Vee

But none of the dogs and cats stuff helped him. The squirrel (it's so idiotic I even have to type this) has not connected with mainstream media nor will it help him. The FCC whining has not helped him and almost no one has seen his response ad. That's the whole point. We can't automatically assume everything he does is a mainstream success story when both past performance and current events prove it is not. Meanwhile, this is amazing: This is possibly more insane. Silver explains how he's been skewing his forecast:

This is what we're talking about, though. You assume that because these things merely exist that they instantly connect and become hugely relevant, and drown out anything from Dems. That's just not true. Nobody cares about his 90 second ad tacked onto the end of (I believe) a sport event, though; most don't know it happened. They don't care about his FCC whining. They only cared or knew about the SNL appearance. Nobody outside of the MAGA online fever swamp knows or cares about this damn squirrel either, and that is not drowning Harris out because that story is not dominating mainstream news. Nor are many other items of their random weirdness. What is dominating right now is the Selzer poll, ongoing Puerto Rico fallout, new blue momentum and more bad choices by Trump that are driving more women to the polls. People see the Trump you say they don't and more than half are tired of him. At least that's what I'm seeing, and I keep a pretty broad eye. In any event: Here is a very good interview with Bill Clinton from CNN.

This "who won the day" nonsense Politico has been doing for a week or two has been the peak of their savvy Beltway gamemanship obsession and already mocked by even tame media critics, but this is its nadir:

From a very reputable analyst:

I'm not worried about it being like 2016. I believe we're taking it. I have suspected for some time that it will not be close, but now I think it might be even more than that. I think it may end up bigger for the candidate, and I think we have a real shot at a Congressional sweep whereas previously I thought keeping the Senate was slim at best. Or it may be a nailbiter or a shock horror twist for all of us. Who knows. I'm staying vigilant regardless. But I'm ready to take it to 'em. Meanwhile, Wasserman seems fed up:

Incredible:

Meanwhile:

Oh wow.

I for one am all for them spending their final hours of this election cycle on Peanut the squirrel (and Trump fantasizing about an imaginary meeting between Mike Lindell and Al Capone, apparently). I have felt for some time now this election would not be close. Now I am wondering if (though yet not expecting) it may be something more.

The big pollsters have all reacted to Selzer in different ways - often deferential to her and her numbers, admitting they may well be right, but still digging their heels in claiming their models have done nothing wrong, even as Cohn admitted they have regularly skewed the numbers to distrust any large blue/Dem result against Trump. But it def has the pollsters spooked. Case in point:

Toldja. No one in the real world knew or cared what some "George Lopez" rebuttal from a go-nowhere MAGA account on Twitter was.

I've told this story before, but my mom took me to a Maryland Crab Fest or something (maybe VA, maybe DC, I don't know) where Clinton was appearing that year. She tried to get us close enough for me to shake his hand (I was 9 or 10), he was within spitting distance and some lady cut us off! Mom has never forgotten or forgiven. I do vaguely recall her working the phones on Election Night re: Dukakis. But she's still out canvassing, doorknocking and phonebanking today.

Bill Clinton in PA.

And yes, that number is enough in GA apparently. Though I think it'll go up. I remember working the doors in DC/VA summer in the midterms in the 2000s when we took back the Congress. More: https://twitter.com/KamalaHQ/status/1853123560723656769

I don't care what some rando on some other forum has to say about the manosphere. Meanwhile: Another reminder that the PR mess did not go away for Trump, and that for the most part media has not been able to launder it (nor have they really been willing). Nor did Joe's gaffe even remotely do the same damage.

Another:

Thread: I hear Cheney has been pushing this 'your vote is private' message to women on the stump a lot, and I know Julia Roberts of all people also did an ad with this line. But I think Michelle Obama leading with it first really put it over the top and I think it has been much, much bigger with women and wives and mothers in red states than people first realized. And: I think it will sadly get worse for a lot of women in these homes if we do win. Because MAGA will absolutely blame the spouses. They've been bubbling about it ever since Michelle brought it up; Jesse Watters was steaming on Fox at the thought of his wife betraying him, etc. It will be The Crucible.

Curtis would have to try trying, himself. But him aside, GH is absolutely racist.

This is today's, the latest and final. And I don't think she is going to struggle in the Blue Wall - not based on much of that polling and other recent polls that bear out good results.

If you ask me (or I'd say almost any reputable pollwatcher) who they trust more, the answer will always be Selzer over virtually anyone else at this late date. (She was also the first and perhaps only who knew Clinton was in trouble in '16.) But we'll see. Speaking of good polls (better rated than MC, anyway):

HAHN was so bad from Day 1, I am sorry lol. But the actors were intensely committed, especially Tika and Crystal Fox, and that was notable.

It's not about her going there, or even about whether or not Harris wins Iowa; that is irrelevant. It's about the Selzer poll results historically being a bellwether for the entire Midwest, and how much Harris' excellent campaign and yes, skills as a candidate have connected, particularly with (according to the poll) women and especially older women, who remember Roe and before Roe (and after). That's what the Selzer poll often tells us about a campaign/vote trajectory, and that's why it scares the shít out of the GOP. Selzer has grounds because Selzer simply knows her business in her state and does not get caught up in the pollercoaster games of other outlets. Considering Nate Cohn and others have outright admitted to herding and downplaying/dismissing strong blue numbers for fear of underestimating Trump, and considering what happened in '22, it is entirely likely she knows what she is talking about.