Members Max Posted September 4, 2010 Members Share Posted September 4, 2010 Although there is already a politics thread, I'd really like to start a thread specifically devoted to the 2010 midterm elections (if it is alright with the moderators). Given that campaign season really kicks into gear around Labor Day, the time seems right to start this thread; additionally, we had a separate thread that was devoted solely to the 2008 elections (back then). The purpose of this thread is to talk about specific races that will be decided this November. (I will be very interested to read posters' thoughts about elections going on in their home states.) This thread is really not the place for general discussion of political policy or for bashing of Obama or the Republicans. (The main politics thread is the place for that.) So much is at steak in this election: 37 states will be holding gubernatorial contests in November. When it comes to the federal government, control of the U.S. Congress will also be determined this year, as elections will be held for 37 Senate seats and all 435 House seats. The current make-up of the Senate is 59 Democrats (which includes two Independents who caucus with the Democrats) and 41 Republicans; in the House, there are currently 255 Democrats, 178 Republicans, and two vacancies. Thus, in order to attain control of the Senate and House, Republicans need to gain 10 and 40 seats, respectively. While this is not going to be a popular prediction around here, I have now concluded that the Republicans are extremely likely to take control of the House in November. Just a month or two ago I thought that regaining control of the House was a pipe dream; however, Obama and the Democrats are now so unpopular (as a result of the dismal economic "recovery") that the American voters have reached a point where they are highly eager to penalize the party in power. When I watched part of Chris Matthews' show this week, he mentioned that a non-partisan political analyst told him that the GOP could pick up as many as 60 House seats; while I don't expect them to gain that many, they will probably win at least 40 of those 60. Amazingly, it now looks like there is a realistic possibility that the Republicans could become the majority party in the Senate as well. (At the start of the year, not even the most conservative FOX News commentators believed that this could happen.) A big reason why the Senate is up for grabs is because once safe incumbents in extremely liberal states like Washington and Wisconsin are all of a sudden finding themselves vulnerable. Currently, I do not believe that the GOP will regain the majority in the Senate (though, for the first time, I would not be shocked if it did happen), since in order to achieve that goal, they need to win Senate races in 10 out of the following 12 states (all of which are seats held by Democrats): Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Illinois Indiana Nevada North Dakota Pennsylvania Washington Wisconsin In addition, Republicans will have to retain Senate seats in Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio. Races in all five states are competitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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