CBS cancels Guiding Light

[bellcurve]

CBS doesn't see any of B&B's international revenue. So B&B's international appeal is a non-issue for CBS, as it was for NBC when they decided to pull the plug on Dobson/New World Television Owned Santa Barbara.

[MarkH]

Okay, this is an updated "time of death" chart. Let me say this chart REALLY challenged my "they're all going to die" hypothesis. Because, if you believe them, it says three soaps level off (see #6 below), and DO NOT REACH THE CANCELLATION THRESHOLD.

1. It only used the last decade of data

2. It did not impose a linear trajectory. So, any show could have whatever trajectory best fit it. Mostly, it was linear.

3. These models are VERY good. They never explain less than 95% of the variance in decline, and usually close to 99%. THINK ABOUT THAT. A simply model including ONLY THE YEAR explains 99% of the variance in ratings. You're going to have a hard time convincing me, when a model explains 99%, that other factors (like "writing" or "producing") matter. We can agree to disagree on that.

4. For years following the 2008-2009 season (here, denoted as 2008), the values are extrapolations or projections, imposing the same regression model.

5. The cancellation threshold was set at 1.5 HH rating. That remains simplistic and ignores lots of other variables.

6. Because I did not require a linear trajectory, three soaps (B&B, GL, and Y&R) ended up having fairly clear "cubic" functions. This model therefore estimated -- quite to my shock! -- that those three soaps would level off before hitting a 1.5 (and actually might uptick...but I don't believe that). Thus, it is not yet possible to estimate cancellation dates for those three shows! Knock me over with a feather, but I did not expect that cubic function.

[dm.]

Definitely!

MarkH, that chart is so depressing. Reality hurts.

[alphanguy74]

This does not tell me that ATWT is ALSO on the chopping block... this tells me that CBS is pissing off P&G, and they want to pick up ALL their marbles and play the game with someone else. I'm sure they feel their shows are not appreciated, because by all accounts, they DO still make a profit... just not the insane numbers they'd like to see. Considering the HUGE amount of sponsorship P&G provides for CBS, both daytime and primetime... multi million dollar deal.... over the course of decades...I bet P&G feels that CBS owes them the courtesy of not throwing their shows under the bus when we are in the middle of an economic downturn that we ALL KNOW is not going to last forever. CBS doesn't advertize the soaps on primetime... but thye sure as hell advertize their primetime lineup during GL and ATWT!! I'm sure they feel that CBS is just running their shows into the ground, not trying to do anything to keep them viable, just letting them go down the toilet in a constant downward spiral. Think about it. These shwos don't pull the ratings they did... but be assured, they are NOT losing money for CBS.

[MarkH]

All the networks, I suspect, are eager to dispose themselves of a declining genre.

[Cat]

Here is D-Listed's take on the Guiding Light cancellation. Not quite as highbrow as the other press releases:

http://dlisted.com/node/31414

[alphanguy74]

Everyone keeps tlaking about how the soaps are "declining"... is there any hard data on their decline as compared to all of daytime programming? What kind of numbers do the court shows and talk shows pull?

[Y&RWorldTurner]

Court and talk shows cost VERY LITTLE to produce and distribute, soaps don't.

[alphanguy74]

I realize that the court and talk shows cost very little... my question is what kind of numbers do they pull? What are the people's court's numbers today compared to the days of judge Wapner and Doug Lewellyn? I think we need more information on the state of daytime as a whole before we can realsitically assess where soaps stand in relation to it all. In the 70's talk and game shows were just as cheap to produce as today, yet the networks still filled their lineups with soaps. Mike Douglas, Dinah, Merv Griffin, Phil Donahue, and the 10,000$ pyramid pulled good numbers.... and they were ALSO cheap to produce, but the networks didn't fill their ENTIRE daytime lineup with them. If they fill the ENTIRE daytime lineup with NOTHING but talk/game/court..... does the network think the public will NEVER tire of all that? Game shows burnt out in the 90's ( and resurged in the 2000's), tabloid talk is a shadow of it's former self. If nothing else, perhaps the cancellation of GL will prove to the networks that what they replace it with won't pull better numbers, and make them think twice before the axe falls again.

[jfung79]

I am not sad (yet), I am angry at CBS. That is all I can or will say for now. I called CBS to express my disappointment.

[mamasita]

like i said in another thread.. Why it took so long? the real GL was off the air a long time ago. This GL is a walking zombie. I stopped watching in 2007 for good. They ruined the history of the show a long time ago and did not care about old fans.

[jfung79]

I am especially angry about the b.s. statement about their "talking this over with our partners Procter and Gamble and we agreed it was time." Uh, no, you blindsided P&G, and blindsided the show, after a misleading previous month where it seemed like GL could be renewed. Trying to shift the blame? Sorry, I'm not falling for it, CBS.

I am happy that P&G is trying to shop ATWT/GL to another network as a package deal. CBS has lost me as a viewer of any of their non-GL, non-ATWT programming. No more Big Brother or any other CBS show. I do not say these things and not mean them. I have not watched any NBC show for more than one or two episodes after they canceled Another World. I quit BBC America for good after they canceled EastEnders. Both times, I never looked back.

ABC/Frons may suck, but at least they didn't do *this*. It's gonna be all cable and ABC for me now, you can take that to the bank (unless CBS changes its mind or NBC picks up GL -- hey, stranger things have happened).

Bye bye CBS!

As for GL's history being lost long ago, I beg to differ. Phillip, Alex, Alan, Beth, Bill, Lizzie, Buzz, Reva, Billy, Josh, Lillian, Vanessa, Dinah, Shayne, Frank, Blake, Rick -- all these longtime characters were still around with the potential for story to tell about them.

[brimike]

While I'm sure the meaning behind this decision isn't lost on anyone - unless you have a Nielsen box attached to your television (which you might - I have no idea), then this decision really doesn't affect anybody but you, yourself.

Just don't want you to miss Big Brother.

[Y&RWorldTurner]

With GL's demos and overall ratings, I think CBS was more than justified to cancel the show. I know it's sad, but GL brings in relatively low ad revenue for CBS, thus continuing the show is not a wise investment for them any longer.

They kept the show on much longer than the ratings and ad revenue justified, IMO.

[RoseVioletDaisy]

I hope that it's true that P&G is threatening to go elsewhere and take ATWT with them. I just hope that they're serious about keeping them going elsewhere. I already think that CBS made a very big, stupid mistake here but to do so against the wishes of it's biggest advertiser, worth over $300 million a year in ad revenue at a time when other companies like the Big3 are having to cut back on advertising, was monumentally insane especially if it's true that the only alternative they currently have for the timeslot is some lame-ass remake of $25,000 Pyramid.

That may all be true but the what on earth is gonna do better for CBS in that time slot? A cheap, tacky retread game show? A tawdry talk show? A pointless reality show? A bunch of F-list "celebrities" sitting around drinking coffee and prattling about the news? Those things might all be cheaper but they'll also be a lot less watched and will have an audience with no brand loyalty. What really hurts about this is that GL didn't get cancelled last winter when there was nothing redeemable or even watchable about it. It didn't get cancelled in the midst of the truly godawful and downright humiliating clone and time travel stories. But now, when it's finally starting improving and showing true promise for the future, CBS axes it. Morons.