December 28, 2009 - January 1, 2010

[Soapsuds]

OLTL rebounded nicely from last week. Did Kish bring in the ratings for Wednesday? I am curious to see.

[Toups]

Nelson's ratings are correct.

Yes every soap went up big, getting 300,000-500,000 Total Viewers, but the most staggering number was Y&R gaining 657,000 in one week! With Y&R losing big a couple weeks ago, I didn't think it would beat last year's NYE week, but it did by 195,000. Another wow factor is Y&R hitting 2.0 in W18-49! Seriously, a 2.0? (when as the last time that happened? don't have my archives with me right now) And almost 1.3 million in W18-49 viewers. Wow.

Other than that, nothing really stands out. As expected, it was a great week for soaps, especially Y&R.

Total: 5,580,000 (+657,000)

HH: 3.9 (+.4)

W18-49: 2.0 (+.4)

Mon and Wed: 4.0

You just don't see big gains like that any more, even for NYE week.

Full ratings will be posted probably Saturday night.

[Y&RWorldTurner]

Thanks for confirming Nelson's ratings, Toups!

Y&R and other soaps are going to fall massively next week, but especially Y&R. No way will they keep those holiday increases, I would be very surprised if the drop off isn't huge...

I'm especially surprised Y&R went up so much, given that not much "must see" stuff happened last week, I guess one could claim the crummy plane crash, but that wasn't any huge event (nor was it promoted in promos) and was over with by the next episode.

[DRW50]

I wonder if this is because of the cold weather. In the UK a lot of shows, especially the soaps, have gained about 2+ million extra viewers because of the freezing temperatures.

[Toups]

Yeah, it's a given that all soaps will drop most if not all of their increases next week and the week after. But still, to see those increases (the +.4 and +600,000) is shocking. You just don't expect so see those numbers any more. It's not the early 2000's anymore. I really did not expect Y&R to beat last year's numbers. I will be totally floored if next year's NYE week beats this years.

Like I've said, all along, if people are home, whether on vacation or weather related, Y&R usually does extremely well, no matter the content.

[MarkH]

It proves that there is still "life in the old girl". All of 'em, really, since there were increases across the board.

[Ann_SS]

Those are staggering gains for in week for Y&R. The 4.0 to the 18-49 women demo is an amazing achievement.

Exactly. It isn't about content or quality of the story. It is the combination of external events and people watching Y&R out of habit. This is why Y&R will outlast all the other soaps.

It is the weather. The soaps usually do well in January and February because of the cold weather which came earlier this year.

[Y&RWorldTurner]

These gains aren't sustainable though, which is the true test to whether or not these shows will survive years from now. It's easy to do good when it's holiday or weather related, but what about when these conditions aren't being met?

These shows will still die out, the overall trend is still pretty bad.

External events cause people to turn on soaps in droves, but these external events don't occur regularly enough.

[Saving ATWT]

Once a soap falls below, give or take, 2.0 HH it just isn't worth it anymore if the show is not network owned. The Bell's and Sony should sell to CBS before their rating fall any further. If PGP had sold both GL and ATWT years ago, they would probably both still be on the air. I do tink the Bell's would have good luck on cable. Lifetime would kill to host Y&R and B&B. These shows would create a lot of buzz for a failing network that soon will need to compete with OWN plus WE and Oxygen. I still think a once a week World Turns would be a boost to Lifetime and be the highest rated show aside from Project Runway. Actually, if World Turns ran 5 days a week on Lifetime, the network could run the show twice or three times a day: let's say 12 pm, 7pm and (as filler) 2am plus repeats on the weekend. I'm guessing that the network would somehow make some money on a deal like this. Plus, Lifetime has international channels.

I'm sure there are probably cheaper forms of original programming but this could work well. I know NBC (with ABC) owns part of Lifetime, thus, the show could also make its way onto NBC daytime. I don't understand why these companies do not repurpose content onto their networks. CBS did show Dexter from Showtime, cartoons from Nick. NBC aired Queer Eye from Bravo. In general, however this has not caught on and should because it is a great way to reduce cost, promote your cable network, and reach the 30% of Americans who do not have cable. If I ran CBS Corp. or NBCU my favorite word would be repurpose.

[skiman12082004]

As staggering as the increases are for Y&R is doesn't seem good enough for all the doomsdayers. We should all be encouraged by these numbers and celebrate a small victory. I am beyond thrilled that all the soaps went up. This is a very telling sign that the viewers are still out there. Can't wait to see all the ratings when they are posted by Toups.

[LoyaltoAMC]

I would bet the farm that the gains for Y&R have very little to do with story content, and just about everything to do with people being home for the week for the holiday or because of bad weather and just flicking on the tv at lunch time. They're just not sustainable. The show will drop back to its usual 3.4-3.6 rating with the post-New Year's ratings next week or at the latest when the cold snap over much of the country finally ends. The other shows had modest gains too and I'd expect them to fall back too. It's not about being negative or about presenting doomsday scenarios. It's the reality of the situation. Just don't kid yourself into thinking that people flocked to Y&R and the other shows because they have magically improved.

[skiman12082004]

I never posted anything about the quality of the shows. I merely mentioned that the viewers did tune in if only for a few days. Maybe they didn't have to watch the shows online or on SoapNet so they chose to watch the traditional way. We just don't know because we don't have that data. I am just happy that the soaps can still have hefty week to week increases especially since we're to believe the end of the genre is so near.

[MarkH]

To kind of prove Alvin's point, but maybe to make another one: The 3.9 uptick for Y&R this last week is interesting, but nothing noteworthy. It is more or less within the range of typical weekly fluctuation that we see.

At the same time, staring at this again, it is so striking to note the "periods" of this show:

- freefall throughout the Alden era...just BLEEDING households

- but then what we see, midway through Smith's tenure, is that the bleeding stops. The general trend is more or less stable. It remains surprising that they opted to replace Smith with Latham

- very very slight uptick (positive trend) in the first half of Latham's tenure...until the legacy team leaves

- Then, and these are what always surprise me, a PRECIPITOUS drop of a 0.5 HH in the middle of Latham (disgusted viewers tuning out en masse? really?), followed by continued stability

- Arena Bell and Griffith take over, and there is ANOTHER PRECIPTOUS drop of 0.5 HH. This is the period that many called "boring"

- Griffith leaves, and the bleeding stops. Arena Bell actually trends up to gain most of what she lost (and it is a very clear trend), but then she loses an equal amount at the same rate. So, by the middle of 2009, she's back to her lows.

- the second half of 2009, though, Arena Bell seems to be clawing up a bit again.

Taking the long view, though, you sort of see that there were a few periods of "steady state"--no major losses despite weekly fluctuations: the second half of Smith/early Latham, the second half of Latham after her big drop. And, in the long view, Arena Bell after her drop. Arena Bell basically quickly got the ratings to 3.5...and she's hung there for the past 2 years.

In this market, maybe 2 years of stability ain't bad?

I don't have these data for all soaps, but I kind of wanted to test Angela's "seasonal fluctuation" idea. So I plotted each of the years of data I have weeklies on (full or partial since 1999; broken parts in the lines show where I have missing data) on a common 52-week schedule. Here is what I got:

There clearly is a sense that viewers are lost in the first third of most years. The big negative slopes (especially in the earlier years) appear to occur in the first 20 weeks, and then the summer seems like a period of relative stability. Autumn mostly looks like the time when ratings rebound a little...but not in all years. 2001, for example, shows quite an autumn dip. And then, sure enough, after Thanksgiving most years there is a little uptick. Of course, the sad 'big picture' story is that each year, the line for that season falls beneath the previous year's.

[mamasita]

I returned to watch Melody Thomas's winter comeback, and have stayed. i find myself watching live full YR episodes again (and i do not have a nielsen box in my house), i would not say it is excellent but very enjoyable right now. There are a few things that i am enjoying: JoJo is a lot of fun, we need some trailer trash fun in Genoa City, i have been laughing out loud with this new character which is supposed to be Kay's real long lost daughter. Lauren is getting a big mystery storyline soon, we are getting small clues each week. Jack's new love is also refreshing in a twisted way. Adam and Sharon: Adam wrote in a paper that her baby was alive...the dramatic scene is one of the best i have seen in a long long time on YR, it was a WOW moment, i do not think most viewers expected to see that, and that is what good soap drama is all about

ATWT jumped the shark this week with the boring Little Miss Sunshine spin off. i turned my tv off, what a bunch of cr#p. i want to see carly and jack together but this is so ridiculous! reminds me of Guiding Light's last days, horrible!!

[mamasita]

Days is good fun to watch also and deserves the ratings.