The Politics Thread

[Scotty]

Haha...not so funny now, eh Mr. Santorum? LOL

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/03/guam-santorum-apology-primary-romney.html

[DRW50]

Unsurprisingly, Obama's poll numbers are falling again, due to gas prices. This is why I can't get behind "Obama will win no matter who he's up against." The media loves Romney and with the $$$$$$$ and the general anger many in the public feel, he could easily win.

This article is a good example of what is wrong with politics today. Marco Rubio, who has done little to nothing in his political career but get hype and be used as some example of how far right views are OK because a minority has them too, is now spending all kinds of time and money on his image. This is the type of thing Republicans hated Obama for, and yet it's perfectly fine for Rubio.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/73908.html

Speaking of the media, now that there are a few primaries in the deep South, it's time for more, "Look at these polls which show how backwards Southerners are!" That always annoys me. My guess is you can shape this type of poll for a group almost anywhere, especially if they are conservative. I get so tired of this slant, which is designed to feed ugly stereotypes and does nothing but just make divisions even harder.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/03/13/obama-s-a-muslim-ppp-polls-in-south-appear-designed-to-bring-out-bias.html

[DRW50]

As Ronald Reagan immortalized - here we go again. In spite of a huge money and media advantage, Romney lost both Mississippi and Alabama. Not only did he not win, but he may not even get second place in either state. Considering how much of the vote Santorum and Gingrich split, that's incredible.

Romney is the default nominee, due to his delegate lead, and Gingrich will stay in the race, kneecapping Santorum, perhaps due to his big money backer. Romney is saying, hey, we're doing fine, never thought we'd win these states anyway.

That's great, except...

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=EA4CB0AC-7ABA-4118-92CD-80FF55A63A46

and it's very awkward to say your opponent is on the "desperate end", and end up losing to him not once, but twice.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/13/romney-says-santorum-at-desperate-end-of-campaign/

Most awkward is that Drudge, who still dominates much of the media coverage and is something of an icon for many in the press, forecast that Romney would win the South.

http://images.dailykos.com/i/user/3/Mitt_Wins_Drudge_Headline.jpg

So this goes on some more. Romney is blanketing Illinois with mega million ads, and the media will rush there to again tell us that Mitt will soon be the one and only nominee. It's a slow motion embarrassment, and one which a politician with any real aptitude would never have faced. Fortunately for him, aptitude doesn't matter anymore.

[MissLlanviewPA]

I actually read that one. Granted, it didn't say much that I didn't already know, but having family from Arkansas (my dad's parents live in a town close to the OK border), it's always interesting to me to read about Southern politics and how things have changed electorally in different Southern states--and how long those changes have taken place in each of them.

Edited March 14, 2012 by MissLlanviewPA

[Scotty]

As expected, Romney wins American Samoa: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2012/03/13/international/i223521D77.DTL

I had not realized there were so many Mormons living in the U.S. Pacific territories until I heard them mention it on MSNBC and read something about it online the other day.

Now, only the results from Hawaii have yet to come in, but it appears as if it may be another win for Romney

As a Democrat, I really hope all this primary mess continues through the convention in August. I have never seen such a disorganized mess.

[MissLlanviewPA]

+1. This has been more fun than I could have ever expected.

[Scotty]

I agree...me too. Between this and the Rush Limbaugh mess, I am just loving how the Republicans are just so screwed up right now. If I were Obama, I would just go ahead and start thinking about any possible renovations that are needed in the White House, because it is looking more and more like he'll be there another 4 years.

Now all we need is for Sarah Palin to keep trying to stay in the spotlight and say more stupid things.

[DRW50]

Obama could easily lose. The media loves Romney, they love most of his potential running mates, like Marco Rubio. Romney will have huge money. Many in the country instinctively hate or fear Obama. Gas prices and the economy continue to be a factor.

[Max]

I have little doubt that Obama will win re-election, given the GOP's incompetence. However, I am perplexed as to what you think Barry will accomplish in his next four years. I suspect that some believe that his second term will see a return to the sizzling economy of the 90s and make gay marriage the law of the land. However, I would strongly caution against such pie-in-the-sky expectations, given that the president failed miserably when it came to the following that he promised for his first term: closing Gitmo, healing the red state/blue state divide, reducing the deficit, signing into law a health care plan with a "public option," and always placing principle above politics. And, history has almost always--if not always--shown that a president's second term is far inferior to the first.

Edited March 14, 2012 by Max

[juppiter]

This is true. The progressive phase of Barack Obama's presidency was 08-10. It's over and will likely not come back during his second term, as I don't see the Democrats taking back the house this year, and it'd be downright bizarre if they were able to in 2014.

But the Republicans had no incentive to work with Obama during his first term. Their goal was to defeat him in 2012. If they're faced with another 4 years of Obama and no chance at Obama's re-election after that, there is incentive to compromise. When people talk about the great compromises of Clinton and the GOP in the 90s, they forget that those compromises did not happen in 94-96. 94-96 were just like the past two years. Most of the great compromises and the elimination of the budget deficit happened only during Clinton's second term.

For me I want a second term for Barack in order to block a lot of the scary things the GOP is talking about doing. He has no chance at any progressive reforms in his second term, unfortunately, so it is just about blocking what the GOP wants to do for me.

[Roman]

Well, at least a woman in this country won't have to be forced to have a procedere that is no one else's business but hers. I just love these Republicans who talk small government and staying out of people's homes and then spend their whole time shoving very invasive legislation down everyone's throats. Romney wants to shut down PP? Santorum calls THE PRESIDENT a snob becuase he went to college? Newt is staying in just to piss folks off, while he draws up plans for a space station near the Klingon Home World. And Paul says that tornado victims shouldn't get federal aid because that's just taking money from taxpayers.

And the POTUS is worst than these ignorant clowns? I think not.

[DRW50]

Republicans are never going to compromise. If they do, they will be tossed out in their primaries. Look at this year's primaries so far. Republicans spent all of 2011 and so far 2012 going NO, NO, HELL NO, and they are still either losing primaries or getting close (Alabama last night).

[Scotty]

Exactly. With the economy still in trouble and unemployment high, the Republicans are doing whatever they can steer conversation away from the real issues. Rick Santorum should just keep his mouth shut, Newt Gingrich needs to realize that he is not, and really never has been, as popular as he thinks he is, and Ron Paul is just a crazy ole kook.

Romney is just too slick and laid back. And he continues to stick his foot in his mouth with comments such as liking cheesy grits, his friends being football team owners, and talking about all the fancy cars he and his wife drive. Yet he is better than Santorum, whose ideas are just too far out there and dangerous. Why are we still talking about the government controlling what women can and can not do with their own bodies, when so many people are out of work and losing their homes? It's just stupid. Much like so many of these southern states trying to implement blatantly racist voter registration laws now? And why stay so focused on striking down gay marriage when the institution of marriage has already clearly been desecrated with increasingly high divorce rates among heterosexual couples?

Why not focus on the real issues of the day instead of continually trying to restrict an individual's personal rights and freedoms where the government clearly has no business being in the first place? That's one thing I will never understand.

[Scotty]

No one, and certainly not me, believes that we will return to the glory days of the 1990s anytime soon, however I think things are very slowly starting to improve from where they have been the past few years. And I agree that second terms for presidents have historically been worst than the first....just look at what happened during Bush's last four years in office for instance. And it hasn't helped Obama that he has to spend the past four years cleaning up his predecessor's messes.

The Republicans have had four years to put together a plan on how to take down Obama and this is the best they can do? That's what happens when you refuse to compromise at all and vow to derail the Democrats by going against anything and everything that they try to do. And it sickens me that two of the biggest supports of that "no" agenda...Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul...are both my home state of Kentucky.

[wingwalker]

As for Obama's re-election chances & possible 2nd term, I think Obama will probably get re-elected, but I don't think it's "inevitable" at all. For one, it's hard to unseat a President. Only 3 (4 if you count Ford) President's have failed to get re-elected to a second term in the past 100 years. You don't have to be popular to be re-elected, you just have to popular in the states that count. Obama got elected President with 365 electoral votes and 52.9%. Obama can probably only win 45% of the popular vote and still get enough electoral votes to win. The greatest asset a sitting president has is undecided voters. If come October, there is still 5-6% of the population undecided, history has shown undecided always break for the incumbent Present because if the challenger hasn't closed the deal by then, they won't in the last 30 days and undecided tend to keep the "evil they know over the evil they don't know".

Other thing Obama has in his favor is what's motivating the Republicans. The motivation driving the GOP is they want to unseat Obama, there isn't much motivation to elect Romney (who will be the nominee). That rarely works in Presidential elections. You have to be motivated to vote FOR someone. People weren't just voting against Bush 1, people liked Clinton and voted for him. People didn't just vote against Carter, they liked Reagan and vote FOR Reagan. At this stage there is no force of people who genuinely like and plan to vote for Romney, all they have is that they hate Obama and that's not enough.

If Obama gets a second term, I wouldn't expect much either, rarely does anything major get done in the second term of a President.

I think the Dems can gain control of the House back They only need 23 seats to regain control and even with GOP in charge of most of the redistricting, that won't be too hard to hard in a Presidential election year, especially if Obama wins. I think Dems will probably loose Senate though.

Edited March 15, 2012 by wingwalker