December 29, 2008 - January 2, 2009

[CassieFan]

LMAO. GH and AMC so close.

[SteveFrame]

That is a perfect way to put it about the bandaid on the severed artery.

That was the point I was trying to make about both AMC and OLTL. Getting things consistenet and stagnant for awhile is what the shows need. Now if it last for more than 2 or 3 months you could get worried or make fun.

But to make fun and call someone stagnant when in AMC's case in particular they have only been at 2.0 for 2 weeks in a row (3 weeks ago they bumped up to 2.1 then back down to 2.0 for the last 2 weeks). But I guess that is stagnant so I guess B&E were stagnant too.

[NYC123]

WOW! 2.1 and 3 million viewers for AMC. Now thats a good sign.

What's happening to OLTL. I am loving the show right now.

[jfung79]

About OLTL, I don't watch it, but if Ron Carlivati's writing is as good as so many here say, what is happening to OLTL is just more proof to me that good ratings rarely follow good writing. Bad ratings can follow bad writing though. I feel like fickle soap fans find many reasons to stop watching but once they are lost, it is hard to get them back.

[JackPeyton]

way to go days! i hope it keeps rising.

[JONNYSBRO]

Well the major thing though is DAYS does well because the kids are out of school. Dena actually had a few ratings spike for OLTL. The week of Daniel Coulson reveal and the week of the execution did extremely well. Dena kept her job awhile because of those spikes. I will give Dena some props the show since Ed Scott was let go and Gary took over has gotten better in the ratings. Also I noticed the day before New Years Eve it was everyone's lowest day, I wonder where everyone was. OLTL is maintaining steady, they have not declined or gone below a 2.0 since October. AMC since Pratt took over has stayed in the early 2's when under B&E it was such low numbers. OMG B&E crashed the show badly. I really hope Grant's return on GL soars them heavily, they need that big spike. So much is being put into Grant's return. I hope it works for them.

[MarkH]

No, no, no. Did I mention no! In a declining market, stagnant is a VERY VERY GOOD THING. It means that your slope differs from your competitors. YOU ARE THE ONLY ONE HOLDING ON TO CUSTOMERS.

Even your conclusion may be false. Stagnant ratings DOESN'T EVEN MEAN that new viewers aren't tuning in (although, new viewers arent...not anywhere). Stagnant ratings COULD WELL mean that the rate of viewer loss is MATCHED by the rate of viewer gain. In contrast, declining viewers means that you are unable to adequately replace viewer loss.

In this declining market, stagnant ratings is a blessing from the heavens, and that is a statistical fact.

So now, for those of us who follow the genre, several questions become pertinent. FIRST, how? Why? What is Days doing that no other show is capable of doing? I'm guessing the answer is "generating some kind of buzz among young viewers"...but this is really quite worthy of study. SECOND, how long can Days accomplish this? The longer it does, then on pure statistical grounds, the closer Days moves to the top of the pack. How long can Days resist the normative trend? My guess is "not for long", but I am hopeful.

What a cogent, helpful analysis. I did not know about the Tri-State switch! See, for those who SIMPLY discount this ratings bump as "holiday viewing", it does not compute. Days' trend (as viewer gain) has been going on for a while. Alvin gives us some evidence regarding why this might be: Passions and time slot switches. THESE are the kinds of things that can meaningfully alter the trend for a soap. To discount it as state-like fluctuation (i.e., due to the holidays) is to take your eyes off what is FAR more important: The long-term (multi-month) trend.

Steve, you always give the factual, non-emotion-based analysis. Everything you say here is gospel correct!

I have tried to refute this argument, on basic quantitative grounds, above. SteveFrame's analysis really is closer to the truth.

I cannot think of a network show alive, today, that would not donate body parts of their cast and crew to hold on to the viewers they have. The era of growing viewership is DEAD DEAD DEAD. Of course, everyone would like it...but it doesn't happen for the most part. Instead, if a show doesn't DEBUT BIG, it gets cut...because history has shown that shows ONLY LOSE...they seldom gain. There are, of course, exceptions...but certainly not in the daypart--not since 1989.

By your criterion (stagnation = cancellation), no shows should have remained after 1990. Just look at the trends.

Again, this is the kind of cogent, fact-based analysis that fans of the soap genre need. My analysis concurs with yours. AMC and OLTL have had, PROPORTIONALLY, the lowest amount of viewer loss in 2008, relative to all the other shows that lost viewers.

Nope, Y&R got a 4.0 on Friday. That is actually remarkable, in light of all the things ZendallFan has said. This is a DECLINING market. Any sign of growth (see: Days) is breathtaking.

Now, I don't believe Y&R is going to reach a 4.0 average again, much as I wish it to be true. BUT, your average is determined by your range. In other words, a 4.0 average rating is NOT EVEN POSSIBLE if your dailies NEVER INCLUDE 4.0 as a rating. The maximum daily rating defines the maximum possible range an average could, eventually, obtain. (For example, if one week the show rates 4.0 every day, then suddenly the average can become 4.0).

There is GREAT HOPE for a show when the range moves up. Like everything else, the secret is in the TREND. For how many weeks can Y&R obtain an average of 4.0? The fanboy in me hopes it will happen for many, many weeks.

Only Canadians have this reading problem eh?

[BlueLick]

What a month of December for the soaps. These ratings are positive, there's not one thing bad about the soap ratings right now even GL, which is expected to stay around 1.6 and 1.7 with its horrible timeslot. The ABC Soaps could be doing better, but even they reached 3 million viewers this week.

DAYS has made the biggest turn around for soaps since the whole genre started its decline in the 90s. This is huge for DAYS and NBC. I think the word got out about the renewal and how great the show is becoming and people are slowly coming back each week. DAYS hadn't had a week like this in two years where they had 2.3s and 2.4s in 3.2 million viewers all in one week. THIRD PLACE, if they keep this up they might be fighting with B&B for second place later this year.

Y&R has officially improved and its helping out the rest of the CBS Daytime lineup. Back to 4.0s as this soap is so hot right now.

[Angela]

19 week intervals for AMC; Averages

B&E's First 19

2,759,000 Viewers

HH Rating 2.2 (2.178) (1 under 2.0)

18-49 Demo 1.3

B&E's Middle 19

2,631,000 Viewers

HH Rating 2.1 (2.057) (2 under 2.0)

18-49 Demo 1.3 (1.289)

B&E's last 19 weeks

2,510,000 Viewers

HH Rating 2.0 (1.963) (8 under 2.0, 11 2.0 or above)

18-49 Demo 1.2 (1.157)

Pratt's first 19 weeks

2,570,000 Viewers

HH Rating 2.0 (1.957) (9 under 2.0, 10 2.0 or above)

18-49 Demo 1.1 (1.115)

-----

DAYS, 15 week intervals

15 Before

2,414,000 Viewers (Including Olympics)

HH Rating 1.9 (1.94)

Last 15

2,743,000 Viewers (Including 2 Holiday Weeks)

HH Rating 2.0 (2.02)

DAYS HOLIDAY BUMPS

12/11/06...*4.....2.4.....08.....3) 1.7/11.....5) 3,070,000

12/18/06.....4.....2.6.....08.....3) 1.8/11.....4) 3,329,000 (+259,000) (Not Really a Holiday Week)

12/25/06.....4.....2.7.....08.....3) 1.7/09.....4) 3,612,000 (+283,000)

12/17/07...*5.....2.0.....07.....3) 1.3/09.....5) 2,606,000

12/24/07...*5.....2.1.....06...*3) 1.4/08.....5) 2,950,000 (+344,000)

12/31/07...*4.....2.3.....07...*2) 1.5/08.....4) 3,102,000 (+152,000)

12/15/08...*4.....2.1.....07...*2) 1.4/08.....4) 2,808,000

12/22/08.....4.....2.1.....06...*3) 1.3/07.....3) 3,007,000 (+199,000)

12/29/08.....3.....2.3.....07...*2) 1.4/08.....3) 3,282,000 (+275,000)

[brimike]

Am I missing the good news for Days here? They're way up from a week ago, but still the same or lower from a year ago in all the important numbers.

[MarkH]

Thank you, Angela. I see no sign of stagnation there. I see what is likely non-significant growth...nonetheless notably when the rest of the field is in decline.

[rangethatrover]

All I can see is that only Days shows a sign of significant growth. (And also a huge base on fans that will tune in at various points during the year)

Y&R is solid.

The entire ABC line up sucks. Loss/Growth/Whatever ever way you spin it or look at it.

OLTL's demos across the board and viewership numbers across the board are horrendous.

Frons should be embarrassed. GH at a 2.1. Embarrassing. OLTL at a .6 in the 18-34- Embarrassing.

[brimike]

I see growth from a week ago... but they're just recovering from the HUGE losses over the last year.

I just think it's way too early to be congratulating a show that traditionally spikes in late December/early January anyway, while ignoring the fact they're still down from a year ago.

When that number has a plus-sign next to it for any show? Then you're golden. But the fact that it's still down from a year ago proves that on a year-to-year basis, they're still losing viewers.

ETA: And it's true - they're up in total viewers. But the advertisers don't care about that number because it doesn't tell them who they're advertising to.

[Angela]

DAYS turn around started 12 weeks ago, turn around as in they wouldn't drop below 2.6 million from that point on. In a 15 week period their 18-49 is up .2, their 18-34 is up .2 as well. What changed on DAYS since the week of October 13, did they bribe Nielsen? lol

[Canfan]

I've started watching OLTL again since Tea came back. While I like some parts of the show its just not compelling enough for me to continue watching it after she leaves I think. I know I'm fickle but sadly I am afraid so is much of the soap audience. I like Natalie but find her storyline a snooze. I've never liked Marty and her being on all the time is not helping. I also miss plotting Blair. I don't think the show is horrible in the same way I think GH is, but its just not drawing me in the way it did in the ninties when I could'nt wait to watch. AMC I can't watch because basically I hate every character on the show but Adam. I just find ABCD so plot-driven I can't seem to hang onto a show for more than a few months.

I think maybe Days is going up because Higley's style suits the show. My friend has watched it since high school and can tolerate alot. She actually finds it enjoyable again and is watching whenever she can. Her teenager daughter is watching with her also when she can. I don't get it but I've never gotten Days. I don't know how the massive firings will affect the show in the long run.