CNN has left us without a critical piece of information necessary to establish the validity of its sampling on Proposition 8: precisely where the network exit polled in California. It simply says that "the aggregate sample is accurate" but has not provided they key piece of information necessary to actually prove it.

This matters for a reason. Specifically, in a state where different demographic populations are reasonably-evenly spread throughout a state, which does not also have dramatic divergences in political ideology which depend on where you live within the state, CNN's methodology might permit it to make a truly accurate statement about the percentage of voters in total who voted on a measure state-wide.

That, however, is not an accurate description of the state of California, as anyone who lives here knows.

In California, virtually all of this state's Black folks live in just 9 of the state’s 58 counties:

Alameda County (13.7% Black)

Sacramento County (10.5% Black)

Los Angeles County (9.6% Black)

Contra Costa County (9.5% Black)

San Joaquin County (8.0% Black)

San Francisco County (7.2% Black - although this number has plummeted and will plummet more after redevelopment of the last "Black neighborhood", Hunters' Point)

Riverside County (6.6% Black)

Kern County (6.3% Black)

and

San Diego County (5.5% Black).

The vast majority of the counties in this state have a percentage of Black residents of between 1 and 2% (and several have far have less than 1%).

When you know that about California, you know that CNN's "random selection of precinct" method doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense if what you’re trying to do is actually know what Black voters are doing at the polls.

Frankly, in a state whose political leanings of the state are quite red/conservative except for a few pockets of population (which state unleashed Ronald Reagan on the nation again? Any guesses?), choosing precincts to exit poll "by random selection", and then selecting targets by simply counting either 1 out of 3 or 1 out of 5 – with no attempt to ensure that you are getting an accurate correlate by race -- is a recipe for statistical disaster if what you are trying to do is make a claim about not only how many Black people actually voted, but what those Black voters did, or did not do, on a particular matter.

(In this case, the disaster has in fact occurred and unleashed hateful anti-Black rhetoric from white gay bloggers and others that is going to set the cause of gay people back a long [!@#$%^&*] time in the Black community if it doesn’t get in check.)

Finally, when was the last time you heard of an exit poll that measured voters by mail? In another state and in another election, not including votes by mail might not matter so much. But in California? In this election? It is a huge omission of data. Since an estimated 4,000,000 voters in California are registered as "permanent absentee voters.". It is estimated by the No on 8 Campaign that 3,000,000 absentee votes were cast in California for Tuesday's election. We are not even going to discuss early voters, since I cannot find a statistic on them right now other than to note that a lot of California voters cast their votes before Election Day. So who knows how those two groups cast their votes on Proposition 8, their racial makeup, or anything else?

I don’t. Neither do you.

...So where are these supposed "LARGE NUMBERS"?

i NEVER SAID "large numbers." i said "large PERCENTAGE."

One could also point to the many books, articles, movies & documentaries on homophobia in the White Community written/directed by white gay men & women.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0112651/

but as you say... many more of those get published and filmed due to white priveledge.

i said "large PERCENTAGE."

In California, virtually all of this state's Black folks live in just 9 of the state’s 58 counties:

Alameda County (13.7% Black)

Sacramento County (10.5% Black)

Los Angeles County (9.6% Black)

Contra Costa County (9.5% Black)

San Joaquin County (8.0% Black)

San Francisco County (7.2% Black - although this number has plummeted and will plummet more after redevelopment of the last "Black neighborhood", Hunters' Point)

Riverside County (6.6% Black)

Kern County (6.3% Black)

and

San Diego County (5.5% Black).

The vast majority of the counties in this state have a percentage of Black residents of between 1 and 2% (and several have far have less than 1%).

When you know that about California, you know that CNN's "random selection of precinct" method doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense if what you’re trying to do is actually know what Black voters are doing at the polls.

Utterly Supported Fact #1: There Were So Many More White, Latino and Asian Votes in Favor of Proposition 8 That Blaming Black Folks is Both Bad Math and Racist Scapegoating of the Highest Order

I'm going to end by doing one other thing: showing you the number of votes that non-Black people cast on Election Day in favor of Proposition 8, if I believe CNN's exit polls (which as I noted when I began, is the foundation for each and every anti-Black argument I've read on this site in the past 2 days.) You compare those numbers to the TOTAL maximum number of Black votes -- women AND men -- in this state if I give the racist haters every benefit of the doubt as I have done mathematically above -- of 504,000 votes. And then you make the argument to me that our segment of electorate is more to blame for an outcome in which we contributed -- even under the hateful math, only 4.9% of the votes. Please.

Non-Black Votes in Favor of Proposition 8:

White Men: 51% of 31% of 10,325,615 votes: 1,632,480 Yes

White Women: 47% of 32% of 10,325,615 votes: 1,552,972 Yes

Latino Men: 54% of 8% of 10,325,615 votes: 446,067 Yes

Latino Women: 52% of 11% of 10,325,615 votes: 592,170 Yes

Asian/Native: 51% of 9% of 10,325,615 votes: 473,946 Yes

Total: 4,697,635 (9.3 times the maximum TOTAL number of Black votes in California.)

Now who did all y'all say was at fault, again? Answer - it wasn't us, unless you were contending that even if we went against Proposition 8 in the same proportions as everyone else it would have failed.

And really all the Prop 8 stats say is that Black People are no more homophobic than any other race of people.

This is very correct. And if you look at other states that have passed gay marriage bans (mainly Southern ones) blacks and whites voted almost equally in favor of these measures. It's just that California has more progressive minded white voters, not that there is a huge gap in who holds these views.

well.. back to the topic of Vicky and her nutball behavior. Even if she wanted to rake her former employers over the coles... that's her perogative if she wants to do it. but I want to know how someone could be so totally delusional as to think they would have her back after all that. Kristoff basically said that.

Edited August 29, 201015 yr by alphanguy74

This is very correct. And if you look at other states that have passed gay marriage bans (mainly Southern ones) blacks and whites voted almost equally in favor of these measures. It's just that California has more progressive minded white voters, not that there is a huge gap in who holds these views.

+1.

That also doesn't take into account the almost non existant outreach of the White LBGT "community" to the POC LBGT community or the extreme amounts of money & votes that came from non POC voters.

In California, virtually all of this state's Black folks live in just 9 of the state’s 58 counties:

Alameda County (13.7% Black)

Sacramento County (10.5% Black)

Los Angeles County (9.6% Black)

Contra Costa County (9.5% Black)

San Joaquin County (8.0% Black)

San Francisco County (7.2% Black - although this number has plummeted and will plummet more after redevelopment of the last "Black neighborhood", Hunters' Point)

Riverside County (6.6% Black)

Kern County (6.3% Black)

and

San Diego County (5.5% Black).

The vast majority of the counties in this state have a percentage of Black residents of between 1 and 2% (and several have far have less than 1%).

When you know that about California, you know that CNN's "random selection of precinct" method doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense if what you’re trying to do is actually know what Black voters are doing at the polls.

Utterly Supported Fact #1: There Were So Many More White, Latino and Asian Votes in Favor of Proposition 8 That Blaming Black Folks is Both Bad Math and Racist Scapegoating of the Highest Order

I'm going to end by doing one other thing: showing you the number of votes that non-Black people cast on Election Day in favor of Proposition 8, if I believe CNN's exit polls (which as I noted when I began, is the foundation for each and every anti-Black argument I've read on this site in the past 2 days.) You compare those numbers to the TOTAL maximum number of Black votes -- women AND men -- in this state if I give the racist haters every benefit of the doubt as I have done mathematically above -- of 504,000 votes. And then you make the argument to me that our segment of electorate is more to blame for an outcome in which we contributed -- even under the hateful math, only 4.9% of the votes. Please.

Non-Black Votes in Favor of Proposition 8:

White Men: 51% of 31% of 10,325,615 votes: 1,632,480 Yes

White Women: 47% of 32% of 10,325,615 votes: 1,552,972 Yes

Latino Men: 54% of 8% of 10,325,615 votes: 446,067 Yes

Latino Women: 52% of 11% of 10,325,615 votes: 592,170 Yes

Asian/Native: 51% of 9% of 10,325,615 votes: 473,946 Yes

Total: 4,697,635 (9.3 times the maximum TOTAL number of Black votes in California.)

Now who did all y'all say was at fault, again? Answer - it wasn't us, unless you were contending that even if we went against Proposition 8 in the same proportions as everyone else it would have failed.

i don't recall ANYONE saying blacks were at fault.

the point is that a large percentage of blacks was against prop 8. NO ONE is saying that other groups didn't also vote against it. it's just that you continue to deny that blacks were against it in large numbers.

why you can't admit that is beyond me. no single group has a lock on racism or homophobia, and no group is entirely clean.

well.. back to the topic of Vicky and her nutball behavior. Even if she wanted to rake her former employers over the coles... that's her perogative if she wants to do it. but I want to know how someone could be so totally delusional as to think they would have her back after all that. Kristoff basically said that.

and you heard how VR ran over kristoff when he made that point.

the woman just cannot be reasoned with. it's all about her, 24/7. and does anyone really think victoria rowell could function as part of a writing staff???

i mean, really.

the point is that a large percentage of blacks was against prop 8.

WHAT "large percentage"?

You made an assertion.

Support it with facts.

it's just that you continue to deny that blacks were against it in large numbers.

Because they weren't.

And if you take into account that if this mythical "large black percentage" that you've asserted was completely eliminated from Prop 8 that the measure still would've passed by quite a few votes means that the "demo percentage" would be even HIGHER for White Voters.

Edited August 29, 201015 yr by DeeeDee

Of course she couldn't function as part of a writing staff. She's acting like the damn show belongs to HER. She was ONE of over 2 dozen contract players. imagine if everyone made thos kind of demands. not a single episode would get on the air.

WHAT "large percentage"?

You made an assertion.

Support it with facts.

Because they weren't.

And if you take into account that if this mythical "large black percentage" that you've asserted was completely eliminated from Prop 8 that the measure still would've passed by quite a few votes means that the "demo percentage" would be even HIGHER for White Voters.

here's your evidence:

http://articles.sfgate.com/2009-01-07/bay-area/17199504_1_same-sex-marriage-ban-black-voters-lesbian-task-force

http://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2009/01/prop-8-and-blaming-the-blacks/6548/

the 70% figure is discarded -- but it's still a VERY high 58%.

here's your evidence:

http://articles.sfgate.com/2009-01-07/bay-area/17199504_1_same-sex-marriage-ban-black-voters-lesbian-task-force

http://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2009/01/prop-8-and-blaming-the-blacks/6548/

the 70% figure is discarded -- but it's still a VERY high 58%.

58% is NOT high.

It's a little over half.

Which again basically says Black People are no more homophobic than any other race of people.

58% is NOT high.

It's a little over half.

Which again basically says Black People are no more homophobic than any other race of people.

oh, please. you've got to be kidding me.

58% IS high. in an election, 58%-42% is called a LANDSLIDE.

and, AGAIN, no one said black people were more homophobic than other races. black people are JUST AS homophobic. for some reason, you refuse to acknowledge that fact.

58% IS high. in an election, 58%-42% is called a LANDSLIDE.

Not when that "landslide" could be overwhelmingly still accomplished even WITHOUT the vaunted "Large Black Percentage"

And from both those articles to put that in context, the study also concludes that 59 percent of Latinos supported prop 8. That isn't one-up-manship--it just means we were about the same more than 80 percent of Republicans and conservatives cast ballots in favor, two-thirds of voters 65 and older backed Prop. 8, compared with 45 percent of those 18 to 29.

and, AGAIN, no one said black people were more homophobic than other races.

Yes they did which is how this whole "discussion" started.

for some reason, you refuse to acknowledge that fact.

No.

I've always said Black People are no more homophobic than any other race of people.

That is anything but a "refusal to acknowledge".

Edited August 29, 201015 yr by DeeeDee

So does Darius know about Ellen Holly and Lillian Hayman?

And really all the Prop 8 stats say is that Black People are no more homophobic than any other race of people.

It doesn't matter. If one's true priority is to fight homophobia, going after a 13% minority, that just happens to be of below average affluence, is impractical. But it is easy.

Edited August 29, 201015 yr by TC