PP: Your definition of success & your prediction of it

[Max]

I realize that we already have a thread devoted to the PP venture, but I wanted to start a new thread on just this topic (because I didn't want discussion of this to get lost in the shuffle). I apologize in advance if this upsets any of the moderators.

Because of my already well-known feelings about this venture, I won't blame anybody for believing that I am trying to antagonize them by starting this thread. However, this is not the case, as I am truly curious about others' definitions and predictions of success.

Personally, I will consider the PP online project for AMC or OLTL a success (for that particular soap) if that soap lasts five years or longer. (Assuming, of course, that the production quality of these shows looks professional during their entire run online.) If it just lasts a year or two, it would have to be considered a failure.

I think that each soap's chances of success are between five and ten percent; as new details emerge, I could change this opinion at a later date. (Although these are low chances, they are way better than the zero chance of success AMC and OLTL would have if they were owned by the a$$holes at P&G.) Even though OLTL is in much better shape now, I think that AMC's chances of success are a little bit better (based on a news report written by Errol that stated more of AMC's cast will probably come abord the PP project, as opposed to the fact that much of OLTL's cast has already moved on). But then again, AMC--in contrast to OLTL--will have the disadvantage of being off the air for four months.

Finally, there is a point that Marceline previously mentioned that merits discussion: by what metric will PP use to determine if these shows are successful? I think most of us (myself included) have no idea, but I am hoping that one of the folks employed here--or anybody else with insider knowledge of the industry--can give us their insights on the topic.

P.S. When making predictions of success, it would be most appreciated if vague terms such as "poor," "reasonable," or "good" were not used. Instead, could you please give a specific percent or percent range regarding this venture's chances of succeeding?

[Carolyn1980]

I think it depends on PP's ability to sign a cable network (or broadcast network) to air the shows.

There are some rumblings that PP wants to sell the rights to air them as a package deal, which is hampering potential negotiations. I think if a cable net only wants to air one of the shows, they should let them do that, and then try to sell the other show to another network, if possible.

[Dana]

I think it's way too soon to make any definite predictions. I think we need to know what cast and crew are going to be joining the online version first, and when the shows will definitely debut, as well as what cable stations will be re-showing them.

[marceline]

Until we know more about the PP venture as a whole (other programs, revenue streams: subscription vs. ads, international availability, promotion, etc...) there's no way to guess. It's easy for us to get bogged down in the details about these two soaps but for PP's sake I hope they have other projects in the works.

[Adam]

Until we know A) Who the cast is made up of, B. What cable network, if any, pics the shows up and C) How involved ABC still is in the process (I've heard they may retain veto power over stories) then its rather futile to make predictions at this point.

But, based off of what we know now.... I am skeptical that they even get off the ground period quite frankly.

[EricMontreal22]

I dunno, I still find it riduclous that people doubt they won't even get off the ground. Last? Maybe even last more than three months--I hate to admit, but I could see that being an issue, but I think it's pretty much certain they will happen (despite this current rumour/leak about back burning AMC or whatever because OLTL has a .2 rating higher, even though we don't even know how they'll be selling advertising, if demos will be the same focus, etc).

Adam, I have to ask, where did you hear ABC will still have final say on story? Do they even have the staff to bother doing that? Won't the daytime people be involved with GH and their new shows?

[Adam]

I am sure I read it somewhere in that ridiculous 108 page-long thread... so take it for what its worth. I think its rather silly if that is the case (they do retain veto power), but I suppose if they are still to make money off the deal, it makes sense that they would have some creative involvement from a business standpoint? I am not sure. How does it work with the Bell soaps and CBS? Do they have really any control?

[EricMontreal22]

I believe CBS Daytime does still have to approve the stories, etc, but I could be wrong. I dunno, I guess I can see ABC, since they still own the properties technically, wanting final say if they try to kill off a character or something--maybe--I just can't see them really caring otherwise. Frons seems way too excited to spend his time with The Chew and Revolution, etc.

[Adam]

Yeah, so even if the fine print of the contract says things must be run by the network, they may not have much more involvement than a computer scanning e-mails that is designed to flag pitches like "Rylee dies in horrific plane crash" and things of that nature in which case an alert is sent directly to Brian Frons Blackberry so he can appropriately deal with the situation.

[Eric83]

ABC is not retaining veto power, the poster was leaking something from Daytime Dish.

What was actually posted was PP is going to be influencing OLTL's last 3 months, but ABC could veto stories they don't like. Which seems crazy since it is going off the air, but like I said it was from Daytime Dish.

These shows are no longer apart of ABC Daytime. I think we're safe. Lol.

[quartermainefan]

AMC I would call a success if it just gets off the ground, runs a few months and then fails. AMC will teach PP from its mistakes and failures, and that will enhance the chance of survival for OLTL. OLTL I think is the more realistic one to succeed. It's exciting because if OLTL succeeds think of what it means for all the future shows with marginal ratings facing cancellation. It will open up new venues for niche genre shows that struggle to find network audiences.

[Max]

I'm going to have to agree with Qfan (and reverse my earlier prediction) that OLTL has the higher likelihood of succeeding. This is based solely on the fact that Slezak has signed with PP, whereas Lucci likely will not continue with AMC.

My definition of success--that each show lasts at least five years--still remains the same. And, unfortunately, what also is unchanged is my prediction that each shows' success rate is between five and ten percent. Of course, fans of the Nixon soaps can take solace in the fact that my predictions are far more often wrong than right.

Please note that this is a fluid thread, meaning that one has the right to change his or her predictions of success as more details emerge. (However, I would think that one's definition of success should remain the same.)

[EricMontreal22]

Though, for good or bad, apparently Broderick and (ugh) JHC are continuing with AMC. OLTL, for all we know, is losing both RC and FV as they're still on contract to ABC and RC is set to go to GH. Does this play a part?

[asa]

Until either of the shows starts being hip and innovative in its storylines, it won't matter what medium the shows are on.

I understand the built-in audiences both of these have but behind the camp and so-called conservative attitudes that often pervade the demographic, there's just a lot of over-the-top and in-your-face social aspects of prime time soaps that daytime has long ignored. They've done awful with gay issues, non-white issues, and being contemporary in every aspect of the shows. It comes down to the fact that you can have Erica Kane, you can have Victoria Lord Buchanan (and their many married surnames), you can import these characters that people have emotional and sentimental attachments to but if you're not surrounding them fresh and new characters and doing so without putting them in old daytime archetypes, neither show is going to be worth the investment.

Both shows have been going in circles for nearly 15 years and while plenty of blame can go to Frons and his hand-picked writers, a lot of it needs to go to those who haven't properly gauged the public. To be successful, these shows need to break away from the old formulas and try some new ones. There's a lot within each soap any of us could henpick and be correct (diluting core families, introducing and writing off characters far too quickly or not quickly enough, rehashing soap opera cliches) but it comes down to appealing to the internet audience; a younger audience. Legacy characters can still be vital and interesting in such scenarios but it comes down to crisp writing on basic characters and taking real chances on completely new storylines.

[EricMontreal22]

I think I said it before, but I do think that having a clear gay storyline on either/both soaps (bringing back Kish for a start--even recast) would go a long way. I'm being very stereotypical, but I doubt many of the viewers who apparently complained about Kish would watch online anyway, and it's been proven by youtube how insanely popular even lackluster gay storylines (primarily gay male it seems) are online--already someone is clipping and posting every tiny scene leading up to DAYS gay storyline and it's chalking up TONS of views, and Nuke were a youtube phenomenon. To try to appeal to some of that audience would be a wise move, I think.

(Is it too late to start a bring back Kevin Sheffield campaign? If he did die int he Holidays explosion as urban myth would have you, David could always have svaed him )