1 minute ago, Vee said:

In any event, once again I feel this furor is coming a bit too early for them to make it last. We've got 8+ months to go.

The one positive is this happened in February instead of October. The problem is it's a self-fulfilling prophecy because any time Biden appears in front of a camera, they can recycle the same script. I just have to hope he can somehow still manage a narrow win. I do worry about the polls as most are negative, but I have to remind myself most polls, or all polls, are trash these days, even those that have results I want to believe. Most people now don't respond to them, and they are often curated for a specific agenda.

2 minutes ago, DRW50 said:

The one positive is this happened in February instead of October. The problem is it's a self-fulfilling prophecy because any time Biden appears in front of a camera, they can recycle the same script. I just have to hope he can somehow still manage a narrow win.

It's a long eight months. People are going to get tired of that script, and a lot more is going to happen out there.

I have always been fairly certain he will win. I still am. I fear the election itself a lot less than I do enduring this entire year of hell as an cycle, the fallout from it and simply taking the risk at all.

Admittedly, I don’t pay much attention to polls and haven’t in years. It’s all too “Inside Beltway” for me. I cannot summon the energy to be this fixated on American politics this early. 

Grain of salt, but:

 

First, a Dem candidate won a Pennsylvania state race:

And now, Dem Thomas Suozzi has flipped NY-03, George Santos' old seat!

 

I think anyone living in the NYC Metro area knew Suozzi was taking that seat. The media wanted to make it look like it was going to be close but Republicans had the one chance in Santos and he made fools out of everybody and anybody who was foolish enough to cast a vote for him. Republicans were not getting another chance this time around. 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/13/mayorkas-house-impeachment-vote

Update Feb. 13, 2024
The US House of Representatives has voted to impeach Alejandro Mayorkas, Joe Biden’s secretary of homeland security, on explicitly political charges related to conditions at the southern border as Republicans attempt to capitalize on the issue in an election year.

The evening roll call proved tight, with speaker Mike Johnson’s threadbare Republican majority and in the face of staunch Democratic opposition to impeaching Mayorkas, the first cabinet secretary facing charges in nearly 150 years.

In the historic rebuke, the House impeached Mayorkas 214-213.

Three Republicans voted against party lines. Mike Gallagher from Wisconsin, Ken Buck from Colorado, and Tom McClintock from California said the Mayorkas impeachment did not meet the bar laid out in the constitution.

----------------------------

I guess they rushed this through before Suozzi could be sworn in.

 

What a waste of time and energy. 

By far, the greatest danger to any and all countries is climate change, but the repubs don't care.

Edited February 14, 20241 yr by janea4old

17 minutes ago, DramatistDreamer said:

I think anyone living in the NYC Metro area knew Suozzi was taking that seat. The media wanted to make it look like it was going to be close but Republicans had the one chance in Santos and he made fools out of everybody and anybody who was foolish enough to cast a vote for him. Republicans were not getting another chance this time around. 

I also wonder how much was down to him running against a black woman. No matter how much the media loves to paint the picture of the multi-racial coalition sure to be the GOP (they love it so much they've been painting this picture for 20-30 years now), many in that area don't seem likely to agree. George Santos won, yes, but that felt like a fluke, and the man running against him was also openly gay, which probably didn't bring most of their votes this way. 

I don't think fitting a demo matters as much in statewide races now but I do think it still has an impact in House races. Some, anyway. 

I noticed that after Pilip was initially vague about supporting Trump, she went all in by the end of her campaign. I wonder if she either assumed she was doing better than she was and dropped the act, or if she panicked because she heard that Dear Leader wasn't happy. And sure enough, he wasted no time trashing her on social media.

I'm not sure if this means anything for Biden in November - when Trump is actually on the ballot, rather than just hovering, it tends to benefit Republicans, and Suozzi was still a strong fit for this district on top of running what seems to be a very strong campaign. Still, it is much better than a loss would have been. Or even a close race, which the media did their best to beg into existence with push polls and blaring headlines (CNN the most blatant - shocking).

I know most can't read Twitter now, but Lis Smith (who is despised by many on the left due to her ties to Pete Buttigieg during his Presidential run, but given that he overperformed, I'd say she probably has some idea about strategy) broke down what benefited Suozzi. 

There was a lot of talk about a poll showing that voters blamed Biden, not Trump, for the immigration bill failing. That doesn't surprise me, for a number of reasons, but even as this was spun as a big defeat and an example of Democrats being counterproductive, I do wonder if it helps give some cover for Democrats in moderate/conservative districts to where they can at least say they have a plan. 

There was also another Palestine protestor who made a big scene at his victory speech and got bodied by security. These little stunts just seem to push this cause further and further to fringe territory, especially in conservative districts. Another reminder of how out of touch many on the left are, aside from always finding a way to get attention.

1 hour ago, DRW50 said:

I'm not sure if this means anything for Biden in November - when Trump is actually on the ballot, rather than just hovering, it tends to benefit Republicans

I'd argue it benefits Democrats, judging by the last few years. And again, it's gonna be a long 8 months.

16 minutes ago, Vee said:

I'd argue it benefits Democrats, judging by the last few years. And again, it's gonna be a long 8 months.

When he's on the ballot, I'd say Republicans do benefit from his coattails, especially in 2020 when they did better than expected in the House and if not for many unique situations in Georgia, would have held the Senate. Whether that will still be true in 2024, I don't know, but I wish we weren't going to be finding out.

20 minutes ago, Vee said:

I'd argue it benefits Democrats, judging by the last few years. And again, it's gonna be a long 8 months.

Agreed.

Polling is, as far as I'm concerned, an anachronism in the age of cell phones. Only a certain core actually participates. Polls have fallen down on the job from 2016 on, and it continues.

And, I'm not all that certain that abortion was not on the ballot at all. Not THE issue this time, true, but Pilip is against it, and Dobbs has been a HUGE boon for Dems since women were stripped of bodily autonomy. Again, tonight the Dem candidate over performed. As has been happening for at least two to three election cycles now...

Some voters interviewed even said they voted for Suozzi because REPUBLICANS killed their own bill. So some ARE paying attention.

It is a long way to November. But the momentum for Dems is a hell of a lot more positive than the media wishes.

Edited February 14, 20241 yr by Wendy

5 hours ago, DRW50 said:

I also wonder how much was down to him running against a black woman. No .

Ordinarily, I might agree but Pilip is a much more complex figure being Ethiopian born and having served in the Israeli army, that still goes a long way in a more conservative leaning area like Nassau County and a portion of Queens, the district which Suozzi reclaimed (remember that he once held office in that district and relinquished it for an ultimately failed bid for governor of New York). One of the main issues, that probably won’t get much attention is that Pilip was very vague on her positions, including on abortion, an issue that does drive engagement among women (and a surprising number of men), even in the suburbs. Pilip, for the most part, bobbed and weaved when it came to debates, likely because her one debate was something of a flop. Yes, the odds were definitely not stacked in her favor as a Black woman running in Nassau County but she was running against someone who voters were already familiar with and she did little to nothing to get voters more acquainted with her, a definite ‘no no’ in a post George Santos election.

It was even more interesting that the level of voter turnout was relatively high, especially since the entire region had a snowstorm that brought more snow than in the previous two years of snowfall. Yes, NY has early voting but turnout on the actual day was higher than expected from what I read. It did make me chuckle too that the Republicans who run the county were under a microscope because some prominent Democrats in the area pretty much publicly declared their hopes that the streets in Democratic leaning areas will be plowed with as much urgency and thoroughness as the Republican leaning areas. The Republican officials pretended to be offended by this and made statements about equitable plowing but allegedly, streets in Republican leaning areas were plowed the earliest.

5 hours ago, DRW50 said:

I noticed that after Pilip was initially vague about supporting Trump, she went all in by the end of her campaign. I wonder if she either assumed she was doing better than she was and dropped the act, or if she panicked because she heard that Dear Leader wasn't happy. And sure enough, he wasted no time trashing her on social media.

Her support of Trump, halting or not, is a wash, imo. Yes, Trump has some support in parts of the NY suburbs that ring NYC but the revocation of S.A.L.T. happened under his administration and people in these same NY suburban areas were among those adversely affected and many are likely still pissed about this. Suozzi deftly reminded voters of this during the campaign, Pilip had no answers for this issue, like much of the other issues she was queried on.

With all this, I expect she’ll probably run again unless the Republicans find someone else but there’s not enough of a window for them to find someone else to run an adequate campaign.

Edited February 14, 20241 yr by DramatistDreamer

@DramatistDreamer Thanks. I appreciate the extra details. I sometimes wonder if vague, evasive answers from Republicans have any impact today - glad to know they still do sometimes. 

The snowstorm part is amusing to me (not the snowstorm itself of course) because I saw a NYT article a few hours ago that blamed the snowstorm for Suozzi having a comfortable win. You could tell they were smarting due to their hype of the "Nassau Republican machine." They made sure to mention that Democrats vote early while Republicans vote on the day. I looked for mention of just why that is so common now - that paper's old friend spending an entire year tearing mail-in voting to the ground among his cult - but there was nothing.

Well, to borrow a word from @DRW50, in contrast to the evasive answers that Pilip tried to give, the Republicans are not at all being evasive about their racism, xenophobia and antisemitism. They are just letting it all hang out there in the open, like soiled undergarments.

https://news.yahoo.com/capitol-hill-republicans-bigoted-attacks-190406864.html

Someone pointed out that ever being caught off guard in 2016, it's obvious that pollsters have been oversampling Republican's ever since.