August 15-19, 2011

[OLTL_fan]

With all the pre-emptions and the 2 Todds not being featured as much, I expect OLTL to fall next week but I'll worry about that next week.

[Carolyn1980]

I have a feeling OLTL is going to do a Victor/Todd murder mystery, which may keep ratings high through the fall.

(And about your other comment....total viewers and households mean nothing to networks or advertisers. In the only thing that matters, OLTL continued to climb.....That said, I don't watch the show anymore, anyway).

[aMLCproduction]

GH beat OLTL on Monday. Y&R keeps getting lower and lower. This is the second or third week that they had 4.2 million viewers one day of the week.

I just hope and pray MAB and Hacks are on their way out

If thats the case then look at B&B dead last.

[JONNYSBRO]

Ratings will most likely fall all across board due to preemptions so we could be having a pretty good drop week.

[MontyB]

Don't know why some continue to ignore that fact. Well, I do know, it's ignored when it doesn't make their point. Anyway, look at those demos. Y&R, GH and OLTL are close.

[Carolyn1980]

OLTL will definitely fall next week due to the pre-emptions. When NYC's 0.0 demo rating (along with other big east coast cities 0.0 demo ratings) is factored in, OLTL will drop, no way around it.

Yep, dead last, and unlikely to be renewed past its November 2013 contract expiration.

I think they're just not educated about ratings. They don't know enough about them to know that Households/TotalViewers don't matter. Advertisers don't buy based on viewers; they buy based on WHO is watching. Some soap fans just don't understand that, or know about that, I guess.

[MontyB]

You're sweet C, but I don't think that's it.

Anyway, I agree I think OLTL will go down next week. Was watching my DVR and we got interrupted here in NYC again because of the impending storm. It doesn't really matter. It's been doing pretty decently for months now.

[EricMontreal22]

Exactly. I really don't get though why that hasn't changed somewhat--the demo that they all want more and more now isn't even home to watch the soaps at that time. Wouldn't it make sense to try to play up the older demo? (Yes I know advertisers don't find them as desirable for many reasons, but it still baffles me).

[Carolyn1980]

It's not that the 50+ demo is undesirable (that's a myth), it's that the 50+ demo is easy to find, so it's cheap to advertise for. Just about every show on TV has a huge 50+ audience, so advertisers aren't willing to pay a premium for them. (They can advertise on just about any primetime show and reach a substantial 50+ audience). They pay a premium for viewers that are more difficult to find, and those are the key demos.

Advertising rates are set by certain demos on broadcast TV, and never on households/viewers. Those demos are:

Women 18-49 for daytime.

Adults 25-54 for morning news shows, network evening news, and Sunday news shows.

Adults 18-49 for primetime shows, and late night shows. (A BIG premium is paid for men 18-34 in primetime, since they are notoriously difficult to find....and the CW sells based on women 18-34).

Then there are the niche markets, like Nickelodeon for instance, who sells based on the 2-11 demo (seriously).

There is NO PROGRAM that makes money based on households/viewers, period. Even the SuperBowl is sold based on its 18-49 potential.

[MontyB]

Great breakdown, Carolyn. Very informative.

My point before was, there are long time posters that know the deal as far as the soap are concerned. .

[Soapsuds]

Hey Eric

I am an older viewer and not in the demo wanted but i do more shop swapping than anyone. I dont stay with one product unless I truly love it.

[chyti]

Agree the only numbers that matters are the demos but the problem is the demos are bad regardless of OLTL gains and the fact that Y&R is falling is an indication that and I know some don't want to believe this but ABC was right in cancelling AMC/OLTL. 1.1-1.2 demos are what primetime repeats gets, the daytime environment can no longer sustain soaps like it or not that is the reality the audience is just not there. Moving them online and possibly to a cable channel may be the best thing for the genre where smaller numbers are acceptable.

[MontyB]

Believe it or not, I won't disagree with that. I'm really hoping some cable channel will pick up OLTL..........yeah and AMC too . Would love to see the shows produced without interference from the Big 3

[Carolyn1980]

Well, to put part of that in perspective....even at the peak of the soap ratings in the 1980's, they were also doing no better than what primetime repeats were getting, lol. That 8.0-9.0 rating in the 80's was at times even lower than repeats in primetime were getting at the time. (And in the 18-49 demo, Y&R, GH, and OLTL have been the top shows in daytime for most of the summer).

That said, yes, daytime soaps are no longer as profitable as they once were....but OLTL was still profitable when it was canceled. And for The Revolution to retain the same profitability for ABC, it would still have to garner at least a 0.8 in the key women 18-49 demo...and there is no guarantee it will.

I do believe this is the end for all soaps, though. Despite Bob Greenblatt's recent endorsement of DAYS, there is no way it gets renewed again past September 2013. And B&B and Y&R are dead in November 2013 and September 2014, respectively.

Ironically, though, if The Chew bombs out of the gate, ABC might be smart to work out a deal with PP to continue to air OLTL until Katie Couric's show kicks off next fall....and maybe beyond if The Revolution also tanks and/or GH doesn't show a substantial women 18-49 demo lead over OLTL.

[chyti]

Well, what is profitable to you may not be to Disney and unless you know exact numbers and can state them I am going leave the money issue alone because if OLTL was as profitable as you are stating it would not be getting cancelled. Bottom line is Disney likes making money and if these soaps were making them money on the level that they wanted they wouldn't be where they are now.

I really doubt that OLTL is ever going to see it's self on ABC daytime again, I could be wrong but I am thinking that if either The Chew or Revolution fail that ABC will just go with another talk show. I just really doubt that ABC leased OLTL and will now turn around and pay PP to air them in their orignal spot that is not smart business at all, if Disney had an indication of changing their minds with OLTL they would have jumped on the PP plan and air them on one of their cable channels (Soapnet would have been a great outlet until it changed to Disney Jr, with it's built in soap audience).