The Politics Thread

[Vee]

I think they have to go back there with the Hitler thing. It's wise to end on a pointed reminder of January 6 IMO. I don't think ending on economic policy is going to move anyone.

Like other analysts (or randos) I trust I am still getting strong 2022 vibes. But you can tell the media badly wants this to be as tight as possible because the always predictable Dana Bash flat-out said Harris is held to a different standard tonight than Trump while they tried to pick apart her (pretty good, IMO) town hall, 'but that's the world she lives in.' Wonder who made it that way, Dana.

Edited October 24, 2024 by Vee

[DRW50]

I saw some Frank Luntz interview going around where he claimed that Harris lost all momentum when she began focusing on Trump rather than herself. He's hugely biased, but this shift is one of the reasons I keep going back to 2016. I am not sure how much choice she entirely has - when she tried to focus on herself, her answers were ignored or picked apart. As long as Trump is running, focus will always go to him. Still, it does make me uneasy that so much focus goes to Trump. He becomes the enemy people know, alongside how idolized he is by half the country. That makes it very difficult for Harris to find a case for voters if they aren't repulsed by Trump.

[Vee]

I think Luntz just badly wants it to be 2016. He needs Trump to find a comeback arc, and a lot of media is eagerly trying to help.

The CNN anchors may have tried to pick it apart, but the voters felt differently:

 

Edited October 24, 2024 by Vee

[Vee]

 

[janea4old]

Naval Academy disinvites historian @ruthbenghiat
 from a history department lecture under pressure from the Heritage Foundation--founders of Project 2025.
Intended lecture was what happens to militaries under authoritarian rule through history

https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/opinion/column/project-2025-naval-academy-ruth-ben-ghiat-heritage-foundation-UQM4A4CHTRH3FGHRO464YY7TJA/

[sivad40]

 

The caravan is coming.

Please register in order to view this content

[janea4old]

 

[DRW50]

The head of the NRSC is coming to campaign for Sam Brown so the early voting numbers must be even better than we realize. This goes along with the line Nate Silver is pushing about Harris' lead shrinking in national polling which given how Trump overperformed in polling in 2016/2020 is leading some to claim he will win the popular vote. I don't believe he will win the popular vote, but based on current trends it seems like he'll be closer than he was the last two times. 

I'm already seeing the usual whining about how Harris is hiding behind a celebrity or is wasting time in Texas instead of being in Wisconsin (even though she just left Wisconsin), but I can see where her campaign may be hoping anything turns the bad situation around. There's also a slim chance it could help with the Senate race, and it's good earned media instead of yet another day where she is grilled over everything she ever said or didn't say while Trump can fart and have NYT, Washington Post, CNN, MSNBC, etc. say how beautiful the smell is.

 

[Vee]

I don't see being in TX or Beyonce is any desperation ploy (if it were, Dems in the Harris campaign would be leaking like a sieve because our party stupidly treats talking to reporters like therapy). They have other reasons to be there, not that I think the state is flipping.

I think people are just getting overly amped two weeks before the election over what is semi-cannibalized EV and need to unplug. As for Nevada, I think the heavy "Other"/NP vote is going to be quite blue.

[j swift]

I agree @Vee and I think it is a strategic choice to try to boost to Colin Allred, because even if she looses Texas, if he wins the senate, it is good for the democrats, and he is doing well post debate.

[Wendy]

I'm just frayed to the edges.

I know it's early. I know a billion factors are in play. But when you see news like normally blue Miami-Dade County in Florida flipping red, and see how new sexual assault accusations don't even move the needle against Trump...even after HITLER...

Well, I'm just scared and sad right now. Could we still win? I pray to God or whatever being one believes in that it can happen. But Trump has - thus far - been Teflon, so the 2016 PTSD I keep harping on seems realer by the day.

Edited October 24, 2024 by Wendy

[MichaelGL]

Same. I have some hope about the midwest, but elsewhere I'm uneasy. PTSD from 2016 is definitely a real thing. 

[Vee]

You're getting rolled by the same psy-op they ran in 2022. Junk polls and media overload to try to create artificial momentum and make people assume they are inevitably going to win.

Nothing will move the needle against Trump more than it has until we see actual election results. If you're relying on a silver bullet of some magical oppo drop or Florida going blue as a sign of hope, don't bother.

[Wendy]

Not polls, though. Early voting has favored the GOP based on those following.

As I said, I realize it's early. But to think it is indeed so close is demoralizing. Especially knowing so many don't care that Trump is lower than sewer sludge. So many fellow Americans seem to enjoy the drama and hatred and that is just...unreal.

So, like those following early voting on social media have said, I hope Dems start turning in those ballots if they are holding on to them in ballot-voting states or come out in a massive way on Election Day.

The alternative is horrifying.

[Khan]

In a way, I think it's good how people are suffering PTSD from 2016 and are now hypervigilant.  Far too many of us had become complacent, for lack of a better word, never once considering the possibility of someone like Donald J. Trump running a successful campaign for president.  (Hell, even I had said on FB that the man was likely to win the election, and I was only partly serious, lol).  Despite the decades of ill will that the GOP and the mainstream media had sown against the Clintons and against Hillary Clinton in particular, I believe that the majority of us believed she would win against Trump, because decades of election history said she would.  But what folks didn't realize or didn't WANT to realize was that America was no longer the America most had grown up with (or thought it was).  2016, IMO, was when America finally had to accept the truth.

Regardless of what happens this Election Day, I really hope we (meaning, Democrats) come away from this election cycle with a new understanding of the fourth estate, one that won't be so willing to appeal to their so-called better angels, because they'll know now that those better angels no longer exist.

Edited October 24, 2024 by Khan