Predict the final four soaps that will be left on air.

[LoyaltoAMC]

That might've been Ritchie's enormous ego talking. It's really hard to believe that in 79 ABC was thinking of cancelling it. GH and OLTL WERE drowning in the 70s and were probably closer to cancellation at that point. For most of the 70s, AMC was ABC's only successful show. Wow, didn't know that it came close to cancellation 10 years ago.

[Pine Charles]

It's possible that OLTL was in danger of cancellation some time during the 1975-1976 season.

I was looking over the ratings from that time period, and OLTL is awfully low:

1975-1976

1. As The World Turns 9.4

2. Another World 8.9

3. The Young And The Restless 8.6

4. Search for Tomorrow 8.3

4. Days Of Our Lives 8.3

6. All My Children 8.1

6. The Guiding Light 8.1

8. The Doctors 7.3

9. Love Of Life 7.2

10. General Hospital 7.1

11. One Life To Live 6.8

12. The Edge Of Night 6.7

13. Somerset 5.9

14. Ryan's Hope 5.7

[daysfan]

To be honest with you, I think most soaps are safe for a good long while...now ATWT, I think the cancellation of GL only means its time is imminent. Unless a miracle happens and its ratings and its opinion in eyes of the fans JUMP in one or two years, or if somehow it gets really cheap and easy to produce(if it isn't already), it will be gone. Now ATWT hasn't been on quite the life support GL has been, but I think the clock is ticking.

The others....who knows. I honestly do not think that ABC is going to axe any soaps for awhile....I could be wrong, but I don't know. ABC doesn't seem so discontent like NBC and now CBS has seemed. Unless ratings really really crash and burn, they'll be fine. And as long as Frons is there and has power, GH will be safe I think...the only way I could see it going is if Frons is axed OR if someone above his head ordered it(like it seems the higher ups may have ordered Bloom to axe GL). OLTL and AMC....all I see for them in the case of low ratings or anything is regime change, and I don't expect a regime change for AMC for quite some time.

Y&R and B&B, obviously, are safe. The Bell soaps are going to be here until the end.....though if by some small chance, and I mean very small chance, that Y&R someday went before B&B, I think it'd pretty much be curtains for B&B. But even if B&B, by some small chance, went sometime in the near future, Y&R would still go on without it just fine.

Days...honestly I can't say. Around this time two years ago, it looked like it was the end for it. The ratings were crashing and burning, fans were TRASHING the show(some might even remember it here, LOL), Jeff Zucker had made those comments after Passions first cancellation...but then last year, it gets renewed for another year, and even with the loss of superstar Deidre Hall the ratings have been on the rise or at least holding steady....Days is like a whirlwind. One minute it looks like its dead, the next it looks like it could live on for years and years.

[SouthOfSoap]

Wow, this is all fantastic work you have done. Thanks also for the later analysis - its so great to see real statistical analysis applied to something so dear to all of us

The cubic fits are interesting. The only reason I thought another date might be more useful than 2008 is because 2008 may be an outlier due to the writers strike - weird stuff went on there. I guess one could include data up to the end of 2007 and project forward to see the impact of excluding 2008 - If they are similar enough, I guess my speculation would be rubbish. But it seems like an awful lot of work for mere speculation lol so I don't expect you to do it (i didnt expect you to redo the models non-linearly either so a BIG thank you for all of this again!)

[MarkH]

Actually, I did a better one:

[Ann_SS]

Mark, your latest graph looks about right. Although I think GH will be the last ABC soap canceled without AMC and OLTL as leads, I think that GH will decline at a rapid rate and be canceled sooner than people expect.

[rangethatrover]

agree 100%, I am not buying the GH graphing, everything else is very realistic.

[MarkH]

Trust me, I was shocked...but I really didn't cook any data for that.

I'll let the season play out a little longer, but will check it back when the year has gone on a bit more. Because, truly, I assumed even Y&R would trend to zero. I was NOT expecting that predicted "level off".

[Ann_SS]

IMO, watching soaps are a habit. People turn on the television at 1:00 p.m. or 12:30 p.m. and keep it on. They may change the channel if they aren't interested. Y&R will always have the advantage of coming on after the news at 12:30 p.m. However, GH at 3:00 p.m. will be in serious trouble without strong leads. It is possible that ABC comes up with a popular talk or game show to pair up with GH and change that dynamic, but more likely GH's viewership will drop rapidly and the show will be gone quickly.

[Darlotto99]

I truly belive Y&R will be the last soap standing when we talk about this in 5 years or so

[juniorz1]

I come back from my cruise and GL is cancelled. And threads like these start appearing.

[alphanguy74]

I don't know. I still don't buy the idea that when a soap gets cancelled, the other ones don't gain viewers. You might not have noticed any gains previously, but when the field gets narrower, I think we might. All of broadcast is declining, because the big 3 aren't the only game in town anymore... and the big three need to accept that. Maybe they need to freakin SIGN OFF from 1 AM to 6 AM, maybe that would save them some money?