouth. Never in my life did I think I would enjoy seeing the POTUS humiliated. I actually felt kind of sorry for W sometimes. But Donnie? Every world leader could spit in his face and I would cheer.

Edited June 9, 2017 by marceline

[DRW50]

 

I don't think they are, and that was going on with May even before she imploded (with criticism of her for liking to buy nice clothes when no one would have said the same about a man wearing expensive shoes and an expensive suit), although I think if she'd been able to be competent they would have overlooked some of the usual hostility toward a woman who isn't happy and smiley enough.

 

Blair usually likes to pop his head in to seem statesmanlike and also because I think he resents that people who pretty openly dislike him and what he stands for now run Labour, but you're right, he does have other 

 

Apparently the DUP are climate change deniers - I can't see the UK pulling out of Paris, but I do worry a bit...

 

Anyway, this made me laugh:

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/09/lord-buckethead/

Edited June 9, 2017 by DRW50

[DramatistDreamer]

@DRW50 Sorry, I was being sarcastic with that comment about men and women being judged equally in politics. 

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 That has yet to happen in any industrial country's politics that I've ever read.  Sorry if that didn't come through clearly.

 

Also, as for Tony Blair, his election was as much of a reaction to John Major (who himself began on very positive footing) as any aspects of Blair's personality.  He and the Labour party were regarded as a change from the previous party in power, The Tories and there were great hopes when Blair was first elected.  

One could even argue that Blair's presumed youth (he had a young family) was seen as more of an asset than his personality. 

 

I was in England during the end of John Major/Conservative's time and I also returned early in Blair/Labour's term.  There was very much a hope and optimism that Blair would be part of a turnaround for the country that had been mired in scandal.

Edited June 9, 2017 by DramatistDreamer

[DRW50]

 

Oddly enough I've heard some compare the current situation to Major's last years as PM, as he too had battles with Europe and was propped up by an Irish party (Ulster Unionist). I saw someone say it took years for Major to get there, while it's only taken May months. 

 

You might enjoy some Labour ads from around that time:

 

(the first one has a lot of flashing light)

 

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[sivad40]

 Last night CNN interviewed Trump voters in a bar in Ohio and 9 out of 9 thought the Comey Hearing was a good day for Trump. One woman blamed  it all on the media. Yes, these are people on the other side that progressives have to contend with.

 

[DRW50]

 

The problem is a lot of people even outside of that base will likely believe it's all just media nonsense or is good for Trump. The longer this drags on the more people will just be numb to it. This is why having parties that actually care about this country is important, as they will take action even if the public doesn't care. But the one in charge simply does not give a damn.

 

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/08/james-comey-hearing-republicans-239312?lo=ap_e1

[Khan]

 

And I don't blame him.  I'd probably do the same to Bill Maher if I had a Twitter account.  ("House n****r," indeed.)

[dragonflies]

I love it! Seeing orange cheeto humiliated is awesome

[marceline]

 

Even if they don't think it was good for him, I doubt anyone is going to say that. There's a lot of desperation to save face. They will never publicly admit they got scammed.