The Politics Thread

[marceline]

Which quarters? Honest question. Do you think there are people who aren't going to vote for him because of his age? People who were going to vote for him before the debate who've changed their mind? If so, I'd like to know who they are and their voting history.

The truth is that the press is going after Biden because Trump has no real path to victory. (And before someone says, "People said that in 2016," the truth is this isn't 2016. It's not even 2020.) I haven't seen anyone explain how Trump wins. He hasn't increased his base. He's driven away anyone who isn't in the cult. He's bankrupted the party so there's no money for downballot races. 

Notice how Trump has completely disappeared? I mean the press is attacking Biden nonstop yet somehow Hamhock's not out here doing rallies talking about how he crushed Biden in the debate. For years the press has been obsessed with covering his every thought and utterance yet since the debate you would've even know he's still running. This op has already failed.

Edited July 4, 2024 by marceline

[Vee]

My concern is about the alleged private polling out of some blue wall states (MI, PA, etc.) that is apparently newly bad, where Trump supposedly has opened up like a considerable multi-point lead since the debate. I don't usually go in for this kind of stuff and I think most people know that about me, but if it's real I don't think it can be ignored.

I agree Trump hasn't increased his base and has continued to bleed loyalists since 2016. He will always turn the independent off and lose more. That is his major weakness. My concern now is getting Biden in front of the cameras as much as possible to prove who he still is, and pushing back on the Times, A.G. Sulzberger and much of the Beltway media's concerted campaign to take revenge on him for their boredom and loss of access and book deals over the last four years, so he can regain momentum and strength. Then there's the big donor revolt he needs to stop.

There is a lot of 2016 in this summer in that the press were bored, put their thumb on the scale against the Democrat they deeply resented and were tired of and are ignoring Trump bc they think he is baked in (and also fun for them). The difference is Hillary never gave them the kind of opening Joe did last week. We're lucky it's early.

[DRW50]

I do think there's a chance that Trump has gotten new voters since 2016 and 2020. Many younger voters don't have a clear memory of his time as President. There is a constant drumbeat from the media about how much better the economy was then and how bad inflation is now. There's been a real shift to the right on a number of social and social justice issues (aside from abortion), which always benefits Republicans. The media has gone along with whitewashing Trump's actions in terms of abortion, claiming that he will just leave it to the states, will not go after IVF, etc. People don't seem to either know or care about Project 2025 because they don't care about these things until they are directly affected. There's always an idea out there that Trump was actually a good President ("no wars" and other BS) who just did "mean tweets." And day after day you still have the media efforts to get Arab-American voters to support Trump, with another op-ed from some activist in Ohio saying it doesn't matter if Trump wins because any short-term pain will be worth it due to the "lesson" Democrats will learn. 

Many polls have shown movement to Trump, and that supposedly highly trusted Democratic firm poll Puck News mentioned claims that he is losing ground in NH, VA, NM, on top of swing states moving further away from him. I'm dubious on that poll as apparently it shows the likes of Pete Buttigieg outperforming (Buttigieg is a good talk show guest, but he would lose badly in any actual election), but I imagine it's one of the big reasons for the donor revolt. It's not just donors, it's also slimy media whore James Carville, who is telling donors to stop giving money to any candidate who supports Biden.

James Carville Issues Blunt Plea To Democratic Donors About Ditching Biden | HuffPost Latest News

Much as I have long disliked the man, he wouldn't be going that far unless there was some type of huge alarms being rung in the party. 

In my gut, I don't think Biden is going to be replaced, or step down, but I do feel like the party, outside of the above internal kicking and thrashing, has now innately embraced an idea of him losing and are just going into triage mode, hoping they won't be slaughtered in the House and Senate. If that's where they are, then it means they have given up, and that Biden and his advisors and family are just in their own separate bubble until an inevitable November loss. 

I would almost rather they all agree to try something new and fight to the end than just wait out the clock. Even if Biden can regain stronger footing, there's so much against him, and against the party in general, because of the apathetic, easily distracted public, and because the media hates Biden, hates Democrats, and absolutely adores Trump. I just hope they can figure out something, with or without Biden, to bypass the dying press and scrape out a win.

Edited July 4, 2024 by DRW50

[Vee]

It's been a very long week but it's way too soon to know what the party is going to do overall about the presidency and those efforts. A lot has to happen and coalesce. Biden has been counted out so many times and I believe he can punch back. But it is going to require a lot of media work. I think the majority of the general public, flawed though it is, is more than willing to give him another win if he can meet a minimum standard of proof that he is not embalmed and undead, which I think should be easy for him. He just has to get out there and do it, with more urgency than what exists in the WH press shop right now.

[DRW50]

I have to admit a part of me just isn't sure Biden can meet that threshold many are now expecting him to meet. I'm already seeing people whining that his interview with ABC isn't going to be long enough, and that's something we're going to just keep hearing. There was so much resentment and anxiety about his age and manner already there pre-debate and now many more are willing to say it out loud. The main indicator beyond donors is how many in Congress are scurrying like rats. Once they start, it's hard for them to stop.

[Vee]

There's always going to be media nitpicking of any media hit he does. And there's always going to be Dem bedwetters in Congress. What will matter to me is if it breaks or lasts beyond a few outliers and malcontents once Biden begins to put in the work. All that remains to be seen.

[DRW50]

It's not the media I'm worried about as much as what the people in Congress and the donors end up doing. I just hope whatever happens happens soon as we don't have much time left.

[marceline]

Looks like we're gonna be fighting about this. Fine. It's been a while since we scrapped. 

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Nobody outside of the twitter/cable news bubble cares. This is still a Dobbs election. The NYTimes hates that but they can't fight it. Biden could be a million years old but he's the only one supporting reproductive rights.

[Vee]

LOL you and I both know this ain't shít compared to the old days. I absolutely hope you are right.

[Juliajms2]

Yeah, of course Russia and China are at it again this election cycle. The internet has sadly become a great weapon for for influence in many political matters. I don't see how it can be stopped without a huge loss of privacy.

[Wendy]

While I comfort myself with the fact that polls have crapped the bed the last few cycles, the fact is, right now, they suck for Joe Biden. So I REALLY HOPE these polls are, again, GOP polls flooding the zone.

Because Dump and Project 2025 are terrifying and unthinkable. ESPECIALLY now that the bastard has immunity thanks to his MAGA Court.

Edited July 4, 2024 by Wendy

[marceline]

People already throw their privacy away so I'm not sure that's even a real factor anymore.

One of the things we need to return to is limitations on how many media outlets one entity can own. Sinclair shouldn't be able to own 40+ local TV stations to spread their lies. 

[Wendy]

Interestingly, The Washington Post has posted several Letters To The Editor about Joe Biden.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/04/biden-harris-1968-nixon-convention/

And, predominantly, almost none wished for his removal. (Of course, there was one ridiculous letter slagging on Kamala Harris, wanting HER removed as VP. Ingrained misogyny will never die!)

But for all the panicked headlines that have run since the debate, it was interesting to note the reactions. One letter even invoked Reagan and HIS memory issues, and the good cabinet he had surrounding him.

[marceline]

I think of us as this site's Professor X and Magneto. We've seen some stuff but we know what matters. 

Edited July 5, 2024 by marceline

[I Am A Swede]

As expected the general election in the UK has resulted in a landslide victory for Labour and Rishi Sunak has announced that he will step down as leader of the Conservative Party.

The Liberal Democrats also had a great night, whereas the SNP (Scottish National Party) had a disastrous night.

With two seats left to count we have:

Labour 412 (+211)

Conservative 121 (-250)

Liberal Democrats 71 (+63)

Scottish National Party 9 (-38)