The Politics Thread

[NothinButAttitude]

I am so glad you posted this before I did, @Vee. I was just coming to post about AOC's live as I watched it. She practically confirmed what I've been saying and suspecting--the "elites" want to run a white male ticket but won't say it. They don't want Kamala either. But it warmed my heart that AOC blasted them.

For years they have been making her out to be the problem child (not saying she hasn't at times), but now she is the one exposing detractors in the party for worrying more about donors than voters. I wish she named names, but we know who she is talking about. Tonight panned out to be one of the best nights during this election run. The next will be Biden accepting his nomination followed by him winning in November. 

A classic case of "Ain't no fun when the rabbit (AOC) has the gun." 

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And Trump fumbling hard made it even better. Now all the detractors in the media and party have to come crawling back with egg on their faces. Joe and Kamala are better than me. I know they'll take the high road but I wouldn't. 

[Vee]

I personally don't think Schumer, Jeffries or Pelosi are looking to run an all-white ticket or run Kamala off it. I suspect Pelosi at least and likely the other two know that would be suicide, even if I don't think any Biden voter likes how this has been handled. But I do think AOC is right that many rich donors or backbenchers are playing fantasy camp and wishcasting about this stuff, hoping they can dump her too.

I don't know who the nominee will be at this point but it is either Joe, Kamala or no one.

Edited July 19, 2024 by Vee

[DRW50]

I don't think these donors are wrong if they believe Biden and Kamala can't win. It's just that, as she said, they waited too long. I could imagine Carville in particular assuming they can airlift in some smooth talker a la Bill Clinton. If they can find one, good luck to them.

I'm not sure how much of a negative effect the speech tonight will have. Some press have pointed out the same old same old quality, but then you also have hacks like Van Jones comparing the convention to 2008 with Obama. And I am not even sure the members of the public who are deciding the election even wanted a new Trump - that was more the Beltway that have spent a decade trying to make him into their special project done right, all grown up. Too many of the public are fine with Trump as he is, especially since they are adept at contorting themselves into just making him what they want him to be.

After all the time Tim Alberta spent gushing over Mitt Romney (and Paul Ryan, but especially Mitt), it's refreshing to see him pointing out just how lackluster Vance and Trump were. 

[Vee]

I do. One or both can, but it is going to require real work after the last month.

Van Jones has been a running online joke since Obama won and cast him out. He's not relevant outside of cable news producers and most people don't care what he thinks. And as for the public, not enough of them are fine with the old Trump - that's why he lost and kept losing since 2020. Without serious extenuating factors he has not had the numbers since '16. He bleeds support.

A lot of the Beltway or the donor class loves to listen to online pundits or idiot contrarians/right wing adjacents who already hate the Dems (Yglesias, Nate Silver, Jeet Heer) because they fear actually looking at the party's positives means they're not in touch with the heartland, but that's not the real world or the reality of the race. Those contrarians, or the legions of Trump fans on Twitter who follow them, are also not possessed of some unique knowledge and should not be engaged with as though they have a legitimate take. This is winnable, but it means ending the party self-own cycle. One way or another.

Edited July 19, 2024 by Vee

[DramatistDreamer]

Real talk: Do people honestly believe that putting up a new ticket in July is a winning strategy?
 

Personally, I don’t trust these people with my vote. I do believe that they want to simultaneously push out Joe Biden and push out Kamala Harris, or the sham of putting her on a ticket that won’t have the time to get together a winning strategy. It’s similar to Hollywood where Black artists are underfunded but are expected to produce wildly successful results or they risk never getting another chance. I believe they are hoping to do this to Harris. Kneecap her, so they can claim she had her chance and fell short but in reality, any new ticket will have a steep time deficit.

AOC, whether people believe she is accurate or not, us seeing things, the way many WOC are currently seeing this: a group of moneyed people are trying to wrest control out of the hands of the base of the party, and just expect everyone to acquiesce and comply. This has the potential to be an unmitigated disaster if it keeps on this path.

[JaneAusten]

 I haven't said much on this - I have tried to tune out, but it's obvious to most I think out there - VOTERS - this is about Kamala.  I have no doubt about it.  On the flip side we have to all acknowledge Joe is old. He himself said it. With that, come limitations.  I do wonder if any of these calls would have happened had lets see, Josh Shapiro, Gavin Newsome, or even Gretchen Whitmar were his VP. My guess is NONE.

If anything, for the first time in years, the democratic candidate has the senior vote overwhelmingly.  My only caveat is I don't think Pelosi is a reactionary nor is Schumer. Is Obama involved. I can't see him being reactionary.  BUT, if Biden decides to step aside, they better damn well support Kamala wholeheartedly.  PERIOD. 

[Khan]

ICAM!!

That's why I posted that link upthread about the 1400 Black women who signed a letter backing Biden/Harris and calling for unity within the Democratic Party.  They know what's up, lol.

Watching Donald Trump is like watching JER's DAYS: after awhile, it gets old.

Edited July 19, 2024 by Khan

[DramatistDreamer]

All that propping and still flopping.

By the way, has anyone heard anything from Mitch McConnell?

[Khan]

No (thank God).

[DramatistDreamer]

Weren’t people saying that Jeffries wanted Biden to drop out?

[MichaelGL]

The Dem party is going to self own itself out of a victory this November.  The party has lost focus and has forgotten exactly who were the voters who handed them victories in 2020 and the midterms. Sigh.

[Vee]

He was supposedly among the several folks who went to him saying the numbers were bad and he should step away. I don't believe that didn't happen. Jeffries is a politician and this is another day of the week, so he can easily be doing both.

Meanwhile:

 

[DRW50]

I do think Carville and others who were so aggressively pushing this likely want Harris out. And that will be extremely ugly optics, but they either don't care or think that it won't be a big deal. 

If the idea is who will beat Trump, I do think there are many valid concerns that neither of Biden or Harris can beat him, but then I'm not sure who in the party actually could at this moment. So if they truly want Biden to go then they need to say they will support Harris.

I don't know what a winning strategy would be. I truly wish Biden or his people had never pushed for a June debate. They weren't prepared and they have not been prepared for the fallout. And it's just gone on and on. Every time Biden has a slight misspeak or pause or struggles to get in a car or on a plane, the images go around and around, and another donor gets on the phone. The response from some in the campaign about bedwetters has less impact when you have senators like the very vulnerable Jon Tester going along, or today, Martin Heinrich (who, being in a race with a mega-rich self-funding Republican, will now generate headlines about New Mexico possibly being in play), joining in. And then you have supporters tweeting out this type of divisive stuff that is catnip for Republicans:

I am not sure we are at a place where even if Biden gives a knockout performance at the DNC it will shift. Even with Trump and the GOP not capitalizing on any of what's happened over the last month, it still feels like Biden is a negative feedback loop he can't break out of, with decreasing donations and more and more members of the party either not supporting him or only supporting him with gritted teeth. 

It didn't have to be this way, but here we are. I don't know what will change it. I used to just think hopefully the polls are wrong (again) and a slow and steady approach from Biden would scrape a narrow win through. The debate really hurt that possibility. I certainly hope I'm wrong. 

I think the fear over the lost 2020 coalition is a big factor in why they are panicking. States like Nevada (not just Arizona or Georgia) will flip by a noticeably large margin if any of the polling is accurate. Hopefully it's not, but I'm not surprised some in the party are confused and scared.

Edited July 19, 2024 by DRW50

[Vee]

I think we can win, but we can't do it without either Biden or Harris, or both. Passing both over means the base is gone for this cycle, and the party will have earned it.

[MichaelGL]

It did seem that debate hurt him somewhat, but for a moment there after the smoke cleared, Biden seemed to gain some traction. Then there was Trump's assassination attempt, Biden's Covid diagnosis, and we're back at where we were at the end of the debate. It's frustrating.