February 14-18, 2011

[Kylie]

IA, I'm with you. I think right now, it's a bit to close to call. If AMC can beat OLTL at anything, it might be just the saving grace the show needs...for that extra year. It's all going to come down to which one ABC thinks it can get more out of, for that little bit longer. At this point, I honestly don't know. The sentimental AMC fan in me wants it to last one more year, but another part of me, just wants the blood to flow and get it over with.

I guess we'll know soon, if ABCD is cutting a soap this year, that is. *sigh*

[dowwwe]

I'm not really surprised. DAYS tends to not follow the trends of the other soaps. I'm not sure why, purely an observation.

I'm not surprised their numbers are where they are, though. No storyline on DAYS has my attention right now, and the writing has been pretty bad for a while. It almost seems like they had nothing to fall back on after the Parker paternity/aftermath aired.

[Toups]

If you look at the 18-49 and 18-34 numbers for the past year, and look at which soap has the potential to gain viewers, OLTL easily beats AMC. The 'potential viewers' for AMC is just not there anymore and they are constantly below OLTL(save for a few weeks here and there). Add AMC's constant budget problems, I can't image AMC being more profitable than OLTL. Can an argument be made that AMC is more profitable than OLTL? If so, how?

[DRW50]

I still hear the "brand" thing mentioned sometimes.

[Kylie]

But is potential viewers enough to bank on? The idea that a show 'could' and that is has or will are two different things, at least IMO. I'm not making an argument for AMC. I'm almost to the point where I want it out of it's misery, but I just think that if OLTL hasn't picked up those potential viewers in there year that's had over AMC to pick them up...it's hard to say they will.

At this point, both shows are done. It's just a matter of which one gets put to res first. I still don't know that I believe ABC would choose OLTL, even with the better demos. I know people say the brand doesn't matter anymore, but GH is brand, and that's how it's billed. It's not billed as anything else, but the name of ABC Daytime. AMC has that too...not as much, but far more than OLTL. While the crossover with HiC, and Oprah could have been last ditch efforts to save AMC, it could also be a maneuver to put it brand on display. Why not start branding OLTL?

I guess we'll just have to find out.

This is still assuming they are cutting a show this year.

[Toups]

I read that too but I don't understand it. Is AMC out selling in OLTL in merchandise or something? LOL I would think numbers and looking at the potential, outweighs "brand."

[Jonathan]

Unless we have access to the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement for each show, no one can say.

[Toups]

You're absolutely correct. I'm just looking at two factors: AMC's budget problems, and the numbers, to make an assumption.

[DRW50]

I don't know, but then if ABC wants to get rid of OLTL they will find a reason. They might say that AMC had a strong ratings increase a few years ago (under Pratt) and that could happen again.

If it were me I would get rid of GH first of the three unless serious changes are made, because the show is slowly rotting away in demos and total viewers while eating up far more money than OLTL or AMC, but that won't happen.

[TeamEric]

After several months of bad ratings, last October OLTL's ratings bounced up a little to hover around 2.4 million viewers. The holidays/bad weather then inflated up to 2.6million.

2010 Monthly averages:

Jan 2010 2,489,000 708,000 --- 2nd

Feb 2010 2,599,750 772,000 --- 1st

Mar 2010 2,395,266 716,400

Apr 2010 2,326,818 662,800

May 2010 2,375,000 725,250

Jun 2010 2,300,467 665,600

Jul 2010 2,358,524 653,400

Aug 2010 2,273,000 657,250

Sep 2010 2,344,750 675,250

Oct 2010 2,427,250 663,500 --- 4th

Nov 2010 2,380,600 643,250

Dec 2010 2,440,000 623,000 --- 3rd

2011 Monthly averages:

Jan 2011 2,675,053 619,500 ---lowest monthly demo average

Feb 2011 2,625,538 639,667

[Soapsuds]

Oh please....everyone who is everyone has been saying OLTL is under budget and AMC is over budget and that's why the moved to LA. The ratings are where they were before this whole bad winter began. OLTL at 1.7...the rest at 1.8's.....and Y&R going to the low 3's.

Exactly Toups!

[Toups]

I look at the last two big weeks where the 'potential viewers' were watching:

January 31 - February 4, 2011 (big blizzard week)

Women 18-49 Viewers

4. OLTL 692,000 (+78,000/same)

6. AMC 599,000 (+38,000/-135,000)

Women 18-49 Rating

4. OLTL 1.0/6 (+.1/same)

6. AMC 0.9/5 (same/-.2)

December 27-31, 2010 (Holiday week)

Women 18-49 Viewers

4. OLTL 702,000 (+100,000/+31,000)

6. AMC 587,000 (+53,000/-89,000)

Women 18-49 Rating

3. OLTL 1.1/6 (+.2/+.1)

6. AMC 0.9/5 (+.1/-.1)

OLTL has the ability to reach over 700,000 while AMC can't even reach 600,000. And AMC can't even reach 1.0 while OLTL has the ability to get over 1.0

So if you use 'potential viewers' as a factor, OLTL beats AMC.

[EricMontreal22]

To be fair it was a pretty shitty sweeps. I can't help thinking there was something behind the scenes as they were setting up for a fairly good, dramatic sweeps, yet most of the drama has faded away.

[Soapsuds]

I wonder what the ratings will look like during spring break weeks and during the summer.....YIKES!!!!

[TeamEric]

Toups, while AMC's demos been falling to ATWT levels for a year, I think which soap get canceled first has far more to do with the time slot than small ratings percentage differences.

Canadian affiliates wanted to take back OLTL's time slot b/c it wasn't profitable for them. But some major market US affiliates want AMC's time slot back to expand their local programming. I think there's a good chance whatever replacement Talk Show ABC offers for AMC or OLTL slot, not all affiliates will pick it up.

Inserting a Talk Show between AMC and GH is risky as it breaks up the solid soap block. If the show falters too much, it could topple GH's numbers far faster than they are prepared for.

My money leans on AMC as US affiliates count more than Canadian's wishes and it keeps at least two soaps back to back.