I was thinking of the Gallup tracking polls.

I was thinking of the Gallup tracking polls.

I trust Nate Silver.

In 2007, writing under the pseudonym "Poblano", Silver began to publish analyses and predictions related to the 2008 United States presidential election. At first this work appeared on the political blog Daily Kos, but in March 2008 Silver established his own website, FiveThirtyEight.com. By summer of that year, after he revealed his identity to his readers, he began to appear as an electoral and political analyst in national print, online, and cable news media.

The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions—he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states—won Silver further attention and commendation. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by 1%. He also correctly predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races that year.

Of the 37 Senate seats contested in the November 2, 2010 elections, 36 were resolved by November 4, including very close outcomes in several states. Of these 36, the FiveThirtyEight model had correctly predicted the winner in 34.

According to Nate Silver Obama is currently on track to win 308 electoral votes with a 76% chance of winning.

Edited September 21, 201213 yr by quartermainefan

I'm not playing this game with you, Wales. Obama has a miserable foreign policy record and no amount of baiting one-liners can alter the fact. The man who claimed there would be peace in the mideast as a result of his election has anything BUT peace. In fact, we're hated more now than before he took office.

Don't take my word for it... refer to the brutal rape, torture and murder of our ambassador to Libya. Our closest ally in the Middle East in Israel and the President will not meet with its leader. It is inexcusable and that you have no issue with that boggles my mind.

I had actually given you more credit than this before... but I see now that you are nothing more than your average partisan shill. Wow, I'm dissappointed.

Baiting is your thing not mine. Twist it however it suits you.

I acknowledged before how futile it was to "debate" anyone who wants proof from everyone else but offers little to none, picks and chooses to what to respond, and I should add engages in some form of bullying.

When that fails then pull out the partisan tag. Seriously, if you read whatever I've posted and whatever you've posted then you'll, if honest, see that you're the extreme partisan. You might say that Mitt Romney is not your preferred Republican candidate but you're more likely to find truth in whatever he says even if it is bald faced lies while you find ways to blame or insinuate that Barack Obama is responsible for every little problem that has occurred since he took office.

I am no fan of either but I do believe that Barack Obama is more considerate of the population on a whole and he is not going to set out to harm the poor in order to enrich himself and his other wealthy benefactors. I think the wealthy people that support Barack Obama tend to be compassionate towards the less fortunate and don't see them as a plague on society. That's the plus side of the liberals--compassion.

While I am certain that Barack Obama can improve in numerous areas including foreign policy, I took exception to your blaming him for whatever is going on just because of your repeated claim that not meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu apparently once has some great significance. You ignore that Ehud Barak believes this President has been good with Israel because that goes against your point.

http://boards.soapop.../page__st__2460

Again with the one-liners... you guys are offering no substance, just attacks.

Sad.

It seems to me that you are better at offering no substance than others seem to me. Except once when I recall your accepting what someone said while ignoring the overall point, you are generally dismissive of whatever is presented that supports a person's statement but seemingly want others to accept whatever you state with or without substantiation. Of course your word matters to you as it should but that doesn't mean others should discount their beliefs or opinions in favor of yours just because you know you are right. in that respect, they are just as right as you are.

So I'm nothing more than your average partisan shill and you're disappointed because you thought I was better than that. As BK said, "Have it your way."

It's been interesting.

I wish to end our interaction with this:

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/P5vz6iwV38U" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

I just love how some feel they can judge certain,populations and,feel they are somehow disposable just because they need a little extra help. Maybe we should adopt Hitlers principles,and just kill off the millions certain segments of our population feel are such a drain on,our country. How do all those who feel we are somehow failing Israel in this thread feel about that.? Didn't Hitlers propaganda machine capitalize on the fact that anti-Semitism existed at the time? What's the difference here? I mean if those needy folks are so,repulsive and hinder us so so much let's just dispose of them.

There are folks on both sides that take advantage and use and abuse the system. What about the billions of dollars in handouts the government gave to the bankingindustry, money they can't even tell anyone how it's been used. And it hasn't saved anything or altered the behavior of you know,the smart guys. At least the auto industry has tangible improvements.

I also can't stand how extremists on both sides can't discuss reasonably. Them when you try to discuss something rationally, you're then accused of covering up how you really feel, hiding the fact you really love Obama. And so why does loving someone (if thats the case) mean you have to have blind faith. Listen don't tell me about California. Come,to,Illinois another state that is broke. I know how corruptive democrats can be just as well as republicans. We have a lengthy trail of corrupt and unethical democratic leadership in this state, and a history of some, fairly decent moderate effective republican politicians. Men and women who are moderates who have been disenfranchised by the current republican Leadership. Men and women who were good public servants and did well for,our state. I admit to leaning more democratic than republican these days but that's got a,lot to do with the party alienating me because they seem to detest and abhor what I believe in now and have disenfranchised me.

Hillary Rosen was vilified by the CNM for her comments about Ann Romney and was told by said pundits that she should apologize for her words? Where are these same people when Mitt Romney basically blast half of the country?

How many separate arguments do I have going here? Let's see... I initiate and attempt to discuss one at a time, now I've got... let me scroll up and count...

...four to five people I'm supposed to be responding to and maintaining an ongoing dialogue with? Damn, I'm outnumbered and I can't possibly keep up with this.

I understand that if I respectfully withdraw, it will be spun by a few as if I can't defend arguments or won't respond to posts - but I can't possibly debate in any quality way if I've got this much content to argue with this many people to challenge and respond to. I only have about half an hour in the morning to catch up on the news of the day, research, then respond in some reasonably coherent way. I rarely play in the evenings. I just can't swing this... I have no back up and I hate letting some responses go and I don't want to become obsessive with this and spend all hours on it.

Despite our disagreements on issues or candidates, I don't dislike any of you or hold any grudges... and I hope you guys understand that I can't keep up with this. The odds are against me... LOL! I'm not leaving the forum... I've just got to measure my participation or I'll go nuts. I'm already weird, you know...

I just love how some feel they can judge certain,populations and,feel they are somehow disposable just because they need a little extra help. Maybe we should adopt Hitlers principles,and just kill off the millions certain segments of our population feel are such a drain on,our country. How do all those who feel we are somehow failing Israel in this thread feel about that.? Didn't Hitlers propaganda machine capitalize on the fact that anti-Semitism existed at the time? What's the difference here? I mean if those needy folks are so,repulsive and hinder us so so much let's just dispose of them.

What always strikes me about the gleeful contemptuousness in which these right wing conservative Republicans regard less fortunate is the damn hypocrisy that they loudly proclaim themselves Christians and that America is a Christian nation. Where the loving of thy neighbor?

Hilarious! Sarah Silverman | Let My People Vote 2012 - Get Nana A Gun

Voter Harassment, Circa 2012: http://www.nytimes.c...circa-2012.html

We need a pro-voting African American and Hispanic group to train as election observers and start invading the suburbs in major Republican neighborhoods across America. I can just imagine the horror and outrage. LOL!

Edited September 21, 201213 yr by Ann_SS

I trust Nate Silver.

According to Nate Silver Obama is currently on track to win 308 electoral votes with a 76% chance of winning.

So do I. I love Nate Silver. He was the most accurate in 2008 and given he's a statistician, I think his model is the best and most unbiased.

Scary scary.

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/alabama_bill_armistead_birther.php?ref=fpb

Scary scary.

http://tpmmuckraker....her.php?ref=fpb

I've said it before and I will say it again: You gotta love republicans. I love the whole theory. A secret communist baby! Who even knew communism was a genetic condition that was passed on from father to son? Well, I guess republicans knew.

So to cover up the fact that Ann's (Rosemary's) Baby was sired by the communist (devil), her father got a Kenyan socialist to marry her because this would make things 100% better, uhm okay.

Scary scary.

http://tpmmuckraker....her.php?ref=fpb

Oh dear.....

I don't know whether to laugh or cry, so I'll just cry from laughing so hard.

That is too stupid for words. I can't imagine anyone seriously believes that!

Oh dear.....

I don't know whether to laugh or cry, so I'll just cry from laughing so hard.

That is too stupid for words. I can't imagine anyone seriously believes that!

Sadly they do.

On another note, how about that Congress? They seem to work way too hard.