Is Jay Leno Killing NBC?

by Stephen Battaglio October 12, 2009 08:12 AM EST

Jay Leno’s 10 o’clock show was supposed to revolutionize prime time. But sometimes revolutions leave destruction in their paths.

In the first two weeks of the new TV season, the ratings for NBC’s prime-time lineup are down every night of the week except Sunday, when the network airs National League Football games (and not Leno). Trauma and Mercy, NBC’s two new dramas, have struggled to get sampling. Law & Order: SVU has lost a third of its 18–49 audience since moving to Wednesdays at 9 (it aired at 10pm for six seasons). The critically praised cop drama Southland, conceived as a 10pm show, was canceled before it could even start its second season, which was supposed to begin October 23 at 9. The Tonight Show With Conan O'Brien has lost its substantial lead over Late Show With David Letterman among viewers ages 18–49, the category most important to advertisers. And after a strong start in Leno’s first week, ratings for the NBC affiliates’ local newscasts have declined year-to-year since September 21.

The Jay Leno Show has also brought an older audience to the network, which has always insisted that it only cares about reaching the 18–49 demo. The median age of the network’s audience has jumped by 2.7 years to 48.4 this season, due in large part to Leno. Viewers of ABC and CBS have also increased in age, but not nearly as much, and Fox has actually gotten younger.

Overall, Leno has settled in at around 5 to 6 million viewers and a rating of 1.5 to 2.0 among 18-to-49-year-olds. NBC Universal Entertainment chairman Jeff Gaspin tells TV Guide Magazine the show is working from a financial standpoint, as it’s not nearly as expensive to make as a scripted drama. “Leno made smart business sense for us,” he says. “We’re still doing fine in that regard.”

But Gaspin acknowledges that the network is going through a period of adjustment as shows have been displaced by Leno, especially Law & Order: SVU, which dominated its time period in recent years on Tuesdays at 10. It’s now in fourth place, competing with CBS’ potent Criminal Minds. “There was more risk than we expected by moving some of our 10 o’clock shows to earlier time slots,” says Gaspin. “I think many SVU viewers and fans will find it at 9 o’clock and the ratings will slowly increase over the course of the year. It takes a little longer than it used to.” As for the performance of the network’s new shows, “We need to learn a little patience,” he says.

Gaspin believes the 10pm gambit will make sense over the course of the season, especially when CBS and ABC are in repeats and Leno is airing original episodes. (Leno has already topped ABC on some nights.) Ratings success at 10pm has also gotten tougher as more viewers watch shows on their digital video recorders in the hour. Gaspin maintains that if NBC can remain profitable with Leno at 10, the network can focus on developing stronger shows for earlier in the night. “The bigger issue is our 8-to-10 block leading into Leno,” he says.

As for late night, the belief inside NBC is that Letterman’s lead over O’Brien has more to do with the tsunami of publicity surrounding the CBS host’s revelation that he was blackmailed over having sex with staffers. Insiders believe if the details get more sordid, female viewers could eventually abandon Dave.

But NBC has to address the quality of Leno’s show. Network research analysts say there is heavy tune-out during the commercial breaks. Even one of NBC’s own employees, MSNBC’s Morning Joe host Joe Scarborough, excoriated the program. “When they do one of those skits in the middle of the show with the young comedians, they should just put up a neon sign that flashes change your channel now,” he said. “They are horrific.”

Gaspin contends the network is happy overall with Leno’s show, but it’s still a work in progress. “Has everything worked? No. But I think this is the show we wanted, and it’s the show Jay Leno always intended to put on,” he says. “There are things that need to be tweaked. I think they’d be the first to tell you that. Part of the problem is that there was so much hype leading up to this that people expected the opening of the Olympics. That’s not what the show is. It’s a daily talk-variety show, and that’s what they’re producing.”

I hope the ratings continue to go down and that this show is an epic failure.

Thanks for the report. Can it be said the Days is the only show on NBC rising in the ratings? I only watch jay's opening mono log then I delete it. His show is not that great. It's a shame what NBC has come too. Who would have guessed in the early 90's Fox is where it is now!!

NBC is a strategic and commercial disaster. They might have some critically acclaimed shows, but no major hits, and they've been losing money over that for years now. It was desperation and constant failure that led them to create Jay Leno's 10PM talk show, since it would minimize the number of scripted shows they'd have per season.

NBC needs to gets its act together and start creating more shows with wider appeal. If not, they'll continue to be the commercial disaster they've been for the better part of this decade.

Edited October 13, 200916 yr by Y&RWorldTurner

I'm sure it isn't helping--I always had the impression that NBC's gist was its 10 PM shows... And now they've eradicated them.

It's not Jay Leno killing NBC per se, it's Jeff Zucker.

http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/not-glee-ful-fox-show-disinvited-from-macy-thanksgiving-day-parade-by-nbc/

NOT 'GLEE'-FUL! Fox Show Disinvited From Macy Thanksgiving Parade By NBC

By Nikki Finke | Category: Uncategorized | Monday October 12, 2009 @ 4:04pm

Those morons at Jeff Zucker's company have stepped in it yet again. It's bad enough NBC can't get anyone to watch its piss-poor network primetime shows, but now NBC is making sure the American public can't watch other networks' shows as well. (This follows an earlier report that NBC doesn't want the Jay Leno Show to book rival networks' TV stars.) The Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade is known for annually including "cultural touchstones of the moment" in its broadcast, from every American Idol winner since the 2nd season (a Fox show) to the stars of High School Musical (a Disney Channel show). Not a peep out of parade broadcaster NBC. But then, a month ago, the parade producers (who aren't part of NBC) invited this season's hot Fox show Glee castmembers to march and perform during the parade. "They wanted us to have the cast ride a float down the parade route and do a number at the end," a 20th Century TV exec tells me. "Late last week, we confirmed that the Glee cast was able to participate, and we began to talk choreography." But, on Thurday, the studio received a call from the parade producers disinviting the show. "They called all mortified and apologetic. They said that after conversing with NBC they had to withdraw the invitation because NBC was forcing them to. According to the NBC people, the parade was not going to promote a Fox show on their air." The parade producers acknowledged to 20th TV that NBC has never vetoed a single act booked in the past. Funny thing is, Glee airs opposite NBC's Law & Order: Special Victims Unit; that's hardly the same demographic. So what the hell is NBC's problem?

Two weeks into a new season, the talk of television is the Leno effect — and whether it is hazardous to NBC’s health.

It is not just a question of how the new “Jay Leno Show” itself is faring in the ratings, but also what the show’s occupation of the 10 p.m. hour on NBC means to the network as a whole.

As Shari Anne Brill, the senior vice president and director of program analysis for the advertising agency Carat, put it, “It’s really looking like dominoes.”

The dominoes in question are the other parts of NBC’s schedule affected by the network’s decision to relocate its late-night star, Mr. Leno, to prime time. Even though, as NBC executives point out, it is early in this experiment, signs of potential collateral damage have already emerged.

Shows seem to have suffered because they have been displaced to new time periods, like “Law & Order SVU,” which was the leading drama when it played at 10 p.m. on Tuesdays, but now is finishing last after moving to 9 on Wednesdays.

Late newscasts on local stations affiliated with NBC are reporting significant ratings declines, at least partly because of a ratings drop-off in the 10:30 half-hour that precedes them.

And the late-night programs, led by “The Tonight Show,” that have been a perennial source of strength for NBC are no longer the automatic winners against their CBS competition.

Conan O’Brien, the new “Tonight” host, has been swamped recently by the tidal wave of publicity surrounding his CBS rival, David Letterman; but he also has been inheriting much smaller audiences than ever before in “Tonight’s” history.

That means NBC’s second act in late night, Jimmy Fallon, is also getting a much weaker lead-in than Mr. O’Brien did in the same hour a year ago, and as a result is falling behind his CBS competitor, Craig Ferguson, in audience totals.

NBC rightly points out that both its late-night stars remain more popular with younger viewers who are more valuable in selling to advertisers, but in the past NBC’s late-night hours were dominant across the board, not just with narrower audience segments.

And all of this is playing out against a backdrop of reports that General Electric is in talks with Comcast to sell NBC Universal.

Looked at in isolation, Mr. Leno has been doing everything NBC expected of him.

His ratings, after a big first week, have leveled off to about five million viewers a night (though some nights have been much lower) with a 1.5 to 2 rating in the category NBC identifies as all-important, viewers ages 18 to 49, the group many advertisers want to reach.

Though most 10 p.m. shows with those kinds of numbers get canceled, NBC has said from the beginning that it could accept much lower ratings because of the enormous cost savings of Mr. Leno’s show versus expensive hourlong scripted dramas. The network guaranteed advertisers that it would average only a 1.5 rating.

The network’s performance over all has not shown signs of a comeback. While somewhat propped up so far by professional football on Sunday night, NBC has not added any standout new shows. The new drama “Trauma” has already faltered, and a promising new comedy, “Community,” struggled last week when it was moved to a new 8 p.m. time period.

NBC has only two real points of strength now, two hours worth of the reality show “The Biggest Loser” on Tuesday and the comedy “The Office” on Thursday.

NBC has also emphasized that Mr. Leno needs to be judged over the full year because he will be offering many more original weeks of shows than his competitors.

But for some, the judgment is already clear-cut. Producers of shows that have in the past, and could in the future, fill the 10 p.m. hour on several networks are using words like “complete calamity” and “utter disaster” to describe the current state of NBC — though they are using the words while requesting anonymity because of the potential to be in business with NBC in the future.

One producer of several hits lamented the overall absence of a 10 p.m. opportunity for new dramas, saying NBC was formerly the place where the most innovative dramas on television — from “Hill Street Blues” to “E.R.” — found a home.

One recent example was the new police show “Southland,” which was NBC’s best-reviewed drama in years. In the past the network might have waited for it to build an audience based on its quality; but last week NBC announced it was canceling the show.

“Southland” was clearly intended as a 10 p.m. entry. John Wells, the longtime executive producer of “E.R.” who held the same position on “Southland,” issued a statement saying, “I’m disappointed that NBC no longer has time periods available to support that kind of critically acclaimed series that was for so many years a hallmark of their success.”

If producers have reason to be dismayed, owners of NBC’s affiliated stations may be expected to be in open revolt. Among the top 15 cities in the country, ratings for the late news — a prime source of revenue for local television — are down 10 to 30 percent

But so far the owners seem to be holding their tongues — along with their breath. “You don’t make decisions based on a week or two,” said Michael Fiorile, the vice chairman of the Dispatch Broadcasting Group, which owns the NBC affiliate in Indianapolis. “Six months from now we’ll take a look at the trends.”

Media buyers like Ms. Brill are saying the early results are really no surprise. “It’s exactly what I predicted,” Ms. Brill said, adding of the decision to move Mr. Leno to 10, “it was never a ratings decision. It was a money decision.”

It still seems to be. Jeff Gaspin, the chairman of NBC Universal Entertainment, said he was certain of one aspect of the Leno move. “We’ll make money at 10 o’clock this year, I guarantee.”

The rationale for the move of Mr. Leno was simple: the network could not endure his likely move to ABC, where he would have created a new late-night program and undermined the strength of “The “Tonight Show.”

But NBC is justifying the move by citing both the savings Mr. Leno’s show represents over expensive 10 p.m. dramas and the apparent disintegration of the 10 p.m. hour across the board. Mr. Gaspin repeated NBC’s conclusion that hits cannot be established at 10 anymore, largely because the hour is dominated by viewers playing back recorded shows on digital video recorders.

“Look at how ABC is doing at 10 against Jay,” Mr. Gaspin said.

Indeed, ABC’s performance is certainly providing some cover for NBC’s move at 10. Mr. Leno is already faring as well or better than two new ABC dramas, “The Forgotten” and “Eastwick,” and he is not far behind a third, “Castle.” All those shows cost three times as much or more per episode as Mr. Leno’s show.

Mr. Gaspin argued that NBC is not abandoning quality drama and cited recent deals for future shows, including outbidding the other networks for a spy drama from J. J. Abrams (“Lost”) and an American version of the British police classic “Prime Suspect.”

“Maybe we made some wrong choices with shows this season, but we are still investing in programming,” Mr. Gaspin said.

NBC is not engaging in any speculation about trends because it is arguing it is simply too early to read them. “We have to play for the long haul,” Mr. Gaspin said. It also might help not to keep “making proclamations that we’re doing this for cost reasons,” he said.

“Jay is doing fine,” Mr. Gaspin said. “Conan is doing what we expected him to do.” He added, “We’re going to look at our average over the full year.”

Isn't it bc Jay's timeslot that NBC deemed Southland unable to air on their network bc it was too much of an adult show? Stupid network.

Indeed, ABC’s performance is certainly providing some cover for NBC’s move at 10. Mr. Leno is already faring as well or better than two new ABC dramas, “The Forgotten” and “Eastwick,” and he is not far behind a third, “Castle.” All those shows cost three times as much or more per episode as Mr. Leno’s show.

But the more expensive dramas make money beyond their initial broadcast...syndication (if the network has patience), DVD sales, streaming ad revenue, international sales, ancillaries (when there are soundtracks, etc.).

Dramas OBVIOUSLY make money, but they're a long-haul investment.

In the long run, the implication that Leno costs a third is disingenuous, because Leno's episodes are "one-offs"...no repurposing for extra revenue is possible. (This is basically part of the problem that plagues daytime soaps too...although they're at least getting some international sales dollars).

And now what we're seeing is the "law of unintended consequences". Because it means a certain kind of viewer (younger, more educated, more attracted to sophisticated drama) is leaving the network altogether. Network cross-promotion breaks down because the viewers who aren't watching Leno also aren't watching ads for the rest of the lineup, aren't seeing network stars on Leno, etc.

Dominoes. Very good analogy. It doesn't help that Leno isn't bringing on barn-burner guests. It is a sign of how little primetime/NBC I do watch that I haven't personally seen a single promo for Leno. My only NBC night is Thursday, and even then it's really only The Office.

NBC had a lot of arrogance in their "Must see TV" days. They put on bad imitations of their hit sitcoms, shows that were forgettable and had forgettable names (Lea Thompson, Jonathan Silverman). They ran off a lot of good producers and writers by saying they would get all rights to the shows.

Then Zucker stretched NBC's aging hits out while bringing nothing new to the plate.

They are just incompetent, bloated, and much too incestuous. Tim Kring, who has driven Heroes into the ground at warp speed, has friends at NBC, and that justifies him staying around.

Nikki Finke's saying that Steve Burke, Comcast's COO might replace Zucker after the selling.

I hope it's true, Zucker needed to go a long time ago...

But the more expensive dramas make money beyond their initial broadcast...syndication (if the network has patience), DVD sales, streaming ad revenue, international sales, ancillaries (when there are soundtracks, etc.).

Dramas OBVIOUSLY make money, but they're a long-haul investment.

In the long run, the implication that Leno costs a third is disingenuous, because Leno's episodes are "one-offs"...no repurposing for extra revenue is possible. (This is basically part of the problem that plagues daytime soaps too...although they're at least getting some international sales dollars).

Thats not true tho, Not in this case. I can easily see a Jay Leno Show dvd set, i could even see a network like TVLand picking up reruns.

And if Leno is one third of the cost, does almost as well, and sells its ad time then it makes money for nbc and thats what they care about in the end.

Jay Leno's new time slot wreaks havoc for NBC affiliates

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-ct-nbc-affils19-2009oct19,0,557820,full.story

NBC is a horrific network. I probably won't even watch Friday Night Lights when NBC airs its DirecTV episodes next summer.

They got drunk and overdosed on those ridiculous 90s sitcoms about pretty white people "looking for love in the big city" and once all that bullshit left, they became the NOTHING network that they were in the late 70s and early 80s. Worse still, they at least had SOME popular shows then (Diff'rent Strokes, CHiPs, The Facts of Life, Little House). Now, they ain't got nothin!