Next soap to fall?

[DRW50]

No soap will ever be canceled for the next five to ten years at least. In fact, 2012 will see a dramatic revival in the fortunes of daytime soaps. We will see glory years the likes of which have not been around since the 60s.

Zombie Irna Phillips says it will be so.

[EricMontreal22]

Brad Bell himself said the international following B&B has plays absolutely ZERO part in whether it'd stick around or not. CBS could care less.

[Africana]

I have a feeling OLTL will definitely be next or it will be AMC. After one of them it's Days then B&B (if the international support has nothing to do with retainability). Y&R and GH will definitely have a showdown even though just by sheer numbers GH should go first, but GH has had a more cultural impact than any other soap so I think they just might be the last to go. Either way, we WILL be hearing about someone else's cancellation soon if these shows don't improve.

[EricMontreal22]

To be honest at this point I think it has little to do with actual quality. It's just a fact of the times...

[Carolyn1980]

Well, we'll see.....

[bellcurve]

But that's for NBC's O&O's, that's not nationally speaking. A Hearst-Owned NBC station(if there is such a thing) in anytown USA may surround DAYS with Maury and Jerry Springer.

[Soapsuds]

Days followed by OLTL then AMC.

[Eric83]

But if it's successful wouldn't more NBC affiliates jump on the bandwagon, and regardless NBC is still trying to do something with its daytime lineup that has been practically cut down to nothing but Days, I think this signifies a renewed interest in daytime. No I don't think NBC has a renewed interest in keeping Days forever, but more just to use its built audience to help out their other shows. It'll be gone in 2-3 years at the most IMO.

[Khan]

Not to sound uncharacteristically like a Pollyanna, but what if -- just what if -- soaps actually rebounded? Like, just when the number of soaps still on the air couldn't get any lower (two, three at most), something miraculous happens, and one of the remaining shows actually takes off again? Some new character or storyline captures everyone's attention -- only, this time, it's for the right reasons. Then, network execs realize there might be life still left in the old gal.

I mean, a boy can still dream, right? ;-P

[YRBB]

It's either going to be Y&R, B&B, DOOL, AMC, OLTL or GH.

[Khan]

What about "Gossip Girl" or "90210"? ;-P

[Eric83]

LOL. Good one.

Even better.

[bellcurve]

I would think it'd be more complicated than that:

a.)Independently owned NBC affiliates want control over what THEY feel is best for their station, what will turn in the most profit, what their locals will enjoy. A lineup consisting of Real Housewives/Days/Access Live/Nate/Ellen might work in a bigger market, but in a smaller one, an NBC affiliate may already have a successful lineup with The Dr's and off-net sitcom reruns in the afternoon.

What works for one station might not work for every station.

b.) Other stations may already have long licenses/commitments to air the aforementioned programs on "The New NBC Daytime." For example, let's say an NBC affiliate in Mobile, Alabama wants to replicate what the network-owned stations are doing. If the ABC station in that market has a locked in deal with Ellen, the FOX station with Access Hollywood LIVE!, The CW station with Real Housewives, and the CBS affiliate with Nate Berkus, then how will that NBC affiliate be allowed to jump on the bandwagon? Said NBC affiliate may not be willing to fork over the licensing fee(or whatever) to replicate such a lineup.

Well, look at what happened after the gameshow wipeout of the 1990's. By around 1995-1998, there was only one gameshow on network television(Price), and two MAJOR shows in syndication(Wheel/Jeopardy). You had the cheesy dating shows(i.e. Bzzzz, the New Love Connection, New Dating/Newlywed Game, etc.), but real games of trivia, prizes, and smarts were far and few or were sacked in less than a year. GSN came along and really became a sort of beacon for that segment of the population that still enjoyed classic and new games.

Then Who Wants to be a Millionaire arrived the summer of 1999 and it forced everyone to really up-the-ante and to find that lightning in a bottle success. Game shows began to pop up in primetime and in syndication and even after GSN sold out to poker, there has still been a huge demand for game shows and game show content.

Daily serials(or multiple installments per week) can rebound...they just need a breather period before someone ups and invests in the genre again in a big way that will make soap fans and those who are not astute, true blue fans get up and pay attention. After all, the pricetag for a soap per week is still way cheaper than your standard Law and Order or CSI. There have been many attempts to revive interest in the genre over the years, but either they sucked really bad or if they were marginally interesting, the daytime press never put its interest or support behind it.

It's gonna have to be something bigger than a Soap Opera Digest cover.

[Khan]

This reminds me of what Justin Deas (ex-Buzz, GL; ex-Keith, SANTA BARBARA; ex-Tom, ATWT) told TV Guide's Michael Logan:

"If the soaps all go off the air, some smart person is going to figure out the right way to do it and bring ’em back. But they’ll have to rethink the form and make it bolder. I mean, we in America still haven’t gotten over our sex hang-ups! The lesbians on our show can’t kiss? What’s wrong with us?"

I'm with you, bellcurve, and I'm with Deas: soaps could rebound, but TPTB have to rethink the stories they tell (if not the way they actually tell them). There's something wrong when it's 2010, some girl on a soap opera is crying WTD?, and Maury Povich isn't even around to read the DNA results.

[Darlotto99]

B&B will be next except it will be merged into the Y&R the pieces are already their for it to happen. from the writers to the crossovers. maybe Y&R is the first soap to expand going a extra half hour.