But he's not winning. His numbers are bad outside his base.

Just now, Vee said:

But he's not winning. His numbers are bad outside his base.

 

I'm calling Bradley Effect. Trump's election showed me that too many people who I thought of as decent were fine with this. They're going to say one thing but when it comes time to vote they will vote for the guy who tells them that they should be a front of the line.

I don't think that happens twice. And I think way too much is going against him now. I don't see what good it does us to doomsay it at this point. It's not going to be a cakewalk but it's very, very important to fight.

27 minutes ago, marceline said:

 

Disagree. He won on racism the first time and he's simply doubling down on a winning strategy.

He has his base but there is only so far they can get him and he can't win with them alone. There were a number of people who didn't turn up in 2016, but turned up in 2018 for the midterm elections. He's gained rural counties with population decline for Republicans, but has caused heavily losses in suburban counties. With that said, he won mostly because Comey wrote that letter and reopened the email issue for a lot of voters.

10 minutes ago, Vee said:

I don't think that happens twice. And I think way too much is going against him now. I don't see what good it does us to doomsay it at this point. It's not going to be a cakewalk but it's very, very important to fight.

 

Sorry. I don't mean to be a downer. I'm just not feeling very good about what I'm seeing play out on the left right now. I feel like no lessons have been learned. Epstein gets arrested so Trump tweets about "the squad." Suddenly the conversation pivots. We get a bipartisan report saying Russia is attacking us so he tweets about Cummings and conversation gets hijacked again. He uses this to pull attention away from subjects that are less favorable to him and that non-MAGA voters would have real issues with. I see a left that still doesn't realize how its own self-righteousness is being weaponized and it scares me. Throw in a facile arrogant press that feels like its job is to offer color commentary instead of facts and I'm just going to keep my fingers crossed that Trump dies right before the election.

 

1 hour ago, marceline said:

 

Disagree. He won on racism the first time and he's simply doubling down on a winning strategy.

 

26 minutes ago, marceline said:

 

Sorry. I don't mean to be a downer. I'm just not feeling very good about what I'm seeing play out on the left right now. I feel like no lessons have been learned. Epstein gets arrested so Trump tweets about "the squad." Suddenly the conversation pivots. We get a bipartisan report saying Russia is attacking us so he tweets about Cummings and conversation gets hijacked again. He uses this to pull attention away from subjects that are less favorable to him and that non-MAGA voters would have real issues with. I see a left that still doesn't realize how its own self-righteousness is being weaponized and it scares me. Throw in a facile arrogant press that feels like its job is to offer color commentary instead of facts and I'm just going to keep my fingers crossed that Trump dies right before the election.

 

+1

For his next trick, he's going to close his eyes and proclaim, "You can't see me," so the press and his base will question, "Where'd he go?"

Eyes are wider open than you think in this sadistic game of peek-a-boo. You all are trying to "logic" a game of feelings. (sic)

Eh, part of it is just typical primary shît. But, and this is important, I've seen a lot of previously dumbass kids get with the program in the last couple weeks when they saw what I was waiting for - another Pelosi/AOC happy photo op - and suddenly realized the House rift was not going to last and Change Democrats Forever. A lot of folks are waking up to the fact that this thing is real, and playing games over purity and longing for Bernie is not gonna cut it. He keeps dropping in the polls. I don't need to love AOC or Omar or whoever else to recognize the good they can do when directed properly, and they're learning to get it together. When this is all over they'll either learn it longtime or flame out like Grayson or McKinney. In the meantime, I have many issues with Omar but she doesn't deserve the vile death threats she's gotten. Trying to turn her into a referendum only reunited the House that more quickly, and made a lot of kids on the left start to get the picture. And meanwhile Chuck Todd keeps getting ratioed, and that keeps the media on their toes.

 

As for Trump, it only looks like strategy. It's largely just reactive and knee-jerk. And what's important is that it doesn't work enough to change his numbers, or change the conversation long-term. We're still on the same issues and dramas everyday, still putting this awful stuff in the face of key voting groups. That's important. That's not drawing on 'logic' either, it's the visceral everyday IMO. It may be annoying to keep dealing with it, but the larger conversations have not changed or put Trump in a more advantageous position.

Edited July 28, 20196 yr by Vee

The mainstream media, for the most point, has truly been derelict in their duty by neglecting to highlight what a slow-moving disaster this administration has been.  Another one bites the dust.

 

.@realDonaldTrump just tweeted that Dan Coats is out as DNI and will nominate Rep John Ratcliffe to replace him. Coats the highly respected top intel official was expected to resign gracefully. Trump tweet prevents that

— Andrea Mitchell (@mitchellreports) July 28, 2019

4 hours ago, marceline said:

Disagree. He won on racism the first time and he's simply doubling down on a winning strategy.

 

Yup.  And even if his strategy isn't successful the second time around -- meaning, he doesn't win re-election -- it still will be more successful than it ever should be, for anyone.  Either way, I'm left unsettled.

4 hours ago, Vee said:

But he's not winning. His numbers are bad outside his base.

 

I don't think Trump's numbers were all that great in 2016 either.  However, he had on his side an opponent whom much of the country -- not to mention, much of the media -- felt lukewarm about at best.

 

Now, Trump might not have another opponent who is as polarizing as Hillary Clinton was and continues to be, but whoever ends up running against him better be prepared for his or her own "Server-gate" scandal, which the media will use to poison the waters against them and help Trump snag re-election.

 

4 hours ago, marceline said:

I'm calling Bradley Effect. Trump's election showed me that too many people who I thought of as decent were fine with this. They're going to say one thing but when it comes time to vote they will vote for the guy who tells them that they should be a front of the line.

 

Yup.

Edited July 28, 20196 yr by Khan

People should really not forget that in 2016 Trump had help from voter disenfranchisement, gerrymandering and Russia.

Speaking of which-

 

Coats is getting ousted for taking steps to prevent foreign attacks on American elections if you want to know how things are going https://t.co/IHSUXTDYXS

— Adam Serwer🍝 (@AdamSerwer) July 28, 2019

4 hours ago, Vee said:

I don't see what good it does us to doomsay it at this point.

 

Except, I think this country has become even more entrenched in its' racism since 2016, if such a thing were possible.  Because Trump's and others' behavior has been normalized by the media, more people today feel bold enough to express their opinions -- no matter how racist, sexist, ageist, anti-LGBTQ or xenophobic those opinions might be.  You can't tell me that won't affect how this country votes in 2020.

 

17 minutes ago, DramatistDreamer said:

People should really not forget that in 2016 Trump had help from voter disenfranchisement, gerrymandering and Russia.

 

And thanks to the GOP, he'll probably have help again from those same factors, and even more.

 

I'll do my part in keeping him out of office for another four years by voting in 2020, but I really don't hold out much hope for the rest of the country.

 

4 hours ago, ReddFoxx said:

With that said, he won mostly because Comey wrote that letter and reopened the email issue for a lot of voters.

 

And I wouldn't put it past the GOP and/or the media to drum up another "crisis" right before this election as well.  Something that will suddenly make voting again for Trump (or sitting out) look like a better alternative.  They've done it before, and they'll do it again.

 

4 hours ago, marceline said:

Sorry. I don't mean to be a downer. I'm just not feeling very good about what I'm seeing play out on the left right now. I feel like no lessons have been learned. Epstein gets arrested so Trump tweets about "the squad." Suddenly the conversation pivots. We get a bipartisan report saying Russia is attacking us so he tweets about Cummings and conversation gets hijacked again. He uses this to pull attention away from subjects that are less favorable to him and that non-MAGA voters would have real issues with. I see a left that still doesn't realize how its own self-righteousness is being weaponized and it scares me. Throw in a facile arrogant press that feels like its job is to offer color commentary instead of facts and I'm just going to keep my fingers crossed that Trump dies right before the election.

 

This.  All this.

 

Speaking (again) of future "Tic Tac Dough" reboot host, Chuck Todd:

 

https://www.cjr.org/public_editor/msnbc-chuck-todd-mueller-testimony.php

Edited July 28, 20196 yr by Khan

9 hours ago, DramatistDreamer said:

People should really not forget that in 2016 Trump had help from voter disenfranchisement, gerrymandering and Russia.

 

 

I agree. Especially now that Russia has been expanded to other countries. People keep overlooking that Russia got far enough to change votes and we don't know if they actually did because of the horrible way we store data like that. Since the US has done nothing to prevent this (and why would they? They want to win), it will happen again. They KNOW he's unpopular and his base doesn't make up a majority. They will need outside help in terms of changing votes, gerrymandering and voter disenfranchisement. Whoever wins the Dem nomination is going to have to win in a blow out in order to have a shot. It's going to be rough going. You're fighting against someone who knows he will likely go to prison for the rest of his life if he doesn't win. I truly believe nothing is off the table.

One thing that could really upend the political trajectory is if a recession comes in the next year, as many economists have been predicting. I don't think enough political pundits are acknowledging this and our political discussions lack this thinking. 

I've a feeling, though, that if and when the recession does come, enough people on the right will spin it so that Trump ends up once more looking like the hero/savior to his base.