The Politics Thread

[DramatistDreamer]

[DRW50]

Corsi was one of the Swift Boaters, wasn't he?

 

Another reminder that the W era and the Trump era are not as far apart as many like to claim.

 

[DramatistDreamer]

[Juliajms]

Here's some gallows humor.

 

[Khan]

As Kathie Lee Gifford would say, that's a "godwink."

[DramatistDreamer]

Overlooking the fact that this is a NYT article, the workarounds that Columbia sportswear employees to circumnavigate trade tariffs is a perfect illustration of why Trump's ad hoc tariff 'policy' (if you can call it that) is likely to flop at it's main goal-- to try to force companies to repatriate jobs back to the U.S.

 

A Winter-Coat Heavyweight Gives Trump’s Trade War the Cold Shoulder

 

 

[Juliajms]

Looks like France is having it's own troubles with the far right.

A deeper explanation of who these protesters are.

https://kazolias.com/2018/11/22/yellow-vests-frances-deplorables-explained/

Edited November 24, 2018 by Juliajms

[DramatistDreamer]

lmao, Politico continuing to shave off what little is left of their integrity with a who cares? poll.

 

[Max]

 

Alphanguy, I believe that the election heads to the House if no candidate reaches 270 electoral votes, and that each state's delegation has one vote. Also, I believe that the newly elected House (i.e., the House that is elected in the 2020 election) would have the power to cast the votes for president.

 

In regards to how each House member would vote, I would guess that 95+% of them would support his or her party's nominee, since supporting the independent candidate would be suicidal for any House member other than a Democrat representing a solidly red district or a Republican representing a solidly blue district.

 

 

Roman, I wish that were the case, but I unfortunately do not see Trump facing any serious primary challengers in 2020, because there are too many cowardly Republicans who refuse to stand up to Trump and his cult (and the awful showing for Republicans in the midterms will do little to change that).

 

I actually do believe that Trump will face a primary challenge, but it will be one or more of the usual suspects, such as John Kasich, Jeff Flake, or Ben Sasse, all of whom are pariahs within the GOP. Those who are serious threats, such as Nikki Haley, Ted Cruz, and others, are too craven to challenge Trump, because such individuals know that challenging Trump would be seen as an unforgivable sin by much of the GOP base.

 

Of course, if Trump’s presidency implodes (either because of the findings of the Mueller investigation or because of some other scandal that has yet to be made public), then the 2020 GOP nomination will be a free-for-all. And I suspect that Haley, Cruz, Mike Pence, and other serious contenders are busy laying the groundwork for a presidential run (despite their public displays of loyalty to the POTUS) in the event that happens.

Edited November 24, 2018 by Max

[Roman]

let me say something you thought I would NEVER say.....I agree with you. I still feel the worst he gets, he will get some primary challenges, but now I have to see...what GOP will rise from this? they need many more moderates in the party, and from what I see, this is the beginning of a civil war within the party.

[Max]

 

It’s impossible to predict with 100% certainty what will happen to the GOP if the Trump presidency implodes. Perhaps a Democrat wins in 2020 but a major recession or some other crisis then occurs which results in the GOP rebounding by 2024. However, even though the GOP quickly rebounded after Watergate and GWB’s disastrous second term, I think that a similar type of rebound is unlikely to happen if the Trump presidency implodes because the GOP is much more “locked in” with Trump than it ever was with Nixon or Bush.

 

Much more likely, IMO, is that the GOP either (1) spends a very long time in the political wilderness before attaining power again (which is what happened after Herbert Hoover’s presidency) or (2) permanently splits up, with the white nationalists forming one political party and mainstream conservatives (many of whom supported Trump in 2016, but only reluctantly) establishing another political party. If the GOP splits in two, the Democrats would then control all levers of power in the immediate aftermath. Over time, however, I would not be surprised if serious fissures develop in the Democratic Party between the moderate and liberal wings (as pretty much all the important policy fights would be between moderate and liberal Democrats), which could eventually lead to the Democratic Party also splitting in two. Thus, a quarter-century or so from now, it wouldn’t shock me if the United States were to have a four-party system.

 

One other comment (regarding something that you mentioned) is that Cult 45 will almost certainly never blame either themselves or Trump in the event that his presidency implodes. Hannity and Trump's other propagandists have already laid the groundwork over who will be to blame if Trump goes down: It will be the fault of the mainstream media, Democrats, and the "deep state." But above all, Cult 45 will pin the blame on "RINOs" and NeverTrumpers. All this anger and finger-pointing will likely lead to a prolonged civil war within the GOP. Whether the GOP can eventually put itself back together after spending a long time in the political wilderness or whether it permanently breaks up is an open question.

Edited November 25, 2018 by Max

[DramatistDreamer]

Who didn't know that the NRA's "good guy with a gun" sentiment would be thrown to the winds once the good guy was black?

 

[Juliajms]

I suspect a relatively quick reformation could occur.  I can't help but note that despite the open white supremacy running through Trump's presidency, he did pretty well with Latinos. He got nearly a third of that vote despite advocating for the wall.  Makes me wonder if the GOP can form a new coalition.  Unfortunately, I think they can do it if they drop the white supremacy or maybe just expand the definition of white again. Maybe it's just my perception, but that seems to be happening already.  I can't tell you how many times I had to remind myself in the last election that Rubio and Cruz were Latino and not just straight up white men.

 

Obviously Democrats have our own problems and I wonder how strong our coalition really is.  The whole Bernie Bro situation makes it pretty clear that the party is plagued with misogyny for starters.  We might hope that it was specific to HRC and the 30 year hit job the media did on her. That's certainly one factor, but I'm not sure it's the only one. 

 

At the same time, I can't help but wonder if the chaos the Trump administration isn't a chance for someone like Kamala Harris. 

 

 

 

 

[DramatistDreamer]

[DRW50]

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I'd seen little bits of this (the part about the White House needing beautiful things is shown many times with Jackie O footage) but hadn't watched the whole thing. It's very informative and Jackie's charisma and intelligence seep through. 

 

What a contrast to what we have now.