March 30 - April 3, 2009

[rangethatrover]

Yeah, I always forget that it is the demos that count. It is so much fun looking at viewership #'s, especially with GH getting what is deserves due to its stories.

But ATWT's demos suck, badly. I know everything I read about that show is so negative, I would hate to see any soap go out in such a bad way (especially with its history). And I don't want to see ANY SOAP be replaced by a gameshow or even Days for that matter.

AMC and OLTL will probably drop below GH next week, in the demos especially. It is nice to see that the "POTENTIAL" is there at least.

[MarkH]

I refuse to accept that only the 18-34 or 18-49 demos count. I'm not being naive...I'm saying the mathematics are changing. It's not that straightforward anymore.

That said, I'm struck by how the "numbers down" for Y&R last week and last year are so similar (-51K, -71K). That's because we're now at the point where Y&R had the precipitous drop last year (massive tuneout due to disgust with the Sabrina story, some gathering anti-Rowell protest, and a general perception that the show had NOT improved and was boring despite being in a post-LML era).

My point is this: -71K is NOT bad...it could be +71K next week. We have finally hit the point of one-year stability for Y&R. Assuming that it does not decline further (not a safe assumption), some of these CBS shows, esp. Y&R and B&B may have a relatively straight-line function (instead of continued decline) for the next little while.

Indeed, in my analysis of longer-term ratings trends, the last year represents an interesting shift, because the actually RATE of absolute HH ratings decline has slowed. If that holds up, then soaps may be entering a new steady state of being a "low, niche-market, stable" kind of programming. And if THAT holds up, it will make the soaps different from all the other parts of the networks, which are still in free fall.

Very interesting times may be ahead...and I'm not being naively optimistic. What I'm starting to see in the longer-term trend is that the soaps may be the ONLY part of the network lineups that are no longer in rapid decline. If true, that bodes well for their short-term survival.

Moreover, this is true on all three networks: Days, AMC/OLTL, and Y&R/B&B. In each case, the shows seem to have bottomed out last year...and now they're staying fairly consistently at bottom...but not worsening.

Longer-term trends suggest that while GH is in free fall, it has the best statistical probability (of the ABC soaps) of actually rebounding.

So, the BIG risks are GL (gone) and ATWT. Since ATWT has been cancelled (I know people don't believe that, but it has...the number crunchers at CBS see the EXACT SAME THING I do when analyzing the trends), we may be left with a fairly robust set of six surviving soaps, at least for the next 2-3 years.

[JackPeyton]

They are not the ONLY thing that counts.

However, they are MAIN thing that counts. Not just in soaps, across the TV landscape, but esp in soaps. That demo is the bread and butter, the key. Total viewers are looked at and taken into account by advertisers -- but if you are selling tampons, midol, dishsoap, laundry soap, etc or advertising a sale at kmart, target, walmart, etc -- are you gonna care more about women 18-49 or total viewers? I know what one i would look at. And i know thats the one advertisers look at.

Thats the reason networks care so much about demo's. They make money of ad revenue, and higher demos = higher ad rev.

[Evil Twin]

Who do you think is shoving it down our throats??

[Cheap21]

GH dead last among the ABC soaps in total counts. Too bad it still managed to get the same HH rating as the other 2

[MarkH]

Thinking back to when GH was the big dog...

I usually argue that creative mismanagement does NOT influence ratings. I'm right, by the way . Ratings would be more or less where they are no matter what--because it relates to changing demographics, viewing choices, at home mothers, time shifting technologies, etc. etc.

But where creativity ("quality", "integrity", "respect for veterans", etc.) DOES influence ratings is in THE RANK ORDER OF A SOAP compared to all other soaps. It is there that you can CLEARLY, UNAMBIGUOUSLY AND ASSUREDLY lay blame at "TPTB".

So it is with GH. You cannot reasonably go from top to bottom of the pecking order...even if it takes almost 30 years to get there ... without relatively huge mismanagement.

Even more acute is the fact that GH accomplished this rank-order switch in the last year.

And the "Jack Peyton axiom" tells us these lost viewers are NEVER COMING BACK.

Here's one where I'll join you in blaming JFP, Guza, Frons and the whole pool of sh*thead that oversaw this plummet to the bottom. Because this RELATIVELY shift has nothing to do with market forces.

[Although a small voice in the back of my head says "Hmmm...the two 3 pm shows, GH and GL, are failing most. I wonder if that time slot -- even if GL aired in lots of other timeslots too -- isn't particularly toxic these days for some reason?]

[Ann_SS]

I agree with Mark that there are there are real life events non-soap related that shape the ratings. I think the demos are more reflective of the type of viewer that a soap is more consistently able to attract which is why the advertisers care about them so much. Notice the demos never swing wildly.

I think that the loss of the 18 to 49 women demo is representative of the problems that most of the soaps have experiencing. We talk about GH, but Y&R has also lost .2 which means that both soaps are struggling to hold on ad dollars. GH seems to be in more trouble because the overall viewership is fluctuating wildly week to week which suggests that they are not able to hold on to chunks of its audience so it cannot build on its demos.

I do think that GH is trying to make changes. They have not had a mob war in a few months, but the writing for its current stories, Robin's PPD, Rebecca's arrival, Luke's boytoy, Sonny/Claudia disgusting sex, etc. reflect Guza and JFP's limited vision and inability to tell interesting stories. If the demos do not rise due to the summer teen explosion, I expect a mob war sweeps stunt in the Fall.

[CSF]

I second that. Can we add Steve Burton to that list as well? Oh and also, Bradford Anderson and Kelly Monaco?

[juniorz1]

How did ATWT get 4 2.0s and 1 1.8 on the dailies but average out to a 1.9? I know sometimes the numbers can be tricky but that doesn't even make sense.

[JackPeyton]

isk im still trying to understand ratings, lol.

[TMOTVSoaps]

I finally was able to get the local market ratings for March 30-April 10 and I will either post them this weekend or this upcoming Thursday. I am sorry in advance for not getting them up in the past few weeks but they were not available for me during those weeks.

[Soapsuds]

And OLTL got 3 2.0's and 2 1.9's and yet stayed at 2.0....LOL

[SteveFrame]

Remember all those 2.0s could only actually be 1.96s that are averaged to 2.0 and the 1.8 could be a 1.76 which averages to a 1.914 in the end and would be a released rating of 1.9.

1.96 + 1.96 + 1.96 + 1.96 + 1.76 = 9.57

9.57 divided by 5 = 1.914

which gives them a published rating of 1.9

So anywhere in that ballpark would work.

I wish that Nielsen would release the real rating. At least it would stop people from wondering how in the hell it happens.

[JackPeyton]

thats is just... to much!

thankfully i have people like you to break it down for me!

[skiman12082004]

Has an official announcement been made one way or the other about ATWT? I haven't seen or heard it. I am really happy for AMC being the top soap on ABC for another week. I am loving B&B again and I would like to see the demo increase for them. Also, Y&R is great right now. Maybe a 6 soap line-up is in our near future.