The Politics Thread

[DRW50]

It's unfortunate, if not surprising, that the Biden comments are what seem to be getting the most attention in these interviews of late. I do think her attempts at courting Republican votes are somewhat clumsy and may not help her in the end, but the far left has made it clear they won't support her, leaving her with fewer options. Part of the reason for all the chatter is because they were looking for another reason to justify not voting for her (instead voting for Stein, or Trump, as many of them are fond of Trump), and this is an easy one. 

There are just a lot of people out there on all sides who will never vote for Harris, some due to racism, some due to sexism, and some because they dearly miss the way the Trump POTUS years made them feel. I saw someone going on about how her answers are just like Hillary 2016, but Hillary tried to run a much more progressive campaign, especially after the Bernie primary scares. It just didn't matter to them what she said or did, and they would, as they still are, come up with any reason to justify their vote. 

I'm not sure any Democrat could win the current election, but the bigotry at the core of this country makes me more and more uneasy as the day gets closer. I hope Harris can somehow pull it off.

Edited October 9, 2024 by DRW50

[Maxim]

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[marceline]

Thompson lost a book deal because Biden was too boring and no one wanted a book about Biden. He's had a hate boner for Biden ever since.

As for the suggestion that Dems are in the doldrums, that's just the Beltway press climbing up their own ass. This was my Board of Elections yesterday for the first day of early voting. I went to vote on my lunch hour but between parking and the lines I knew I wouldn't make it back before a meeting I had scheduled. I've never seen the Board of Ed so busy not even for Obama.

 

[Vee]

I think she has a very good shot. Right now I think she is on track to win. But that's me.

I think when the press gets bored and there's not enough news (and the race isn't close enough) they manufacture this stuff, but I do think very online Dem neuroses is real. Too many people on our side are going to always angst over 2016 (or '04, or '84) if you leave them to their own devices, but the reality is we are ahead. I have never doubted the ground/turnout game myself.

[Khan]

Paddy Chayefsky tried his best to warn us that the world was no longer divided by nations but by corporations; but in 1976, and for many years afterward, everyone thought he was being hysterical.  And now we're all paying the price.

The only presidential candidate in my lifetime who, IMO, could communicate to the public the most abstract ideas was Bill Clinton.  He is intelligent, but he's also personable, and able to "make it make sense" for the average, low- or no-information voter.  Tim Walz is another, plain-spoken fellow, though, who can communicate directly to voters without coming across as either simplistic or patronizing.

At the end of the day, however, I don't worry about whether this-or-that candidate can "give good interview."  I don't even worry over what promises they make during their campaigns (although, presenting visions and goals to voters is never a bad idea) because I know promising something and actually being able to fulfill that promise are two different things.  But I DO worry about whether they have the right qualifications and background for the job - and IMO, Kamala Harris is ready to be president.

Edited October 9, 2024 by Khan

[DramatistDreamer]

I am absolutely here for the Paddy Chayefsky references. I have always aspired to be able to write in all three media the way he did.

Back on topic, I have been seeing people warn people who are very much online to be careful of the junk polls and allowing themselves to become submerged in anxiety and fear and doom and gloom. Operating out of fear has never been the way we make progress as a society. It’s the opposite.

[Maxim]

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Full interview. 

[Khan]

My philosophy this election season is simple: ignore the polls.  Even when the polls say we (Democrats) are ahead, ignore them.  Just pretend we still are way behind and then do whatever we need to do to keep the pressure on our opponents.

Oh, and never, ever trust the media, under any circumstances, lol.

[Wendy]

Here's a bit of good news:

 

[wonderwoman1951]

this is an interesting piece. the title is a bit misleading; sounds as though it’s going to be critical. but, it’s more thoughtful than that — acknowledging that while all politicians avoid the tough questions, kamala’s in a unique position. 

free ny times link. 

In Interviews, Kamala Harris Continues to Bob and Weave

 

[DRW50]

Part is the press, and part is general unease because it's more common for Democrats to be uneasy, part is some polling trends like Quinnipac (I don't trust a lot of polling, especially Quinnipac, but Elissa Slotkin's comments from a few weeks ago about Harris being underwater in her state seem to back up how bad things may be getting in Michigan), and some of the choices being made and how they may reflect the struggles in the race (Trump is so sure the fix is in that he's going to have big rallies in NY and CA while certain parts of the left or Dem coalition are now so at risk for the party that Harris has to rely more and more on trying to court Republican voters).  Part is just my doubt in this country.

Biden of 2020 was in many ways the ideal candidate to go against Trump (a nondescript older white man with a lot of Rust Belt ties), 2020 was a dumpster fire, yet Trump still barely lost. He is visibly decayed compared to then, but the only people who seem to care are the people who never supported him anyway. Harris is doing her best, better than many could have done, but this is a country where half or more of the country are seemingly either bigoted or are happy to go along with bigotry if it benefits them. We live in a country where "the paper of record" presents Trump's support of eugenics as a fascinating hobby while skewering Harris for some middling TV appearances.

So much that is in the air right now reminds me of 2016. I am hoping Harris will benefit from not having the decades of hostility and baggage that hurt Hillary, but I feel like so much of the conversation and culture have moved to the right even from 2016, it's hard to shake history repeating.

Edited October 10, 2024 by DRW50

[Vee]

I don't think that's actually reality, though - I think that's just very online noise. Outliers aside, I just don't see the coalition breaking off, I don't see that bearing out in any actual Dem turnout numbers or polling so far. Just the opposite for both turnout, registration and now apparently early voting. And Trump always pointlessly goes to states he either doesn't need or can't win simply because he feels like it to lift his spirits. He's been doing that since at least 2020.

And I don't think it's half the country behind him - otherwise Trump would be over 50%. He hasn't been in years. He's only been losing voters, never gaining them. Not since 2016. And honestly, Joe's win (while a nailbiter on the first night) was not that close in the end.

I can understand being tense or concerned, because I am tense. It's not over til it's over. And it may be tight on Election Night, though I'm not convinced it will be. I don't see 2016.

Edited October 10, 2024 by Vee

[JaneAusten]

I agree with most of this but I am not sure he hasn't grown his support in some areas.  No I don't believe the black numbers mostly because we hear this every election cycle for every republican who runs long before Trump.  The only area I have heard potential inroads is with young men.  And that might be possible. Some of them might buy into the so called "machismo" of Trump.(I know don't make me laugh).

I know many folks (not me) have poked fun at Harris for the fact she spent time on the Call Her Daddy podcast, but from what I have read, Trump has spent time on podcasts younger men listen to.  Well not Rogan of course but others like Lex Fridman, although I admit I don't know the traffic on his podcast.  I tend to think the Call Her Daddy appearance reached a lot of people Harris normally would not reach, but then I am also biased towards the idea that abortion rights will still play the dominate issue in this election also.  People tend to forget that abortion is not only a freedom issue, but an economic issue. The largest demographic getting abortions today are married women with children.

And this feels very little like 2016 to me other than the media's behavior. Attacking the democrat and downplaying Trump's actions.  The most idiotic is the fact Harris is dodging interviews, then not doing the right ones, then not taking tough questions, etc.  But we have to remember the media landscape is also much different than 2016.  I still believe people consume and trust more local press and media, sure that's deteriorated, but those venues have less of the "fake news" response from locals IMO. The national media really has so much less relevance and I really believe people are onto polling. Polling has never been super accurate. Can it capture a moment in time, perhaps, but you can look over the decades and see the misses. And it's always the same trend. Some big name will get a poll right and they become the new polling god(Nate Silver in 2012 anyone) and then they falter but still hold a level of validity with some.  Ultimately they fade away like Silver continues to do. That's our national media.  I won't even get into their abhorrent coverage of our involvement in overseas endeavors (trade, wars, insurgencies). It's so loaded and biased, they barely even try to be honest. I'm no advocate for China, but a lot of their analysis is so bad when it comes to China and it's economics, it's either people are blind, are stupid, or are deliberately misleading people here. It pays to follow some non US media.

Edited October 10, 2024 by JaneAusten

[marceline]

A lot of people never processed their 2016 PTSD and it colors their thinking now.

There's no argument for Trump winning that isn't based on PTSD, polls, and/or vibes. There's no fact-based argument that he's doing better now than in 2020.

[DramatistDreamer]

Does the Kremlin’s confirmation that Trump sent Putin COVID tests in America’s greatest need, rate as an October surprise?