2010 Midterm Elections Thread

[Max]

CarlD2, your absolutely right about Murkowski being the likely winner in next week's Alaska Senate race. I'm glad that this will happen, because Miller's recent behavior has been absolutely unacceptable.

However, even though Crist is essentially a Republican regardless of party label, pretty much everybody expects that he will caucus with the Democrats if elected. That's why most of his supporters in the Florida Senate race have been Democrats (who either find Meek too far to the left or believe that he has no chance of winning).

[DRW50]

If Murkowski wins (which I guess I shouldn't assume -- I know Alaska is extremely difficult to poll), I wonder how she will be treated in the Senate. She's close to Mitch McConnell, so I think he will look out for her, but DeMint and those who have been elected through his support, along with others like Inhofe, might see her as selfish or as not conservative enough. I can see them causing a fuss over her committee assignments and such.

You've probably already heard about this, but Lee Fisher gave the last of his money to the Ohio state party.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2010/10/lee_fisher_gives_last_of_his_m.html

[Max]

CarlD2, I actually had not heard about Fisher giving the last of his money to the Ohio Democratic Party, so thank you for telling me about it. For whatever reason, this race (which was expected to be close) has really gone in Portman's favor over the past month. Fisher's decision makes sense, not only because the OH Governor's race is neck and neck (although I predict a narrow Kasich victory), but also because the Democrats stand to lose as many as five House seats to the GOP in Ohio. (Each of those five competitive House seats were previously held by Republicans, but were lost to the Democrats during the 2006 and 2008 tital wave elections.)

I'm really interested in your predictions for Tuesday. My final predictions are as follows: the GOP will gain between 40 to 50 seats in the House (which will give them the majority), and will gain 7 to 9 seats in the Senate (which will still keep them in the minority there). I predict that Harry Reid will (narrowly) go down in Nevada, as will Russ Feingold in Wisconsin (by a much larger margin). However, I have reconsidered my prediction about Washington State, and now feel that a Patty Murray victory is likely (given just how liberal that state is). Unfortunately, Barbara Boxer will emerge the winner in her race, despite the fact that she's the Democrat I'd most like to see lose (given how hyper partisan and obnoxious she is). (Honestly, I'm one of the few Republicans I know who always predicted a Boxer victory and never bought into the delusion that Carly Fiorina would defeat her.)

As for governor's races, I expect the GOP to make healthy gains; enough that will result in the majority of the nation's governors being Republican. However, the Democrats are going to win important governorships in California and New York. And, while I expect Florida to be close, I predict that Democrat Alex Sink will be the winner there as well.

[DRW50]

The pundits are predicting 50-70 losses in the House. I am guessing it will be between 35-50. For some reason I have an image of Democrats narrowly maintaining control but then enough Democrats switching or voting for a Republican speaker to change hands. But more likely, Republicans will get enough to win on their own.

I think Democrats will keep Colorado, California, Nevada, West Virginia, Washington, and lose Wisconsin (sadly -- I do not care for what I've read about Ron Johnson), Illinois. I'm not sure about PA. I think Alaska will be decided after weeks and weeks. I'm not as sure as I was about Murkwoski a few days ago because today, "sources" are saying that Miller is done. To me that seems like a fakeout.

Governors -- I think Rick Scott will win in Florida and generate a lot of headaches for everyone over the next few years. I think Republicans will pick up Maine and Democrats will pick up CT and Minnesota, although Minnesota might be very close. Chaffee will win Rhode Island and it won't be very close.

[DRW50]

A PPP poll has come out saying that Miller leads in Alaska. Alaska is so difficult to poll, but with Murkowski and McAdams splitting something of a vote, I wouldn't be surprised.

Here is Sarah Palin and her deep-seated loathing of Lisa M. If Lisa does win I think Sarah is going to blow.

[Max]

As expected, Republicans have taken control of the House.

After losing West Virginia, it looks almost certain that Republicans won't be the majority party in the Senate.

[DRW50]

Well Max -- I apologize for doubting you about the party's chances. I thought they'd take the House but I didn't realize it would be by this much. The Democrats screwed up, again and again, they were weak and scared and all over the place, and the voters have paid them back. I should also thank you for being so fair and intelligent in your comments. I could learn from you.

I just hate that this means we get some of these people in Congress, and that this is basically the face of today's House GOP:

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2010_10/026192.php

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20017307-503544.html

http://motherjones.com/politics/2010/10/vicky-hartzler-most-anti-gay-candidate-america

For all the talk of this being an economy election, something tells me the economy will be the last thing on their minds.

[Max]

CarlD2, I've learned so much from you and have throughly enjoyed our conversations on this thread. Given that 2006 and 2008 were (obviously) not so long ago, I'm fully aware of the frustration and sadness that you're now going through. If there's any consolation, know that so much is likely to change in another two years (which is an eternity in politics). Also, while some of the new Congressmen elected are extreme, most of the Republicans--including leaders John Boehner and Mitch McConnell--are mainstream conservatives.

[GoldenDogs]

Wow, what a great night!

[Max]

GoldenDogs, tonight was indeed wonderful. However, I'm quite saddened that Republicans did not win control of the Senate. (While I never expected the Republicans to win control of the Senate, I'm still disappointed in tonight's result.)

Of course, the far-right holds the responsiblity for these Republican losses. A case in point is that Harry Reid would have lost had Republicans nominated anyone other then Sharron Angle; also, Republicans would have picked up the Senate seat in Delaware had they nominated Mike Castle instead of Christine O'Donnell. Hopefully, the GOP primary voters will learn their lesson and realize they need to nominate a mainsteam candidate for president in 2012, because the number one priorty is to defeat Obama.

[Toups]

Did any of the bad Republicans win (I know Jan Brewer won in Arizona and that's pretty disappointing)? You know those who hate gays and minorities, those who want to restrict their rights? Glad to see some of the "scary" people lose like Sharron Angle and Christine "I'm not a witch" O'Donnell.

Anyway, don't really know what this all means (the Dem Senate win, the GOP House win) just as long as the Dems win the Presidency in 2012.

[DRW50]

Toups I would assume that quite a few of the Republicans who won are very socially conservative.

Here's one:

http://www.pulaskicountydaily.com/news.php?viewStory=2225

[GoldenDogs]

Max, I'm not at all disappointed with tonight's result. The most important chamber of Congress was captured by Republicans and that is all that is needed to block an extreme liberal agenda. However, I don't think it can be said enough that the biggest obstructionists to the liberal agenda in the past two years has been liberals, themselves. Two years of full control and, except for the foolish and unwanted health care bill (which probably was the biggest nail in the Democratic coffin), Democrats have achieved next to nothing and, worse still for their supporters, have done nothing to advance the agendas of their traditional base.

That said, if Republicans don't push forth with positive initiatives to improve things in America, they'll be booted out in two years, too.

[DRW50]

At least some of the incoming Congressman will know how to party:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/16/blake-farenthold-pictures_n_764685.html

[DRW50]

Looks like anti-gay crusading won out in Iowa's Supreme Court races.

http://www.whotv.com/news/who-story-judges-ousted-110210,0,3460696.story